Consumer confidence reignites economic concerns, U.S. stock market gains fade, U.S. Treasury bonds rebound, Chinese concept stocks index declines for six consecutive days, and copper reaches a historical high

The news about Trump possibly increasing tariffs has significantly decreased. According to Jiemian News, the Trump administration is considering a "two-step" tariff strategy against trade partners, first using rarely employed emergency powers to impose tariffs immediately, while also initiating a formal investigation against trade partners.

"Soft data" continues to deteriorate, with the Philadelphia Fed Services Index falling to its lowest level since the pandemic, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declining for four consecutive months, increasing recession expectations. In particular, the expectations index dropped to 65.2, a new 12-year low, far below the critical threshold of 80 that indicates an economic recession. Short-term inflation expectations rose to 6.2%, with nearly half of consumers expecting the U.S. economy to fall into recession.

This data directly impacted the bond market, with U.S. Treasury yields significantly declining. In contrast, the German Business Expectations Index reached its highest level since June last year, and Merz's spending plans boosted market confidence, with German stocks rising 1.13%, leading all of Europe. Additionally, a survey showed that more than half of U.S. CFOs predict an economic recession in the second half of the year. Moody's warned that the U.S. fiscal strength continues to weaken, with increasing debt pressure.

Other "hard data" remained stable, with the leading indicator of the U.S. housing market—February new home sales rebounding, increasing by 1.8% month-on-month, although below expectations, it was better than the previous month's sharp decline of 10.5%, with home prices down 1.5% year-on-year. Eastspring economists pointed out that the current data mainly reflects the economic situation before the implementation of tariffs, and hard data post-tariff will not be evident until April and May. Bank of America believes that investors should focus on hard data and ignore soft data, suggesting to "watch their actions, not listen to their words."

In terms of geopolitics, on March 25 local time, the U.S. released a statement regarding talks with Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The three parties reached partial consensus, including ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea without the use of force; the U.S. will assist in the smooth export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers; and the three parties agreed to protect energy facilities from attacks.

After the announcement, oil prices turned down, and European and American fertilizer concept stocks generally fell, with CF Industries Holdings down over 3%, Mosaic Company (MOS) down about 3.5%, and FMC Corporation down about 1.4%; K+S AG and Yara International Group's stock prices fell over 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively. Subsequently, Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed the agreement's effectiveness and stated that any breach would be directly reported to the U.S.

Benefiting from Trump's possible tariff relaxation plan, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, continuing Wall Street's gains from Monday:

All three major U.S. stock indexes rose.

• The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.01%. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.46%. The Nasdaq-100 closed up 0.53%.
• The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, closed up 0.45%
• The Russell 2000 small-cap index closed down 0.66%. The fear index VIX closed down 1.89%, at 17.15.

U.S. stock sector ETFs had mixed results.

• The internet stock index ETF rose 0.9%, and the consumer discretionary ETF rose 0.8%.
• The financial sector ETF, energy sector ETF, global technology stock index ETF, and technology sector ETF also rose by 0.56% to 0.33%.
• The semiconductor ETF closed down 0.42%, the global airline industry ETF fell 1.01%, and the healthcare ETF dropped 1.28%.
• The utilities ETF fell 1.6%, and the biotechnology index ETF dropped 1.73%.

In terms of investment research strategy.

• Ilan Benhamou from JP Morgan believes that as tariff policies become clearer, key risks have eased, and market concerns about an unexpected escalation of the trade war have diminished. Therefore, the recently popular strategy of selling U.S. stocks on rallies should be paused, as investors had previously adopted this strategy due to pessimistic sentiment.
• Bank of America clients sold a record amount of technology stocks last week, with institutions and hedge funds being net sellers, while retail clients have been net buyers for the 15th consecutive week. Amid the tech stock sell-off, net selling in U.S. stocks reached $5.8 billion, the largest since August last year. Corporate client buybacks slowed, falling below seasonal levels for the third consecutive week. Clients sold 5 out of 11 sectors, led by technology, communication services, and consumer staples, but inflows into cyclical sectors indicate they are not repositioning for an economic recession.
• Bhanu Baweja, chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank, stated that U.S. stocks have not yet bottomed, and the S&P 500 index may drop another 8% to 5300 points. This is due to signs of fatigue among U.S. consumers, with indicators such as employment expectations, spending outlook, and consumer confidence issuing warning signals, and analysts lowering future profit expectations.
• Morgan Stanley raised its target for Chinese stock indices, becoming more bullish on China, stating that corporate performance has exceeded expectations. The Hang Seng Index is expected to reach 25,800 points by the end of the year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is expected to reach 9,500 points.
• UBS expects that as the quarter-end approaches, about $100 billion in pension and target-date fund buying will drive the stock market up, reaching the highest level since March 2020.

“The Magnificent Seven” only NVIDIA fell:

• The Magnificent 7 index rose about 0.9%, while the “Trump Tariff Losers” index fell about 1%.
• Tesla rose 3.45%, Alphabet A rose 1.72%, Apple rose 1.37%, Meta and Amazon rose 1.21%, Microsoft rose 0.53%, while NVIDIA closed down 0.59%
• The European car market is sluggish, with February sales experiencing the largest decline in five months, and Tesla's market share further declining.

Most chip stocks fell.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.70%. NVIDIA Bull 2X ETF fell 1.03%.
• Micron Technology fell 2.85%, Broadcom fell 1.56%, KLA fell 0.81%, while AMD rose 0.84%.

AI concept stocks mostly fell.

• BullFrog AI rose 10.05%, Crowdstrike rose 3.3%, Applovin rose 1.93%. Jet.AI fell 8.25%, Advanced Micro Devices fell 2.59%.

