Breakfast | After PDD's earnings report, the stock price was pulled to the limit, dropping 5% at one point and closing up 4%

Market Overview

Before the arrival of "Triple Witching Day," U.S. stocks rebounded for a day, but the three major U.S. stock indices fell back. After warning about the impact of U.S. government spending cuts on revenue, Accenture dropped over 7%; quantum computing stocks plummeted, with D-Wave down 18%, QMCO down 16%, and QUBT down nearly 12%; FedEx, which lowered its revenue guidance, fell over 5% in after-hours trading; Micron Technology, which provided positive guidance, rose over 5% at one point in after-hours trading.

The China concept index closed down nearly 4%, with Nio down nearly 9% and XPeng down over 7%, but PDD surged 10% at one point during the session, closing up 4%.

The Bank of England's meeting leaned hawkish, with expectations for interest rate cuts cooling, leading to a decline in British bonds and a V-shaped reversal in yields, halting a six-day rise in the UK stock index. The day after the Federal Reserve's decision, the rise in U.S. Treasury bonds diminished.

The Federal Reserve hinted that rate cuts are not urgent, leading to a two-day rise in the U.S. dollar index to a nearly two-week high, while the British pound fell from a four-month high; the offshore yuan dropped over 200 points during the session, falling below 7.25; Bitcoin briefly surged past $87,000 before retreating over $3,000.

Crude oil rose for two consecutive days, with Brent crude up nearly 2%, reaching a nearly three-week high. Gold hit a new intraday historical high for three consecutive days. Copper rose for four consecutive days, closing at a historical high.

During the Asian session, A-shares closed down across the board, while the marine economy concept surged against the trend, with the Hang Seng Index down over 3%, and government bond futures significantly higher.

PDD: Short-term fluctuations do not change long-term plans, entering a quality-driven growth phase

On the 20th, PDD announced its financial report showing that Q4 revenue grew 24.4% year-on-year, which was below expectations, but net profit of 29.85 billion yuan exceeded expectations. PDD's U.S. stock initially fell over 5%, but then surged 4% at the close amid a general decline in China concept stocks.

In the subsequent earnings call, when asked about the slowdown in revenue growth, PDD explained:

"External uncertainties and fierce competition have impacted short-term revenue, while increased investments in merchant support and the platform ecosystem have led to profit fluctuations, but short-term volatility will not shake our confidence in long-term goals."

PDD stated that the platform is entering a new stage of quality-driven growth:

"With the evolution and modernization of the supply chain, more and more high-quality merchants and products are emerging, which will provide consumers with a more diverse and higher quality range of goods."

In terms of competitive landscape, management stated that competition is the norm in the e-commerce industry:

"Our strategic investments in the consumer end, supply side, and platform ecosystem have already yielded tangible results, proving the feasibility of high-quality development as a sustainable growth path. We recognize the necessity of a profound transformation on the supply side of the e-commerce industry."

When asked about balancing social responsibility and shareholder responsibility, PDD responded:

"Our logistics support measures tailored for remote areas have driven double-digit growth in orders from western China, and we have expanded nationwide free delivery services to nearly 100 million consumers in remote areas.

In the agricultural sector, we continue to support the agricultural industry through sustainable investments in agricultural technology, supply chain innovation, and training the next generation of farmers. These efforts, along with our current support for high-quality merchants, promoting agricultural modernization, and improving supply chain efficiency, have simultaneously increased farmers' incomes and created local job opportunities."

AI demand remains strong! Micron's Q2 data center revenue doubles, stock rises 5% after hours

Second quarter key financial data:

Revenue: Micron's adjusted revenue for the second quarter was $8.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $7.91 billion.

GAAP net profit: Micron's GAAP net profit for the second quarter was $1.58 billion, with earnings per share of $1.41.

Non-GAAP net profit: Micron's non-GAAP net profit for the second quarter was $1.78 billion, with earnings per share of $1.56.

Third quarter performance guidance:

Revenue: Micron expects third quarter revenue to be approximately $8.8 billion, higher than the analysts' average expectation of $8.55 billion.

Earnings per share: Excluding specific items, the expected adjusted earnings per share is $1.57, higher than the analysts' average expectation of $1.48.

FedEx lowers full-year performance guidance, stock price drops over 5% after hours

FedEx's financial report shows that the company’s adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $4.51, expected $4.57; revenue was $22.2 billion, expected $21.91 billion; net profit was $910 million, expected $1.09 billion.

FedEx expects adjusted earnings per share for the full year to be between $18.00 and $18.60, down from the original expectation of $19 to $20.

FedEx expects full-year capital expenditures of $4.9 billion, while analysts expect it to remain unchanged at $5.2 billion.

ZEEKR Group's first financial report shows revenue exceeding 100 billion, delivery volume surges 87.2%, but stock price drops 10% at one point

ZEEKR released its first financial report after going public, with total revenue (including ZEEKR and Lynk & Co brands) of 113.89 billion yuan last year, total operating revenue exceeding 75 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin for vehicle sales rising to 15.6% for the year, reaching 17.3% in the fourth quarter, with losses further narrowing.

In the fourth quarter, 79,250 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 99.8%, setting a historical high since the company's establishment, showing strong market growth momentum. ZEEKR brand is expected to achieve a profit of 214 million yuan in 2024, likely becoming the fastest profitable Chinese new energy vehicle company in the U.S. stock market.

China Mobile's 2024 revenue expected to increase by 3.1%, surpassing 1 trillion yuan

Capital expenditures are expected to slightly decline to 151.2 billion yuan in 2025. Shareholders' profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 138.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the capital expenditure ratio for 2024 is expected to be 18.4% of telecommunications service revenue, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly used to promote the deep coverage and upgrade of 5G networks and the construction and optimization of computing power networks.

Apple's streaming business reportedly loses up to $1 billion annually

Reports indicate that Apple's streaming business loses up to $1 billion annually, with streaming subscription users growing to approximately 45 million last year.

Tesla recalls 46,000 Cybertrucks, citing external panels may increase "collision risk"

Tesla stated in a document submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that this recall involves external components of the vehicles, specifically the roof rails, affecting all Cybertruck vehicles produced from November 2023 to February 2025 The recall of the Cybertruck comes at a challenging time for the troubled electric vehicle manufacturer, as CEO Elon Musk continues to serve as a senior advisor to the Trump administration, with its market value having dropped by more than 40%.

The company stated in its filings that owners of affected vehicles can bring their Cybertrucks to Tesla's service department for a free replacement of the roof rails.

Jensen Huang Surprised by the Existence of Quantum Computing Public Companies, Quantum Computing Stocks Accelerate Decline

Jensen Huang stated that he was not aware of the existence of quantum computing public companies when his previous comments led to a sharp decline in industry stocks. Huang had previously mentioned in January that "very useful" quantum computers might take decades to become available, which caused the stock prices of IonQ Inc. and other companies to plummet. At an event, Huang met with quantum computing companies including IonQ and D-Wave Quantum Inc., and listened to various arguments about the current state and future of quantum computing. As of 02:29 Beijing time, QMCO was down 19.79%, QBTS down 19.58%, QUBT down 13.44%, RGTI down 12%, ARQQ down 9.8%, IonQ down 9.6%, and the quantum ETF's decline widened to 2.3%.

Trump-Related

Just after the Federal Reserve meeting, Trump called out: tariffs are coming, hurry up and cut interest rates; to provide more time for discussions with the U.S., the EU has postponed the first batch of countermeasures against U.S. tariffs to take effect in mid-April, reportedly including a 50% tariff on whiskey.

Trump: The U.S. is about to sign a rare earth agreement with Ukraine; the Russian side said that the Russian-American delegation will negotiate in Riyadh on the 24th; Zelensky: The qualification for Ukraine to join NATO has been removed from negotiations, which is a "great gift" to Russia.

Trump signed an order to dissolve the U.S. Department of Education.

Trump issued a "two-month ultimatum," and Iran is frantically buying gold. Amid a sharp rise in geopolitical risks, Iran is stockpiling gold, with gold imports surging over 300% year-on-year. Reports indicate that Trump recently sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, proposing negotiations on a new nuclear agreement and clearly stating that Iran must reach an agreement within two months. Analysts suggest that this significantly increases the likelihood of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran.

"New Bond King" Gundlach: Probability of U.S. Economic Recession Exceeds 50%

Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of DoubleLine Capital, stated in an interview with CNBC that he believes the probability of an economic recession is between 50% and 60%, far higher than most people's expectations.

Gundlach indicated that tariffs are likely to lead to inflation, making it hard to imagine how inflation can stabilize at the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%.

He said the U.S. economy is in a "very stable state" and noted that the environment may lay the groundwork for quantitative easing.

Gundlach mentioned that the market welcomed the Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut expected in June or July He stated that gold, Bitcoin, and other tangible assets are outperforming; dollar-based investors should seek diversification to reduce reliance on the U.S. market.

Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson: U.S. stocks will not reach new highs in the first half of this year

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley stated that the severe volatility troubling Wall Street in U.S. stocks may last at least until the second half of this year, with stock prices expected to remain below the highs reached last month. The firm's chief U.S. equity strategist anticipates that, given the uncertainty surrounding corporate and economic growth prospects, any recent gains are temporary and led by low-quality companies. "My best guess is that this will be a rolling recovery," Wilson said in an interview, "We think it's unlikely to reach new highs in the first half of this year." However, he added that as investors shift their focus to 2026, it is possible for the stock market to reach record highs again in the second half of 2025