Breakfast | During the week of the GTC conference, NVIDIA fell more than 3%! Tesla rose more than 5% last Friday

Market Overview

Powell and Trump took turns "rescuing" the U.S. stock market, with the S&P experiencing a rollercoaster rebound last week. NVIDIA fell over 3% during the week of the GTC conference.

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices turned positive at the close, allowing the S&P and Nasdaq to end a four-week losing streak. After Musk showcased prospects, Tesla rose over 5%, but still marked its ninth consecutive week of decline, setting a record for the longest losing streak.

The China concept index closed down nearly 2%, with Nio falling over 4% after its earnings report, and Pinduoduo dropping over 3%.

Key Focus This Week

In terms of major events, the China Development Forum, Zhongguancun Forum annual meeting, and Apple’s developer event in Shanghai may introduce the Chinese version of Apple AI. The People's Bank of China will conduct its latest MLF operations, and the U.S. and Russia will hold bilateral consultations in Saudi Arabia regarding the Ukraine issue.

In terms of data, focus on the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator—the core PCE price index, the preliminary PMI for March, and the final GDP for the fourth quarter.

In terms of earnings reports, A-share and H-share listed companies will release earnings reports intensively, with market attention on BYD, China Telecom, Pop Mart, Haidilao, Kuaishou, and SF Holding.

Trump Claims Tariff Plan Will Be "Flexible"

Trump stated that the tariff plan will have flexibility, saying, "Flexibility is because the tariffs are reciprocal." Before his speech, media reported that France urged the EU to consider using the strongest retaliation measures—“anti-coercion tools,” even though this is not the preferred course of action.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Appears on TV to "Promote Stocks": Buy Tesla Stock, It's "Incredibly Cheap" Now

Ruthenik claimed that Tesla's stock is now "incredibly cheap," urging investors to buy actively, and stated that Musk is the "most worthy bet" he has ever seen. Analysts believe that government endorsement for specific companies is unprecedented, and Ruthenik's actions raise suspicions of personal profit, reflecting the "crazy governance model" of the Trump administration.

Besides Reminding Employees to Hold Stocks, What Else Did Musk Say at the Late-Night All-Hands Meeting?

Musk announced that Tesla has produced over 7 million cars globally and predicts it will exceed 10 million vehicles next year. The factory has begun preparing to produce the Robotaxi model Cybercab using unboxed equipment technology; this year it will trial production of the humanoid robot Optimus, initially only available to company employees, with plans to sell externally next year, aiming to produce about 5,000 units this year and 50,000 units next year; the first-generation Dojo supercomputer has been fully operational at the New York super factory and Palo Alto, with plans to launch a more powerful version expected to enhance performance "tenfold."

NVIDIA GTC, A "Pep Rally" Facing "Shocked" Investors

Jensen Huang showcased new generation chips, personal "supercomputers," and various new products at GTC, but investors seemed unimpressed, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price. Now, with the triple threat of Trump tariffs, high-efficiency models like DeepSeek, and major clients developing their own chips, NVIDIA's monopoly position in the chip sector is being shaken.

Meituan Q4 Profit Nearly Doubles, Core Business Strong, New Business Losses Narrow

Meituan's Q4 revenue grew by 20.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.22 billion yuan, up 180.7% year-on-year, but down 51.6% quarter-on-quarter. Losses in new businesses further narrowed, and the company is accelerating its exploration of overseas markets, expanding Keeta to all major cities in Saudi ArabiaMeituan conference call: Fully entering AI, optimistic about high profit margins in the Middle East market, and pilot social insurance for delivery riders to start in the second quarter of this year. Meituan CEO Wang Xing stated that Meituan's AI strategy is offensive rather than defensive, having invested billions of yuan in GPU resources, and plans to expand investment in key AI infrastructure this year.

Nio Q4 revenue increased by 15.2% year-on-year, gross margin per vehicle rises, annual net loss of 22.4 billion yuan

Q4 deliveries reached 72,689 units, a record high, up 45.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.112 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year. The delivery guidance for the first quarter of 2025 is between 41,000 and 43,000 units, an increase of approximately 36.4% to about 43.1% year-on-year.

Miniso Q4 revenue increased by 22.7% year-on-year, gross margin hits a new high, overseas store count surpasses 3,000

Miniso achieved double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter, with gross margin reaching a new high and recording increases for eight consecutive quarters, driven by the expansion of its overseas direct sales model and the strong development of the TOP TOY brand.

How to view the volatility of Hong Kong stocks?

CICC believes that after the expected valuation is fully accounted for and before new catalysts emerge, the divergence of funds will definitely increase. To cope with this market, which is continuously rising from the bottom but is prone to over-expectation, the best strategy is to "actively intervene during downturns and take moderate profits during exuberance." If unwilling to reduce positions, balance in style should be maintained.

People's Bank of China Q1 monetary policy meeting: Suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and appropriately lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates

Compared to the content of last year's fourth quarter meeting, this meeting changed the expression from "strengthening the implementation of interest rate policies" to "strengthening the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies"; changed "promoting stable reductions in corporate financing and household credit costs" to "promoting a decrease in the overall social financing cost"; when discussing "paying attention to changes in long-term yields," added "observing and assessing the bond market operation from a macro-prudential perspective"; in the exchange rate-related expressions, deleted "resolutely prevent the formation of unilateral consistent expectations and self-fulfilling prophecies."