Dongfang Securities: Continuously focus on investment opportunities in the gold and steel sectors

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Securities released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting kept rates unchanged, which was in line with expectations, with guidance for two rate cuts within the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve released easing signals that exceeded market expectations. The firm believes that the marginal improvement in U.S. dollar liquidity and the opening of future rate cut space are both favorable for gold prices, and it recommends continuing to pay attention to investment opportunities in the gold sector. Furthermore, the steel sector has experienced a three-year correction, and the current position has a high payout; the industry is no longer blindly expanding production, and the profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved; the upstream iron ore supply pattern may undergo significant changes, and profitability in the steel industry chain is expected to flow back to the domestic market. The firm suggests continuing to actively monitor investment opportunities in the steel sector.

Dongfang Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Steel: This week, rebar consumption increased, and prices slightly declined overall

According to Mysteel data and the firm's calculations, the national rebar consumption this week was 2.43 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.19%. According to Wind data, the general steel price index slightly decreased by 1.17% this week. By product variety, the galvanized price, which saw a smaller decline, was 4,214 yuan/ton, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.39%. The medium-thick price was 3,484 yuan/ton, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.57%, while prices for other varieties also saw slight declines.

Industrial Metals: TC/RC negative values deepen, copper prices are expected to continue rising

According to LME data, the LME aluminum settlement price this week was 2,652 USD/ton, a significant week-on-week decrease of 2.25%. According to Mysteel data, the spot copper smelting fee for Chinese copper smelters this week was -2.3 USD/thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 44.65%. According to Mysteel data, the complete cost per ton of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang in February 2025 decreased by 16.22% month-on-month, with profits significantly increasing by 3,455 yuan/ton; the complete cost per ton of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong decreased by 4.25% month-on-month, with profits increasing by 1,156 yuan/ton; the firm believes that photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and AI are all incremental demands for copper, and copper prices are expected to rise further.

Precious Metals: Tariffs may boost safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, gold prices are expected to continue reaching new highs

According to COMEX data, as of March 21, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at 3,028.2 USD/ounce, a slight week-on-week increase of 1.16%. As of March 18, 2025, the non-commercial net long position in COMEX gold was 257,932 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 9.25%. The firm believes that tariffs may continue to boost safe-haven demand and inflation, and recommends paying attention to investment opportunities in the gold sector