Trump's tariffs are fluctuating, the decline of the US stock market is easing, Tesla rebounded nearly 4%, Chinese concept stocks surged, NIO rose 17%, and the Canadian dollar experienced a roller coaster ride

Canada's tariff policy has reversed multiple times, leading to a "roller coaster" market. After a sharp decline on Tuesday, the S&P 500 initially rose in early trading, but then Trump announced that tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum would be doubled to 50%. This move was a response to Ontario Premier Ford's imposition of a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. The three major U.S. stock indices turned downward, the Canadian dollar plummeted, and U.S. steel and aluminum stocks rose. Shortly after, reports emerged that the U.S. had not yet signed the documents for the additional tariffs on Canada, causing the Canadian dollar and the S&P 500 index to narrow their losses, but the overall downward trend in U.S. stocks remained unchanged. By midday, U.S. stocks hit new daily lows, with the S&P falling over 1.5%.

After lunch, the market changed again as Ukraine expressed willingness to accept a 30-day temporary ceasefire proposal from the U.S., leading U.S. stocks to rebound from their daily lows. Subsequently, Premier Ford announced that after communicating with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, he decided to temporarily cancel the 25% surcharge on the U.S. Trump’s senior trade advisor stated that Trump would not raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products to 50%, but the originally planned 25% tariff would still take effect. After the U.S.-Ukraine talks, a joint statement was issued, indicating that a U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement would be reached as soon as possible. Following news of ceasefire negotiations and the suspension of tariffs, large tech stocks saw a surge in bargain hunters, pushing U.S. stocks to new daily highs, with the S&P rising nearly 0.4%, the Canadian dollar turning positive, and the decline in the Canadian stock market narrowing, while oil prices saw a reduced increase due to the ceasefire agreement.

However, in the closing hours, Trump responded to reporters' questions, and U.S. stocks weakened again. On inflation, Trump stated that egg and gasoline prices had fallen. Regarding tariffs, Trump may abandon the plan to impose double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. On geopolitical matters, Trump expressed hope for a ceasefire agreement in his upcoming talks with Russian President Putin. Economically, Trump claimed that the U.S. economy would not enter a recession and that the economy would be "remarkable." He stated that selling off had nothing to do with him, that the market would have ups and downs, and that they would have the greatest market ever. At the close of trading, major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones experiencing the largest decline, while small-cap stocks performed well, rising 0.22%, and the S&P and Nasdaq failed to maintain their gains.

Trump made remarks on the economy and policy, stating that inflation had eased, with falling egg and gasoline prices, suggesting a possible abandonment of double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. On geopolitical matters, he anticipated talks with Putin this week, hoping to reach a ceasefire agreement. He insisted that the U.S. economy would not enter a recession and stated that the market would be "remarkable" in the future. U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones experiencing the largest decline, while small-cap stocks showed strong performance, rising 0.22%, and the S&P and Nasdaq retraced their gains.

Additionally, Trump threatened to "permanently close" the Canadian automotive industry, leading to a widespread decline in European automotive stocks. Trump's tariff policy has shaken corporate and consumer confidence, with optimism among small businesses dropping to a four-month low in February, as the NFIB optimism index fell to 100.7, with seven sub-indices weakening. Business owners are uneasy about tariffs, and uncertainty indicators are close to record highs, with expansion intentions and capital expenditure plans both dropping to multi-year lows. Citigroup has downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," citing "a pause in American exceptionalism."

Corporate performance warnings have also intensified market concerns about the economic situation. Delta Air Lines lowered its first-quarter performance guidance on Tuesday due to weak demand in the U.S., causing its stock price to plummet by 7.3%. Other travel-related stocks also fell, with Disney and Airbnb both down about 5%. The S&P 500 index has pulled back 10% from its historical high:

All three major U.S. stock indices fell.

• The S&P 500 index closed down 0.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.14%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.18%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.28%.
• The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, closed up 0.18%.
• The Russell 2000 small-cap index closed up 0.23%. The volatility index VIX closed down 3.45%, at 26.90.

U.S. sector ETFs broadly declined.

