Breakfast | NVIDIA GTC conference is about to be held; Wall Street's most accurate analyst: US stocks are in a correction, not a bear market

Last Friday's Review

The danger of a U.S. government shutdown has been lifted, and the S&P 500 recorded its strongest rebound since the presidential election, with the S&P and Nasdaq both rising over 2%, although they still fell for four consecutive weeks. The Dow Jones dropped over 3% for the week, marking its largest weekly decline in two years. NVIDIA rose over 5%, gaining 8% for the week, marking its first weekly increase in four weeks. Tesla rebounded nearly 4%, but still fell nearly 5% for the week. Apple dropped over 10% for the week. Quantum computing stock D-Wave surged nearly 47%, while QUBT rose 29%.

The China concept index rose nearly 3%, with Pinduoduo and Nio both up over 3%. Germany's historic debt plan is about to pass, with defense stock Rheinmetall rising over 6%. The pan-European stock index rebounded over 1%, but still recorded its largest weekly decline of the year.

After the release of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a daily high; the dollar index briefly erased its losses. The offshore yuan rebounded over 200 points during the day, approaching 7.23. Bitcoin briefly rose over $5,000, breaking through the $85,000 mark.

Crude oil rebounded, reversing the weekly decline, with U.S. oil recording its first weekly increase in nearly two months. Gold futures closed above $3,000 for the first time, gaining 3% for the week.

During the Asian session, AH shares surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,400 points, reaching a new high for the year. The consumer sector exploded across the board, with large financials, gold, and fertility leading the gains.

NVIDIA's GTC Conference Approaching, Expected to Reverse Tech Stock Slump?

From March 17 to 21 local time, NVIDIA will hold its annual GTC conference in San Jose, California. As a top summit in the global AI field, it is expected to attract 25,000 on-site participants, with another 300,000 attending online. This conference serves as a platform for NVIDIA to showcase its technological innovations, significantly impacting the global tech industry landscape and capital markets.

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers stated before the conference that NVIDIA's stock price has significantly dropped in recent weeks, presenting a "buying opportunity," and gave the stock an "overweight" rating with a target price of $185. He pointed out that over the past five years, NVIDIA's stock performance during the week of the GTC conference and the two weeks following has outperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 7 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, with average returns of 6.4% and 4.5%. Currently, the stock price is about 35% lower than the average price-to-earnings ratio over the past three years.

Tesla to Launch "Low-Priced" Model Y Next Year, Costs Down 20% to Defend Market Share in China

In response to weak sales data, declining product competitiveness, and shrinking market share in China, Tesla is "self-rescuing." Reports indicate that the low-priced "Model Y," codenamed "E41," will adopt a "depop" development approach, which aims to simplify configurations for a rapid product launch while maintaining core functionalities.

AI Revolution Continues, Hon Hai: Expects Q1 AI Business Revenue to Rise Over 100% Year-on-Year

Hon Hai's Q4 net profit fell short of expectations, but it anticipates that AI business revenue will rise over 100% year-on-year in Q1. Due to weak iPhone sales, Hon Hai's Q4 net profit declined by 13%. However, the AI server business is experiencing strong growth, with a projected 150% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024. The company stated that 2025 will be its "AI Year," expecting 40% of Q1 revenue to come from AI servers

Li Auto's Revenue Increases but Profit Declines, Net Profit Drops 38.6%

Li Auto's revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, with Q4 revenue increasing by 6.1% year-on-year to a record high, and fourth-quarter delivery volume growing by 20.4% year-on-year. However, due to the impact of the "price war," net profit saw a year-on-year decline. Last Friday, the stock price opened high but closed lower.

Witness History! Over HKD 370 billion in Southbound "Shopping" by Institutions: Hong Kong Stocks Can Still Rise

Data shows that as of March 14, the net buying amount of southbound funds has exceeded HKD 370 billion this year, equivalent to over HKD 200 million in real money flowing south every hour. The proportion of southbound fund transactions has risen to 58% this year. A public fund manager stated that Hong Kong stocks are gradually transforming from an offshore market to a semi-offshore market, and the pricing power system for Chinese assets is undergoing a reshaping.

EU Central Bank President Warns: Trade War Will Devastate the Global Economy

Lagarde stated that if a trade conflict truly occurs, trade activities will be severely suppressed, significantly impacting global economic growth and prices, especially in the United States. Some countries will be more severely affected than others, and inflation in certain countries will rise more, but ultimately everyone will be a loser.

Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: U.S. Stocks Are in Adjustment, Not a Bear Market

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett emphasized the importance of monitoring six key bottoming signals to determine whether the adjustment has ended, which are: Bank of America FMS cash levels, global growth expectations and stock allocations, BofA bull-bear indicator, global stock fund redemptions, BofA global stock breadth index, and U.S. high-yield bond spreads.

In the face of the adjustment, he does not recommend shorting U.S. stocks but instead recommends buying when the S&P 500 drops to 5,300 points. He also reiterated the "BIG" strategy, which involves holding bonds, international stocks, and gold for the long term until 2025.

Fertility Subsidies Being Implemented in Various Regions

Hohhot has announced a subsidy of 100,000 for having three children, and Shenzhen has also expressed its stance, with various regions launching "real money" incentives to promote childbirth. Hohhot announced a subsidy of 10,000 for the first child, 50,000 for the second child, and 100,000 for three or more children. Additionally, families with three or more children can freely choose schools citywide; Shenzhen stated it will actively and steadily implement childcare subsidies. In addition to childcare subsidies, various forms of incentive policies such as marriage subsidies, reproductive services, housing support, and medical insurance have been implemented in some areas.

Fertility concept stocks surged last Friday.

New Domestic Measures to Boost Consumption

The General Office of the Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," covering eight major actions including increasing income for urban and rural residents and ensuring consumption capacity, with a total of thirty specific measures. The plan proposes promoting reasonable growth in wage income, broadening channels for property income, and stabilizing the stock market through multiple measures; increasing support for fertility and childcare, and researching the establishment of a childcare subsidy system; deepening the integration of online and offline, business, travel, culture, and sports consumption; promoting ice and snow consumption, developing inbound consumption; increasing support for replacing old consumer goods with new ones, timely reducing housing provident fund loan interest rates, and extending the automotive consumption chain; accelerating the development and application promotion of new technologies and products such as autonomous driving, smart wearables, and ultra-high-definition videoThe State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Monday, March 17, to introduce measures to boost consumption.

CCTV "315" List, Two Hong Kong Stocks Named

Renovated sanitary napkins and disposable underwear scandals, two Hong Kong stock companies... The "315" list has gone viral. After CCTV's "3·15" gala exposed issues with substandard materials in sanitary napkins and diapers, several brands such as Sofy, Free Point, and Mankiss have suspended their live broadcasts, and related products have been removed from shelves. At the same time, due to involvement in mobile phone lottery scams and manipulating harassment calls, DuiBa Group and Weimeng Group have been named among the two Hong Kong-listed companies. Langsha Co., Ltd.: Received a regulatory work letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and is actively cooperating with local market regulatory authorities to verify related matters