U.S. Stock Outlook | The Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance on "transitory inflation," is the S&P 500 rebound hard to sustain?

1. As of March 25 (Tuesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.13%, S&P 500 index futures are up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.15%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.77%, the French CAC 40 index is up 1.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.31%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.77%, priced at $69.64 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.72%, priced at $72.89 per barrel.

Individual Stock News

S&P 500 rebound difficult to sustain? JPMorgan sounds the alarm: Epic sell-off may have only completed one-third. The S&P 500 index may have rebounded, but JPMorgan analysts warn: Don't celebrate too early, the upward trend may not last. Investment bank analysts point out that momentum stocks are experiencing one of the most severe sell-offs in forty years, erasing two years of cumulative gains in just three weeks. Among them, mega-cap stocks have been hit hardest, dragging the S&P 500 index's market value down by $5.8 trillion, with 40% of the losses coming from the previously best-performing momentum stocks. Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets such as utilities, insurance, and financial services, pushing related stock valuations to historic highs. However, JPMorgan believes this cannot yet be defined as a comprehensive shift to value stocks, as there are no signs of significant restructuring in economic fundamentals, nor is there any indication that the Federal Reserve will immediately shift to easing. The current sell-off of momentum stocks may have only completed one-third.

Trump announces upcoming tariffs on cars, timber, and chips, hints at possible reductions in reciprocal tariffs. President Trump stated that he will announce tariffs on car imports in the coming days, while hinting that some countries may receive reductions in the "reciprocal tariff" plan to be launched next week. In addition to car tariffs, Trump also revealed that tariffs will be introduced for specific industries such as timber and semiconductors, and reiterated plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs, stating that tariffs will be levied "in the near future." His social media account simultaneously announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on third countries purchasing Venezuelan oil starting April 2. Trump's statements have left the public more confused about the large-scale tariff measures he plans to announce on April 2. Trump told reporters that before the broader tariff plan is announced, he plans to "soon, in the coming days" advance the long-threatened tariffs on car imports Federal Reserve's Bostic: Tariffs will lead to only one rate cut this year, cautious about "transitory inflation." Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, stated that he now believes the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year instead of twice, as increased tariffs hinder progress against inflation. Bostic said in an interview on Monday, "The reason I expect only one rate cut this year is mainly because I think we will see inflation being very unstable and not making significant progress towards the 2% target in a clear manner." "Due to this (delay in anti-inflation progress), I believe the appropriate policy path must also be delayed." Bostic currently expects inflation to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target sometime in early 2027. This aligns with the forecasts made by his colleagues during last week's monetary policy meeting.

U.S. debt crisis looming! Think tank BPC warns: U.S. government faces default risk as early as July. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) predicted on Monday that unless Congress takes action to raise the government's borrowing limit, the U.S. government faces a risk of partial default on its $36.6 trillion debt between mid-July and early October. U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly dragged negotiations to raise the borrowing limit to the last minute, causing unease in financial markets and leading major credit agencies to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. federal government. Despite Congress approving new spending and tax cuts that have led to rising national debt, marginal policies continue. According to a spokesperson, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will make its own prediction on the so-called "X-date" on Wednesday. The X-date refers to the date when the U.S. Treasury can no longer pay all its debts.

Reports suggest India is "cutting off its arm to survive": $23 billion in tariffs on the U.S. to protect $66 billion in exports. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to impose reciprocal tariffs globally on April 2, and South Asian countries are looking to mitigate the impact of this policy. Trump's policy has disrupted markets and left policymakers in Western allies scrambling. In response, India is willing to cut tariffs on more than half of the $23 billion worth of U.S. imports, marking the largest tax cut in years aimed at countering reciprocal tariffs. According to two informed government sources, Indian officials estimate in internal analyses that if the U.S. initiates reciprocal taxation, 87% (valued at $66 billion) of its total exports to the U.S. will be affected, with tariffs on goods such as pearls, minerals, and machinery potentially increasing by 6-10 percentage points.

