U.S. Stock Outlook | Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Cars Next Week, Global Auto Stocks Plunge

1. As of March 27 (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.21%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.80%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.58%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.52%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.39%, at $69.38 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.34%, at $72.81 per barrel.

Market News

Trump to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports starting next week, global auto stocks plunge. US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports, aiming to expand the trade war and create more manufacturing jobs in the US, laying the groundwork for broader tax measures next week. As of the time of writing, General Motors and Ford's pre-market stock prices fell by 6.34% and 0.49%, respectively. In addition, Japanese automakers and German luxury car manufacturers are also facing significant impacts. The world's largest automaker, Toyota, saw its stock price drop by 2.04% on the Tokyo stock market, while Honda, which derives more than half of its revenue from North America, saw its stock price drop by about 3%. Furthermore, Porsche's stock in Frankfurt plummeted by 5%, Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes, fell by 5.2%, and both BMW and Volkswagen saw declines of over 4%, while the ultra-luxury brand Aston Martin plummeted by 8.9%.

Wall Street's most pessimistic forecast! Barclays slashes S&P 500 target to 5900 points. Barclays has significantly lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from the previous 6600 points to 5900 points, a reduction of over 10%, marking the lowest expectation among major Wall Street investment banks. Barclays pointed out that this adjustment is primarily based on two key factors—Trump's tariff impacts and deteriorating macro data. Barclays noted that the Trump administration's tariff policy could negatively affect the US economy. Venu Krishna, head of US equity research at Barclays, stated in a report: "Our baseline assumption is that tariffs will lead to a significant slowdown in US economic activity, which will impact corporate earnings, but will not reach the level of an economic recession, allowing valuations to gradually recover." As part of the forecast, Barclays has lowered its earnings per share expectation for the S&P 500 index from $271 to $262 Is a stock market crash imminent? Allianz survey: More than half of Americans are already in panic. A new survey shows that Americans are worried about the impact of rising consumer prices and tariffs, and expect their stock portfolios to suffer severely in a massive sell-off. According to Allianz Life's first-quarter research report released this week, 51% of respondents expect "another major market crash is on the way," up from 46% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The online survey conducted in February also revealed that only 26% of respondents felt "satisfied" with the current market conditions and were ready to invest, down from 31% in the previous quarter. Earlier this month, U.S. stocks fell into a correction zone, increasing investor concerns about further market declines. Since then, the U.S. stock market has rebounded from its lows, but the trading environment has remained turbulent, with Americans closely monitoring the Trump administration's tariff policies towards trade partners.

U.S. Senator warns that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may be fired by Trump, criticizes Trump's behavior as "lawless." U.S. Democratic Senator Warren warned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell could be fired by President Trump. This is part of what she described as a potential purge that could disrupt U.S. markets. Warren stated that Trump's broad claim of the power to dismiss officials of independent agencies means "no one is safe, not even the Federal Reserve Chairman." She said, "If he can arbitrarily remove every civil servant, if he can arbitrarily remove the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), that is lawless behavior." She believes Trump's actions are illegal. Despite Warren's opposition to former President Biden reappointing Powell, the reason being that the Fed Chairman supports reducing financial regulation.

Is the sky the limit? Bank of America raises gold price expectations for this year and next, targeting $3,500! On Wednesday, despite rising U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, gold futures prices still edged higher. However, due to ongoing market concerns about President Trump's tariff policies, gold prices remained above $3,000 per ounce. Bank of America stated in a recent report that gold futures prices are expected to rise to $3,500 per ounce within the next two years. The bank emphasized that the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policies will continue to support gold prices in the short term. Bank of America noted that if investment demand for gold increases by 10%, this new target could be achievable. The growth in gold investment demand comes from various sources, including central banks continuing to buy gold and retail investors' ongoing preference for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Individual Stock News

JiaYin Technology (JFIN.US) expects 2024 full-year revenue of 5.801 billion yuan, achieving a net profit of 1.057 billion yuan. In 2024, JiaYin Technology expects full-year revenue of 5.801 billion yuan, achieving a net profit of 1.057 billion yuan. The total loan matching transaction volume for 2024 reached 100.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, marking an important milestone. In the fourth quarter, the loan matching transaction volume reached 27.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 37.8%, corresponding to matching service revenue of about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 46.3%. Finally, regarding shareholder returns, the company will further increase its efforts to return to shareholders. Starting in 2025, the company plans to announce and distribute a cash dividend once each fiscal year, with the total amount increased from no less than 15% of the previous fiscal year's after-tax net profit to about 30% of the previous fiscal year's after-tax net profit Continuously sharing the long-term benefits brought by the company's high-quality development.

