The risks in the US stock market are beginning to spread to the bond market

The once strong corporate bonds have now joined the ranks of global market turmoil.

As of Wednesday's data, the risk premium required by investors holding junk bonds hovers at its highest level since September. One of the largest junk bond ETFs in the U.S. has fallen 1.4% over the past six trading days, marking the largest decline this year. The downward trend of junk bond ETFs, as risk assets, reflects that bond investors are also beginning to worry about an economic recession.

Prior to this, U.S. stocks had been declining for nearly a month, with the S&P 500 index down 10% since late February, marking the first such decline in nearly two years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has dropped over 13% in just one month.

Experts on Wall Street are increasingly concerned about the risks of a market downturn. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, advises clients to remain bearish on the U.S. stock market, firmly believing that there is still room for further declines.

People are finally realizing that the 'Trump put' no longer exists, and the economy cannot effectively cope with so many shocks—DOGE, layoffs, tariffs. And these ultimately affect the bond market.

Corporate Bond Market Sounds Alarm, Recession Risk Rises

For a long time, corporate bond investors have been seen as the "smart money" capable of predicting economic shifts. Reports indicate that the cost of protecting high-grade bonds from default has surged to its highest level since August of last year. The hedging volume of high-yield ETFs has skyrocketed, with at least six companies postponing their bond sale plans.

This shift indicates that investor concerns about the escalation of the trade war have spread from the stock market to the corporate bond market. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JP Morgan Asset Management, stated:

If bond spreads continue to widen significantly from now on, I think it indicates that the market is beginning to anticipate the possibility of an economic recession.

She has recently reduced her risk exposure and added:

I believe corporate bonds will not be able to escape the impact of weak economic data.

The direct trigger for this round of market turbulence is quite clear: U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages from the EU. Subsequently, Trump insisted that he would not repeal the steel and aluminum tariffs that take effect this week, triggering a new round of severe volatility across asset classes.

Against this backdrop, market risk sentiment has sharply deteriorated:

• The Wall Street Fear Index VIX has hovered near its highest level since August 5 of last year this week;
• Bitcoin has fallen about 25% from its January peak;
• Soaring tech stocks have faced severe selling pressure.

The only positive signal is the strong performance of long-term bonds, with ETFs tracking long-term bonds rising nearly 1% on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped more than 50 basis points since its peak in January, indicating investors' pursuit of safe-haven assets It should be noted that the corporate bond market is far from collapsing, and the risk premium or spread is still relatively narrow by the standards of the past decade.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk