Trump ignites trade concerns, another major bank raises gold price target!

As global trade conflict risks rise, gold has returned to the $3,000 mark, and Wall Street is quickly adjusting its gold price outlook, expecting this situation to continue driving investors to purchase more ultimate safe-haven assets. UBS has raised its gold price target for the next four quarters from $3,000 to $3,200.

On Monday, UBS analysts Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo pointed out in their latest research report that gold trading prices will reach $3,200 per ounce over the next four quarters. The broad reciprocal tariffs and additional industry-specific tariffs planned by Trump to be implemented on April 2 will become risk events that stimulate the market's continued search for safe havens.

Spot gold broke through the key psychological threshold of $3,000 per ounce for the first time last Friday, marking a historic breakthrough that signifies a significant increase in market demand for safe-haven assets. After a slight pullback, spot gold rose more than 0.5% today, once again standing above the $3,000 mark.

Meanwhile, the deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy also supports gold prices. Traders are currently pricing in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and concerns about an economic recession are growing. UBS analysts vividly describe this phenomenon:

“In other words, we are witnessing a shift from ‘Trump put options’ to ‘Fed put options.’ We believe that from a long-term diversification perspective, allocating about 5% of a balanced portfolio to gold is the best choice.”

UBS points out that key factors supporting further increases in gold prices also include increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs. UBS analysts note that sustained demand for these investment tools is a key condition for further price increases. At the same time, strong demand from central banks will continue to serve as a "key" structural support:

“Central bank purchases may again approach around 1,000 tons per year.”

It is worth noting that UBS is not the only financial institution to raise its gold price expectations. Last week, Macquarie Group predicted that gold prices would soar to $3,500 per ounce in the second quarter, while BNP Paribas also raised its expectations, forecasting an average price well above $3,000.

Recently, "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach also reiterated his bullish outlook on gold, predicting that gold prices are likely to break through the $3,000 mark and even surge towards $4,000. He believes that the current financial system seems to be in turmoil, and the global trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will not change.

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