OpenAI reportedly raises $40 billion led by SoftBank, setting the largest single fundraising record in AI history. According to informed sources, OpenAI is about to complete a $40 billion financing round led by SoftBank Group, with investors including Magnetar Capital, Coatue Management, Founders Fund, and Altimeter Capital Management in discussions to participate. Among them, the Illinois-based hedge fund Magnetar Capital may invest up to $1 billion, but these sources requested anonymity due to confidentiality. According to research firm PitchBook, this will be the largest financing round ever for an AI developer, bringing OpenAI's valuation to $300 billion, nearly double its valuation of $157 billion during its financing last October.

Robinhood (HOOD.US) sheds the meme stock label: more than just a brokerage, it's a bank. Robinhood is launching bank-like services. The company will introduce checking and savings accounts to its paid "Gold" users later this year, but with some changes. Deepak Rao, Vice President and General Manager of Robinhood Money, stated that the company's goal is to provide customers with a private banking-like experience rather than a traditional bank. This indicates that Robinhood has moved past its meme stock phase and has become the preferred trading platform for various retail investors (cryptocurrency enthusiasts, novice financiers, and seasoned speculators). Although Robinhood is launching bank-like services, it is not a bank insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Instead, it will partner with a collaborating institution to provide FDIC insurance for consumers' funds.

Tesla (TSLA.US) unaffected by tariff impacts? Not really! After U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, some believed that Tesla would benefit from this auto tariff. However, CEO Elon Musk stated on social media that the impact of the auto tariffs is "significant." Musk noted, "It is important to recognize that Tesla is not unscathed. The tariffs have a considerable impact on Tesla." Sam Fiorani, Vice President of AutoForecast Solutions, a company that predicts automotive industry data, believes that many companies in the automotive industry will become victims of Trump's auto tariffs, but there is one obvious winner: Tesla, led by Musk. He stated that the electric vehicle manufacturer has large factories in California and Texas, thus being less affected by Trump's new tariffs on imported cars and key components.

Apple (AAPL.US) reportedly facing management changes again! Will appoint a global store manager. According to informed sources, Apple will appoint a global store manager, aiming to streamline operations led by executive Deirdre O' Management of the retail department led by Brien. According to informed sources, Apple will promote Vanessa Trigub to Vice President of Global Stores and Retail Operations. It is reported that Vanessa Trigub previously managed store operations in the Western Americas while also handling retail operations. Now, she will oversee retail leaders in Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and the Eastern Americas. This promotion and new reporting structure grant Vanessa Trigub more responsibilities and simplify the retail organizational structure. Deirdre O'Brien remains responsible for the overall management of the retail department, while this adjustment will reduce the number of her direct reports.

GameStop (GME.US) jumps on the cryptocurrency buying trend: plans to raise $1.3 billion to purchase Bitcoin. GameStop is seeking to sell $1.3 billion in zero-interest convertible bonds to fund the purchase of Bitcoin, as it adopts a strategy proposed by cryptocurrency advocate Michael Saylor. The video game retailer announced on Tuesday that its board approved a plan to add Bitcoin to its reserve assets, after which the company's stock price rose. Subsequently, on Wednesday, it submitted a document announcing plans to sell these bonds, which will be used for general purposes, including the purchase of Bitcoin. After the filing was made public, GameStop's stock price fell, erasing some of the earlier gains of the day, and as of the time of writing, the company's stock price was down 7% in after-hours trading. According to informed sources, GameStop is selling these bonds at a conversion premium of 35% to 40%.

AI data center bubble alarm rings again! Microsoft (MSFT.US) reportedly abandons some new projects in the US and Europe. TD Cowen analysts stated that Microsoft has abandoned new data center projects in the US and Europe, which had a power consumption of about 2 GW. Analysts attributed Microsoft's exit to an oversupply of computer clusters powering artificial intelligence (AI). In a report in February, analysts highlighted Microsoft's abandonment of data center leases in the US, which unsettled investors. They noted that the latest move also reflects the company's choice to abandon some new business with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, to which it has invested about $13 billion. Earlier this year, Microsoft and the startup stated that they had modified a long-standing agreement, allowing OpenAI to use cloud computing services from other companies, provided that Microsoft itself did not want the business.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: US February seasonally adjusted existing home sales index month-on-month (%).

Beijing time 23:00: US March Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index.

Next day Beijing time 04:30: 2025 FOMC voting member, Boston Fed President Collins speaks on the economy.

Earnings Forecast

Friday pre-market: China Automotive Systems (CAAS.US), New Oxygen (SY.US)