U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Analyst: S&P 500 Pullback Not a Bear Market

1. On March 14 (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures rose together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.65%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.98%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 1.27%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 2.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.69%, the French CAC40 index rose by 1.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.40%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.71%, priced at $67.02 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.69%, priced at $70.36 per barrel.

Market News

S&P 500 index falls into correction territory, analysts say: Don't be afraid! It's not a bear market yet. The S&P 500 index experienced its first correction since October 2023, closing down 10% from its recent high. On Thursday, the index fell by 77.78 points, a decrease of 1.39%, closing at 5521.52 points. Since reaching a historical closing high of 6144.15 points on February 19, the index has accumulated a decline of over 10%. The Nasdaq Composite Index has long entered the adjustment range, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline is also approaching correction standards. The speed of this adjustment is astonishing. According to Dow Jones market data, the S&P 500 index was still at a historical high just 16 trading days ago. However, some asset management companies believe that the current sell-off is not enough to indicate that the market has entered a bear market. The rapid pace of this adjustment is different from the slow but continuous downward trend seen in bear markets and is more in line with typical market correction characteristics.

Democrats abandon efforts to block Republican bill, government shutdown threat eliminated. Senate Democrats have abandoned efforts to block Republicans from passing a temporary funding bill to finance the government, following a tough internal struggle on how to better resist Trump's rapid downsizing of federal agencies. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, stated that he would vote to advance the bill on Friday morning, saying the risks of a government shutdown are simply too great. Sources said that earlier, Schumer indicated at a closed-door luncheon that there would be enough Democrats to help Republicans cross the critical threshold of 60 votes needed to pass the bill in the Senate.

Trump's policies scare US stocks, fintech stocks become "disaster zone." As concerns about the US economic outlook continue to grow, the US stock market is facing immense pressure, with fintech companies, closely related to consumer spending and small businesses, being particularly hard hit The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 2.1% on Thursday, on track for its worst weekly performance since September last year, with Shift4 Payments (FOUR.US), Toast (TOST.US), and BILL Holdings (BILL.US) experiencing even larger declines of 6.7%, 6.2%, and 4% respectively. The erratic tariff policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have led to market turmoil. On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that the Trump administration is more focused on the long-term health of the economy, adding that he "is not worried about a bit of volatility that occurs over three weeks."

Gold prices hit a historic high, Asian gold mining stocks soar. Asian gold mining companies saw significant stock price increases on Friday as gold prices reached a historic high, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid heightened market volatility. Spot gold prices surpassed $3,000 per ounce, exceeding the historic high set on Thursday. As trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries escalate, investors flocked to this precious metal, which has severely impacted Wall Street stocks. Weak inflation data released this week has bolstered market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has also boosted gold prices. Hong Kong-listed mining companies Shandong Gold (01787) and Zijin Mining (02899) emerged as some of the biggest beneficiaries. Meanwhile, in China, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining saw its stock rise by 5.6%, while Zhongjin Gold's stock increased by over 2%.

Seeking fortune in risk? South Korean bulls also heavily bet on U.S. leveraged ETFs. South Korean investors have significantly purchased U.S. leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this week, continuing to invest in a popular trade amid ongoing market volatility. According to Bloomberg's calculations based on data from South Korean custodians, from March 10 to 13, South Korean retail investors net invested $519 million into three U.S. leveraged ETFs. They also directly invested $371 million in Tesla (TSLA.US) stock, which has seen significant price fluctuations this week. These bets again indicate that despite concerns over President Donald Trump's disruptive trade policies affecting market sentiment, the risk-loving investor group in South Korea remains confident in the U.S. stock market.

Individual Stock News

Li Auto (LI.US) expects a 16.6% year-on-year revenue growth to 144.5 billion yuan in 2024. Li Auto's vehicle sales revenue for the fourth quarter was 42.643 billion yuan (same unit below), an increase of 5.6% year-on-year; total revenue was 44.274 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year; net profit was 3.533 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.6% year-on-year. For the full year of 2024, the group achieved vehicle sales revenue of 138.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year; total revenue of 144.5 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6% year-on-year; net profit of 8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9% year-on-year. In 2024, total vehicle deliveries reached 500,500 units, a 33.1% increase from 376,000 units in 2023. The company delivered 29,927 and 26,263 vehicles in January and February 2025, respectively. As of February 28, 2025, the company has 500 retail centers in 150 cities nationwide and operates 488 after-sales service centers and authorized body repair centers in 224 cities Tuniu (TOUR.US) 2024 Annual Report: Net Revenue of 513.6 Million Yuan, a Year-on-Year Increase of 16.4%. Tuniu Travel Network today announced its unaudited fourth quarter and annual performance report for the fiscal year 2024 ending December 31, 2024. The net revenue for 2024 was 513.6 million yuan, an increase of 16.4% compared to 2023. In 2024, the revenue from packaged travel products was 407.5 million yuan, a 22.2% increase from 2023. The gross profit was 358 million yuan, up 21.9% from 2023. The operating profit was 63.3 million yuan, compared to an operating loss of 101.9 million yuan in 2023. Under non-GAAP, the operating profit for 2024 was 66.9 million yuan, while the operating profit for 2023 was 50 million yuan. The net profit was 83.7 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 101.1 million yuan in 2023.

RLX Technology (RLX.US) Q4 Net Revenue Increased by 56.29% Year-on-Year, Net Profit of 127.4 Million Yuan. RLX Technology's Q4 net revenue was 813.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%; net profit was 127.4 million yuan, compared to 216 million yuan in the same period last year; basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 0.100 and 0.094 yuan, compared to 0.166 and 0.161 yuan in the same period last year. Non-GAAP net profit was 251.5 million yuan, compared to 432.6 million yuan in the same period last year, with basic and diluted earnings per ADS of 0.201 and 0.190 yuan. The total net revenue for the year was 2.7486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.26%, with a net profit of 564.3 million yuan, compared to 541 million yuan in the same period last year. Basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 0.448 and 0.428 yuan, compared to 0.407 and 0.399 yuan in the same period last year.

Goodbye Language Barriers! Apple (AAPL.US) to Launch AirPods Real-Time Translation Feature, Possibly with iOS 19. Apple is planning to introduce a new AirPods feature that allows real-time translation of face-to-face conversations into another language. According to insiders, this feature will be part of a software update for AirPods to be released later this year and will be tied to Apple's mobile operating system iOS 19. Competing headphones, such as Google Pixel Buds, have had this feature for years. Since 2020, Apple has offered its own translation app on the iPhone. Reports indicate that the AirPods real-time translation works as follows: if an English speaker hears someone speaking in Spanish, the iPhone will translate the speech into English and relay it to the user's AirPods. At the same time, the English speaker's words will be translated into Spanish and played by the iPhone.

Tesla (TSLA.US) Issues Warning: Concerns Over Retaliatory Measures from Trade War and Soaring Costs. As President Donald Trump escalates the trade war by imposing tariffs on numerous imported goods, Tesla (TSLA.US) has expressed concerns over potential retaliatory measures from other countries. The electric vehicle manufacturer warned the U.S. government this week that any such actions could raise its manufacturing costs and weaken the competitiveness of its vehicles in international markets Tesla pointed out in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on March 11: "When other countries respond to U.S. trade actions, U.S. exporters will inevitably be disproportionately affected. Past U.S. trade actions have triggered immediate responses from targeted countries, including tariffs on electric vehicles imported into those countries."

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value.

The next day, Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs for the week ending March 14.

The next day, Beijing time 03:30: CFTC releases weekly positions report