Can Jensen Huang's GTC speech on Tuesday "one-click restart" NVIDIA's stock price?

NVIDIA investors are holding their breath, hoping that Jensen Huang's keynote speech at the GTC conference on Tuesday will bring enough optimism to sustain the recent rebound of the stock from its lows.

Investors are particularly focused on the latest developments regarding the company's Blackwell product line, as well as comments on gross margins, the Chinese market, competitors, and growth prospects. So far this year, NVIDIA's stock price has fallen over 12%, although the company has recently rebounded from its March lows.

Data shows that bottom-fishing investors have begun to re-enter the market, with NVIDIA's valuation nearing its lowest point in five years. Rhys Williams of Wayve Capital Management LLC stated:

“There are concerns that NVIDIA's current earnings have peaked, and the performance in the second half of this year may not be as good as they outlined. Jensen Huang may reassure people that everything is progressing smoothly and that the company is not in trouble.”

Stock Price at a Critical Moment: Can the GTC Speech Turn the Tide?

At this conference, NVIDIA is expected to unveil details about a chip system named Vera Rubin, named after the American astronomer who proposed the concept of dark matter, which is expected to begin mass production later this year.

This comes during a period of weakness in the U.S. stock market caused by adjustments in large tech stocks, which had previously driven the market to new highs.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and concerns about large tech companies' spending on AI have negatively impacted market sentiment. Alec Young, Chief Investment Strategist at Mapsignals, stated:

“The market is very skeptical about this stock. NVIDIA's current valuation, combined with its high expectations for revenue growth, suggests that the market believes this growth will not happen.”

Additionally, NVIDIA's main source of earnings is facing pressure from technological changes, as the AI market shifts from "training" to "inference." NVIDIA holds over 90% of the market share and dominates the training market, but faces competition in inference—how much market share these competitors can capture will depend on the execution of inference calculations. Bob Beachler, Vice President of Untether AI, stated:

“They (NVIDIA) have a hammer, and they are just building a bigger hammer. They own the (training) market, so every new chip they release comes with a heavy training burden.”

Another important area of focus will be quantum computing. In January, Jensen Huang stated that this technology would take decades to mature, leading to a plunge in the stock prices of companies betting on this technology and prompting Microsoft and Alphabet's Google to claim that the technology is very close to being practicalDespite this, NVIDIA also has some positive factors. The Q4 financial report released last month showed that NVIDIA's revenue grew by 78% in the fourth quarter, and data center revenue increased by 93%, both of which are the lowest growth rates in nearly two years but stronger than analysts' expectations.

For the fiscal year 2026, analysts expect the company's revenue to grow by 57%, and GAAP earnings per share to increase by 52%. Matt Stucky, Chief Portfolio Manager of Stocks at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, believes that if NVIDIA's stock had traded at the current price-to-earnings ratio a few years ago, it could imply a greater downside risk than today.

If NVIDIA can achieve its performance guidance, with the Blackwell product line performing well, gross margins recovering, and market demand remaining strong, the company will have the opportunity to revive its stock price. Williams from Wayve Capital stated:

"If they execute as they say, this will prove to be a good buying opportunity."