Most Chinese concept stocks fell.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.22%. FTSE A50 futures closed up 0.16% in the overnight session.
• Among ETFs, the Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (YINN) closed down 3.12%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 2.25%, and the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 1.57%.
• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, DaShuYun closed down 13.01%, Century Internet fell 5.67%, and GDS Holdings fell 4.82%.
• Pony.ai closed down 8.1%, Pinduoduo fell 2.24%, Tencent Holdings ADR fell 0.8%, and Xiaomi Group ADR fell 0.72%.
• Nio closed up 0.23%, Tencent Music rose 0.49%, First Solar rose 0.57%, ZEEKR rose 1.99%, and Daqo New Energy rose 3.1%.

Among other key stocks.

• GameStop briefly rose over 7.4% after hours, with Q4 net sales down 28% year-on-year, but plans to emulate "Bitcoin holding giants" Strategy by investing corporate funds into Bitcoin.
• The real estate sector fell, with American residential construction company KBH's stock price down 5%. Due to poor financial results, weak performance, and a downward revision of full-year financial guidance, it dragged down builders and building product stocks. KBH's CEO stated that consumers are more cautious in home-buying decisions due to affordability issues and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Trump Media & Tech Group rose 8.85%, collaborating with Crypto.com to launch a digital currency ETF.

European stocks rose broadly. A survey showed an improvement in German business confidence, driving German stocks up 1.13% to lead the gains. Investors are betting on the AI boom, with SAP rising 1.3%, continuing its new status as "the highest market value company in Europe":

European stocks:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.67%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 1.09%.

• The German stock index closed up 1.13%. The French stock index closed up 1.08%, the Italian stock index closed up 1.06%, and the British stock index closed up 0.30%. The Spanish stock index rose 1.21%.

• British oil giant Shell rose 1.5%, with plans to increase the shareholder dividend payout ratio to 40%-50% of operating cash flow, up from 30%-40%. It also plans to cut spending and increase investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) business

After the release of U.S. consumer confidence data, U.S. Treasury yields hit a daily low. German business confidence improved, and medium to long-term German bond yields rose by at least 2 basis points:

U.S. Treasuries:

• The yield on the 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2.13 basis points to 4.3133%.
• The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 1.93 basis points to 4.0153%.

European Bonds:

• In late European trading, the yield on the 10-year German government bond rose by 2.7 basis points to 2.798%. The yield on the 2-year German bond rose by 1.5 basis points.
• The yield on the 10-year British government bond rose by 3.9 basis points. The yield on the 2-year British bond rose by 3.8 basis points.
• The yield on the 10-year French government bond rose by 1.7 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond rose by 1.9 basis points.

Multiple economic data from the U.S. showed weakness, and after the dollar index hit a nearly three-week high, it turned lower, ending a four-day winning streak. The yen rose over 0.5%, reclaiming the 150 level. The offshore yuan fell below 7.27 during the day to a new low in over two weeks, but later rebounded by a hundred points to turn positive. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $87,000 before rebounding over $2,000:

U.S. Dollar:

• In late New York trading, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.09% to 104.167 points.
• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.12% to 1270.29 points.

Non-U.S. Currencies:

• In late New York trading, the euro fell by 0.07% against the U.S. dollar to 1.0793. The British pound rose by 0.15% against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar fell by 0.08% against the Swiss franc.
• Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.31% against the U.S. dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.11% against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar fell by 0.27% against the Canadian dollar.

Yen:

• In late New York trading, the U.S. dollar fell by 0.53% against the yen to 149.91 yen.

Offshore Yuan :

• The offshore yuan (CNH) fell by 20 points against the U.S. dollar in late New York trading to 7.2659 yuan, trading overall in the range of 7.2611-7.2714 yuan during the day.

Cryptocurrency :

• In late New York trading, the largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin fell by 0.31% to $88,145.00.
• The second-largest Ethereum fell by 0.84% to $2,074.00.

Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Venezuela, providing support for crude oil prices. U.S. oil and Brent oil initially rose, but later the poor U.S. consumer confidence report released during U.S. stock trading and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement pressured oil prices, causing them to turn from gains to losses:

U.S. Oil:

• WTI May crude oil futures closed down $0.11, a decline of nearly 0.16%, at $69.00 per barrel

Brent Oil:

• Brent May crude oil futures rose by $0.02, an increase of nearly 0.03%, closing at $73.02 per barrel.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. April natural gas futures fell by 1.89%, closing at $3.8400 per million British thermal units.
• TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures dropped over 2.10%, hitting a daily low of €41.275 per megawatt hour.
• ICE UK natural gas futures fell by 3.45%, hitting a daily low of 100.350 pence per kilocalorie.

Consumer confidence data affected market sentiment, helping gold recover from yesterday's decline and break through the $3,000 mark again. As the market anticipates that Trump may impose a 25% import tariff on copper, New York copper futures hit a historic high above $5.22:

Gold:

• COMEX gold futures rose by 0.35%, closing at $3026.30 per ounce.
• Spot gold rose by 0.31% at the end of trading, ending a trend of three consecutive days of decline.

Silver:

• COMEX silver futures rose by 2.26%, closing at $34.205 per ounce.
• Spot silver rose by 2.12% at the end of trading, closing at $33.7220 per ounce.

Most London industrial metals rose:

• LME copper futures rose by $156, closing at $10,112 per ton. COMEX copper futures rose by 2.56%, closing at $5.2230 per pound.

• Since January of this year, New York copper prices have surpassed London copper, creating an unprecedented price difference and increasing arbitrage opportunities.

• LME aluminum futures fell by $6. LME zinc futures rose by $26. LME lead futures rose by $48.

• LME nickel futures rose by $148. LME tin futures rose by $699. LME cobalt futures remained flat