Tariff war breaks out, is the US stock market suffering?
Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that since 2020, overseas funds have accelerated their holdings of U.S. assets, especially U.S. stocks, with an expected increase of USD 7.8 trillion from 2021 to 2024. The holdings of Central and Eastern Europe, Mexico, and Canada account for over 43%, with an increase of USD 3.5 trillion in these four economies, leading to increased liquidity risks. Comprehensive friction is detrimental to the U.S. economy and market, and net capital outflows will have serious impacts
Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.:
According to statistics from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, after 2020, overseas funds began to accelerate their accumulation of U.S. assets, primarily in U.S. stocks. From 2021 to 2024, foreign capital increased its holdings by USD 7.8 trillion in U.S. stocks (including market value changes) and USD 1.4 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (including corporate bonds, etc.). Focusing on U.S. stocks, among the existing holdings, the positions of Central Europe and Mexico are currently at the forefront of tariff issues, exceeding 43%. In the wave of increased holdings from 2021 to 2024, these four economies saw their positions rise by USD 3.5 trillion, accounting for 45% of the total increase. The slowing net inflow and even net outflow will undoubtedly increase the liquidity risks that the U.S. is about to face.
Comprehensive friction is certainly not good for the current U.S. economy and market. Whether due to deteriorating relations, security concerns, or the need for financial stability and the construction and development of the domestic economy and infrastructure under the reconstruction of the international order, the net outflow of funds is an "unbearable pain."
