Zhitong Decision Reference | The logic at the consumer level may change, with a concentration of major financial reports this week

[Editor’s Market View]

Against the backdrop of continuous breakdowns in the US stock market, the Hong Kong stock market has withstood the pressure, and the Hang Seng Index's upward channel remains intact.

Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about a recession in the US economy. Although the latest inflation data came in below expectations, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its March meeting this week. Chairman Powell's speech may help soothe the market.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is in a negotiation phase, but new conflicts have erupted in the Middle East. According to CCTV news, US President Trump announced on the 15th that he has ordered "decisive and powerful military action" against the Houthi armed forces. Last Friday evening, spot gold first broke through the $3,000 per ounce mark, setting a new historical high, and gold-related stocks have performed strongly recently.

Domestically, policies are continuously being adjusted to respond to the situation, including the central bank signaling a timely reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates. Additionally, this Monday afternoon, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on boosting consumption, observing whether there will be any unexpected content. The current market enthusiasm for bullish positions has been ignited, and foreign capital is also actively optimistic about the domestic market.

The logic on the consumption front may be changing, as Hohhot has fired the first shot in fertility subsidies, with other cities following suit. In Nanjing, the subsidy for a first-time natural birth is 25,696 yuan. Changes in population structure bring new expectations for childcare and the dairy industry.

On March 18, NVIDIA will hold the 2025 Global Artificial Intelligence Conference for developers. Humanoid robots and physical AI are expected to be highlights of the conference.

Key financial reports to watch this week include Tencent's report on Wednesday, where the market will focus on whether capital expenditure exceeds expectations. Xiaomi's report on March 18 is also anticipated, with the market watching for updates on humanoid robot progress.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

Haier Smart Home (06690)

The company recently launched the Haier Smart Wind Air Conditioner, which is Haier's first DeepSeek voice air conditioner, truly achieving customized air. Haier Smart Home's net profit grew by 15.27% in the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit increasing from 6.3 billion yuan in Q3 2020 to 15.15 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 24.6%.

The continuous launch of new products will further enhance the company's competitiveness. The old-for-new policy has already improved the operations of some home appliance companies, and the government's work tasks for 2025 emphasize boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand comprehensively, with 300 billion yuan in special government bonds arranged to support the old-for-new program for consumer goods. Haier Smart Home is the first domestic white goods leader to globalize and engage in overseas mergers and acquisitions, with a global layout that has seen revenue from overseas exceed that from China in recent years. In the first half of the year, it achieved revenue of 135.62 billion yuan, with overseas revenue of 70.82 billion yuan, surpassing domestic revenue. On December 2, 2024, Haier Smart Home completed the acquisition of Electrolux's South African water heater business in South Africa, with a transaction price of 2.45 billion South African rand. With impressive performance, Haier Smart Home's growth is attributed to its leading position in the refrigerator and washing machine sectors, its globalization strategy, and the significant contribution of its high-end brand Casarte. Through mergers and investments, Haier Group now owns eight listed companies, with total revenue exceeding 400 billion yuan. The company stated that the San Wing Bird has undergone comprehensive upgrades through deep integration with DeepSeek, relying on multiple cutting-edge technologies from DeepSeek In recent years, the company has continuously increased its investment in robot technology research and development as well as market expansion. The home robot industry is based on a medium to long-term development strategy for the next five to ten years, focusing on developing a product matrix of service robots aimed at home application scenarios. Haier has improved operational efficiency through digital transformation, continuously enhancing its operational efficiency.

【Industry Observation】

An institution's interpretation of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" exceeding expectations:

Expectation Difference 1: The relaxation of the three-child policy is significant, increasing support for childbirth and child-rearing, and researching the establishment of a childcare subsidy system;

Expectation Difference 2: For the first time, the stock market is mentioned, broadening channels for property income, implementing multiple measures to stabilize the stock market, and promoting consumption documents mentioning stabilizing the stock market;

Expectation Difference 3: For the first time, games are mentioned, supporting the development of original intellectual property (IP) brands, promoting consumption of animation, games, e-sports, and related derivatives, and expanding the domestic and international incremental market for "national goods" trendy products. Games have been suppressed previously, and although there have been some policy corrections later, the efforts were insufficient. This time, national-level documents clearly support promoting game consumption, increasing consumer demand for game growth recovery.

Expectation Difference 4: New productive forces such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and low-altitude are included in the scope of consumption support for the first time. The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative will promote the acceleration of "Artificial Intelligence + consumption"; driving new technologies and products such as autonomous driving, smart wearables, ultra-high-definition video, brain-machine interfaces, robots, and additive manufacturing to open up new high-growth consumption tracks; accelerating the improvement of the low-altitude economic regulatory system, and orderly developing low-altitude tourism, aviation sports, and consumer-grade drones.

Many people often understand consumption as traditional food, department stores, home appliances, etc. This time, the central-level major document echoes the government work report, clearly supporting new productive force directions for the first time, such as robots and brain-machine interfaces, which is considered quite beyond expectations, with the low-altitude section having the most extensive expression.

【Data Monitoring】

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (March) is 109,869, with a net open position of 33,923. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is March 28, 2024.

From the distribution of bullish and bearish positions in the Hang Seng Index at the 23,960 point level, the upper bearish certificate concentration area is close to the central axis, indicating that the Hang Seng Index has sustained bullish momentum. This week is the world central bank meeting week, and the Federal Reserve's dot plot may indicate that decision-makers believe there is only one opportunity for a rate cut this year, making the Hang Seng Index bullish this week.

【Editor's Remarks】

The market's "high-low cut" has become quite evident, driving a rebound in the consumption sector, and the market trend is expected to expand from technology themes to a broad rally.

Although the Hong Kong stock consumption sector has already experienced a wave of increases, both indices are still at relatively low levels. As of March 5, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is approximately 22 times, at the historical percentile of 18.01% over the past five years; the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Hang Seng Consumption Index is approximately 18 times, at the historical percentile of 14.94% over the past five years. Opportunities are abundant, and investors should not miss out [Disclaimer] This VIP information product is for communication and discussion purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. For more quality information and data products, please log in to the [Zhitong Finance] APP for inquiries.