After April 2nd, will the absence of "uncertainty" lead to a recovery in the US stock market? Can the market trust Trump?

Trump's tariff strategy has triggered global economic turmoil, with its "uncertainty" potentially maximizing negotiation leverage.

Over the past week, despite the influence of the Federal Reserve's decision and a large number of options expiring, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell indices have all seen slight increases, signaling a "gradual return to normal."

However, Goldman Sachs trader Mike Washington pointed out in a recent report:

"While the upside risks to domestic positions can be said to outweigh the downside risks, risk sentiment will continue to heat up day by day until investors clear the tariff hurdle on April 2 and have a clearer interpretation of first-quarter earnings."

The "Uncertainty" of Tariffs May Become Trump's Team's Negotiation Leverage

As the "tariff deadline" of April 2 approaches, global financial markets are digesting the uncertainty brought about by Trump's potential implementation of large-scale tariff policies.

However, according to media reports citing economists and policy observers, this uncertainty is likely not coincidental but rather a deliberate strategy by Trump's team aimed at creating maximum leverage for future negotiations.

By keeping policy details vague and variable, the Trump administration has created an environment that forces trade partners and businesses to make decisions without fully understanding the rules.

This means that Trump is effectively viewing tariffs as a negotiation tool to address various policy issues rather than a tool to resolve trade distortions.

Will Market Volatility Settle After the "Dust Settles" on April 2?

It is noteworthy that the negative impact of the "uncertainty" surrounding tariffs may be more far-reaching than expected.

Reports indicate that previously, White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair revealed in a podcast that Trump's view is that once the full scale of the upcoming tariffs is clarified, the market volatility of recent weeks will end—likely soon after April 2, as "some tariff issues will become clearer, and the market will be able to absorb and digest these tariff issues."

Blair also stated that Trump plans to provide "predictability" to businesses as early as April, meaning that businesses "will soon be able to plan for the future with great satisfaction."

However, some analysts have rebutted this view. Henrietta Treyz, the head of economic policy at investment firm Veda Partners, stated:

"A new perspective has emerged on Capitol Hill that once we get past April 1, there will be certainty, and the market will calm down."

"Most investors do not share this view; they believe uncertainty is the driving factor behind recent volatility, but they also place equal or even greater importance on the economic impact."

The impact of tariffs extends beyond financial markets. According to Navin Girishankar, director of the Economic Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the effects of policy volatility have already spread to the real economy and communities across the country.

Fitch's chief economist Brian Coulton commented:

"Tariff increases will lead to higher prices for American consumers, lower real wages, and increased costs for businesses, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment."