U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Familiar plot reappears, Trump calls on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates! Gold hits a new intraday high

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of March 20 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.29%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.50%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.47%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.18%, the French CAC 40 index is down 1.01%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 1.04%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.49%, priced at $67.24 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.38%, priced at $71.05 per barrel.

Market News

Inflation concerns intensify, U.S. energy stocks regain investor favor. As inflation worries grow, investors have begun buying shares of oil and gas producers, leading these stocks to "revive" after significantly underperforming the broader U.S. market over the past two years. Data shows that although oil prices have fallen about 6% year-to-date, U.S. energy stocks are currently the best-performing sector among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500—up nearly 8% so far this year, while the S&P 500 has declined nearly 4% during the same period. In an inflationary environment, resource stocks, including energy (oil, gas, coal) and metals, tend to be favored, as the prices of these resources are often closely related to global economic conditions and inflation levels—when inflation expectations rise, market demand for resources increases, and production costs may also rise, driving up the prices of resource products. Additionally, the physical properties of resources make them an effective tool for hedging against inflation. It is worth mentioning that the energy sector remains one of the cheapest sectors in the market, and the poor performance of high-valued tech stocks is prompting investors to seek more valuable targets.

Familiar plot reappears! Trump calls on the Federal Reserve: Cut interest rates! Trump posted on social media that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. As officials weigh the economic costs of his tariff measures, he finds himself at odds with the Fed once again. Trump has pressured the Fed multiple times during his first term to lower interest rates. He has sent mixed messages regarding the Fed—sometimes calling for rate cuts and at other times refusing to intervene. Earlier on Wednesday, Trump's National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized to reporters that the president and White House officials "very much respect the independence of the Federal Reserve." Nevertheless, he made it clear to reporters that he disagrees with the Fed's growth forecast, expecting the U.S. economy to grow by 2.5% Federal Reserve officials currently expect the economy to grow by 1.7%.

Moody's Chief Economist: The risk of a U.S. recession is "uncomfortably high." Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that as the market reacts to President Trump's tariff agenda, he believes the risk of a recession is "uncomfortably high." Zandi said, "The risk of recession is uncomfortably high and is rising. While I think the probability is less than 50%, it really depends on the president and his actions on this matter (referring to tariff policy)." Zandi indicated that he believes if Trump continues to push his tariff plan, including implementing reciprocal tariffs on other countries, and these tariffs last for three to five months, it would be enough to "push the economy into recession." He added that he doubts Trump and his administration will say "enough" on the tariff issue at some point. However, he cautioned, "I say this without absolute certainty. And the risk of recession is indeed very high."

Fed rate cut expectations ignite a gold surge! Gold prices break $3,050 for the first time, setting a new historical high. Driven by hints of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, international gold prices broke historical highs on Thursday. Spot gold earlier in the day reached a historical high of $3,055.96 per ounce, currently reported at $3,031.21 per ounce; COMEX gold futures are currently reported at $3,038.36 per ounce. Market analysts believe that under the dual drivers of expectations for a shift in Fed policy and global geopolitical risks, gold is likely to continue challenging higher price levels, but caution is needed regarding potential volatility from profit-taking. Investors should closely monitor more details regarding the rate cut path in the Fed's meeting minutes.

Trump's tariff "butterfly effect" drives copper prices above 10,000 yuan! A global rush for trade is underway. Trump's trade protection policy targeting industrial metals has once again triggered a market shock. As news of his investigation into copper imports continues to ferment, global copper prices recently broke the key psychological barrier of $10,000 per ton, with London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reaching $10,040 per ton during trading on Thursday, marking a nearly four-month high. The significant price gap has prompted global traders to enter "transport mode," with industry estimates suggesting that over 100,000 tons of copper are flowing to U.S. ports. Commodity giants like Trafigura and Glencore have urgently reallocated stocks from Asia, exacerbating global supply chain tensions. Analysts warn that if tariffs are implemented, it will not only raise manufacturing costs in the U.S. but may also trigger a restructuring of the global copper pricing system.

Individual Stock News

Trump swings the "tariff big stick," NVIDIA (NVDA.US) plans to spend hundreds of billions on U.S.-made chips. According to reports, NVIDIA plans to spend hundreds of billions over the next four years to procure core chip products made in the U.S. as well as a wide range of consumer electronics or high-end electronic devices. The company's CEO Jensen Huang stated in an interview that this is an important step for the resilience of NVIDIA's supply chain in terms of chip supply.

"Chip giants join forces to save Intel (INTC.US)" is really Fake News? TSMC (TSM.US) and NVIDIA both deny acquisition. Previously, there were continuous media reports that TSMC had proposed to chip giants like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom to invest in a large joint venture that would fully acquire and operate Intel's chip manufacturing plants However, TSMC director Liu Jingqing stated to the media yesterday that the TSMC board has never discussed taking over Intel's chip manufacturing division. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also mentioned at the GTC conference press conference that the company has not been approached regarding any matters related to acquiring Intel shares.

The EU reignites the antitrust storm! Google (GOOGL.US) and Apple (AAPL.US) are caught in regulatory and tariff crossfire. The EU's regulatory scrutiny of American tech giants continues to escalate. The EU antitrust agency announced that it is taking measures to launch antitrust investigations against Google and Apple. The EU accuses Google of violating the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and orders Apple to open its ecosystem to meet interoperability requirements. Specifically, the EU pointed out that Google Search exhibits "self-preference" behavior, prioritizing Alphabet's own services while suppressing competitors' products and services, which is deemed illegal under the DMA framework. Meanwhile, Apple is required to allow third-party headphones, smartwatches, and other devices to seamlessly connect with iPhone/iPad and to open more system functionality interfaces to developers. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the EU and accused it of "overseas extortion" against American tech companies.

Accenture (ACN.US) Q2 performance exceeds expectations, raises full-year profit guidance. The financial report shows that Accenture's Q2 revenue was $16.66 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of $16.62 billion; diluted earnings per share were $2.82, higher than analysts' expectations of $2.78. The company expects Q3 revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be between $16.9 billion and $17.5 billion, with analysts expecting $17.21 billion. The company also expects full-year earnings per share to be between $12.55 and $12.79 (previously expected to be between $12.43 and $12.79), with analysts expecting $12.71.

BIGO's paid user count declines, Huya (YY.US) Q4 revenue falls short of expectations. The financial report shows that Huya's Q4 revenue was $549 million, down from $570 million in the same period last year, and below market expectations of $555 million; under non-GAAP, earnings per ADS were $1.77, up from $0.97 in the same period last year, exceeding expectations of $1.02. By business segment, Q4 live streaming revenue was $422.4 million, while in the same period of 2023 it was $486.2 million. The decline was mainly due to a decrease in BIGO's paid user count and ARPPU, as well as the company's adjustments to the interactive features of non-core audio live streaming products to enhance compliance; other revenue was $127 million, a year-on-year increase of 51.9%, mainly due to a significant increase in advertising revenue. As of the time of publication, Huya's stock fell over 10% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30 US March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Beijing time 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15

Beijing time 22:00 US February existing home sales annualized total

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Micron (MU.US), Nike (NKE.US), FedEx (FDX.US)

Friday pre-market: Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.US), Nio (NIO.US), Miniso (MNSO.US)