Individual Stock News

Viomi Technology (VIOT.US) reports 42.8% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of 2024. Viomi Technology's revenue for the second half of 2024 is expected to be 1.2824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%; net profit is 56.8 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 32 million yuan in the same period last year.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) Q4 earnings miss expectations, cash flow experiences "roller coaster." The fourth-quarter results from solar giant Canadian Solar are mixed. Although the non-GAAP earnings per share reached $1.47, it was $0.24 lower than market expectations; Revenue of $1.5 billion shrank by 11.8% year-on-year, directly evaporating $70 million. Behind these numbers reflects the cooling trend in global photovoltaic market demand. The cash flow performance is a dramatic reversal. The company expects a net cash inflow of $66 million from operating activities in the fourth quarter of 2024, while in the third quarter, it experienced a net outflow of $231 million due to strategic adjustments, showing fluctuations compared to a net inflow of $190 million in the same period of 2023.

Strong demand for packaged meats, Smithfield Foods (SFD.US) expects sales and profits to grow in fiscal year 2025. Thanks to strong demand for its packaged meats from grocery stores and the benefits of its cost-cutting measures, global pork production giant Smithfield Foods predicts growth in sales and adjusted operating profit in 2025. The financial report shows that Smithfield Foods' revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $3.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, exceeding expectations by $510 million. The earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $0.54, compared to a loss of $0.25 per share in the same period last year. Operating profit was $335 million; adjusted operating profit was $315 million, up from $230 million in the same period last year; the operating profit margin was 8.5%, and the adjusted operating profit margin was 8.0%.

Tesla (TSLA.US) stock price rebound cannot hide the sluggish situation! February sales in Europe fell again by 40%. Tesla (TSLA.US) stock price has rebounded from recent lows, rising for four consecutive trading days since last Wednesday, with a nearly 12% increase on Monday. Data shows that after several days of gains, Tesla's stock price has fallen over 31% so far this year, down nearly 43% from the peak in December last year, although the decline has narrowed compared to before. However, the sluggish sales of Tesla electric vehicles in Europe continue. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla's sales in Europe in February were 16,888 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 40%; in the first two months of this year, Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by 43% year-on-year, which is in stark contrast to the 31% year-on-year growth in electric vehicle sales across the industry.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) plans to collaborate with Crypto.com to launch an America First ETF. According to a statement released on Monday, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) has signed a non-binding agreement with cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch multiple exchange-traded funds (ETFs) later this year through Trump Media & Technology Group's fintech brand, Truth.Fi. These ETFs are expected to track digital assets as well as securities focused on "Made in America" across various industries, including energy. Crypto.com will support backend technology, handle custody, and provide cryptocurrencies for the ETFs, including Bitcoin, Cronos, and other tokens through its brokerage Foris Capital US LLC. These funds are expected to be issued globally, including in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

“Cathie Wood” remains bullish on Tesla (TSLA.US), boldly predicting the stock price will reach $2,600. Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management remains optimistic about Tesla and predicts that the stock will reach $2,600 within five years, nearly ten times its current price Wood stated in an interview that robot taxis will account for 90% of Tesla's value within the next five years. She added on Tuesday that Tesla's initiatives in the humanoid robot field have not yet been included in this price forecast. Wood indicated that at the given price, Tesla remains more competitive than its rivals in metrics such as range and power. According to information released on the Ark website, as of March 24, Tesla is still the largest holding in its flagship fund, ARK Innovation ETF, accounting for 10% of the fund's $5.8 billion assets. This proportion is down from nearly 16% at the end of 2024.

Earnings Forecast

Beijing time 20:00: U.S. February building permits month-on-month revision (%).

Beijing time 21:00: U.S. January FHFA house price index month-on-month (%), U.S. January S&P/CS 20-city unadjusted house price index year-on-year (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Next day Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending March 21 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 21:05: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver opening remarks at an event.

To be determined: Apple Inc. will hold a developer event in Shanghai titled "In-Depth Exploration of Apple Intelligence and Machine Learning."

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: GameStop (GME.US), Noah Holdings (NOAH.US)

Wednesday pre-market: JinkoSolar (JKS.US), Canaan Inc. (CAN.US)