• The global airline industry ETF closed down 1.69%, the biotechnology index ETF fell 1.36%, the consumer discretionary ETF dropped 0.98%, while the internet stock index ETF closed up 0.5%.

Most of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks rose:

• The Magnificent 7 index was roughly flat, while the "Trump Tariff Losers" index fell by 1.9%.
• Tesla closed up 3.79%, Nvidia rose 1.66%, Meta increased by 1.29%, Amazon was up 1.05%, Microsoft rose 0.08%, Alphabet A closed down 1.1%, and Apple fell 2.92%.

Chip stocks had mixed performance.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.70%. The Nvidia double long ETF rose 2.95%.
• NXP Semiconductors rose 13.65%, Broadcom increased by 3.06%, Micron Technology rose 2.26%, and Qualcomm fell 1.21%.

Most AI concept stocks rose.

• Advanced Micro Devices rose 10.65%, Applovin increased by 8.27%, and Jet.AI rose 6.4%.

Most Chinese concept stocks rose.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 2.83%. The FTSE A50 futures index closed up 0.07%, at 13273.000 points.
• Among ETFs, the Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (YINN) closed up 3.91%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 2.36%, and the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) increased by 2.23%
• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, ZEEKR rose 18.47%, NIO rose 17.04%, XPeng rose 14.77%, Kingsoft Cloud rose 10.98%, and Li Auto rose 7%. Hesai rose 50.41%.

Other key stocks:

• Delta Air Lines lowered its first-quarter earnings guidance, falling 7.25%. Among airline stocks, American Airlines fell 8.32%, while Southwest Airlines rose 8.3%.

• Kohl's fell 24.07%, with the company's fourth-quarter earnings per share falling short of expectations.

Trump threatened to "permanently close" the Canadian auto industry, leading to a sharp decline in European stocks, with the automotive sector falling 2.13%. Stellantis shares fell 5%, as the company has multiple production plants in Canada that will be directly affected:

European Stocks:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 1.70%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 1.43%.
• The German stock index closed down 1.29%. The French stock index closed down 1.31%. The Italian stock index closed down 1.38%. The UK stock index closed down 1.21%. The Spanish stock index fell 1.57%.

Sector Performance:

• In other sectors of the European market, the STOXX 600 Travel and Leisure index fell 3%, and the parent company of British Airways, International Airlines, fell 6.1%. The company announced on Monday the establishment of a corporate investment division, which will invest up to €200 million (USD 218 million) in "high-potential companies shaping the future of the aviation industry."
• Healthcare stocks also suffered. After the latest trial results of Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug were released, its stock price fell 3.8%.

The U.S. stock market saw a surge in bargain-hunting trades, with U.S. Treasury yields rising across the board. Long-term bonds erased yesterday's gains, while short-term bond yields remained significantly lower this week, leading to a steepening yield curve. The yield spread between the UK 2-year and 10-year government bonds reached 50 basis points, the highest since 2022:

U.S. Treasuries:

• The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 6.48 basis points to 4.2779%, continuing to fluctuate upward throughout the day.
• The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury rose by 4.95 basis points to 3.9327%.

European Bonds:

• At the close of the European market, the yield on the 10-year German government bond rose by 6.4 basis points to 2.897%. The yield on the 2-year German bond fell by 1.7 basis points.
• The yield on the 10-year UK government bond rose by 2.9 basis points. The yield on the 2-year UK bond fell by 2.2 basis points. The yield on the 10-year French government bond rose by 4.4 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond rose by 4.9 basis points
• Due to limited defense spending and interest rate cut space, BlackRock quickly lowered its allocation recommendation for Eurozone bonds.

Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, and the USD/CAD hits a one-week high. At the same time, the euro rises about 0.8% due to positive prospects for Germany's defense spending agreement, reaching a four-month high, while the pound rises over 0.5%. The yen falls over 0.3%, briefly breaking below 148:

US Dollar:

• At the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index fell over 0.6%, refreshing the daily low to 103.221 points, remaining in a downward trend for most of the day.
• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell about 0.5%, refreshing the daily low to 1264.63 points, remaining in a downward trend throughout the day.

Non-USD Currencies:

• The euro rose 0.78% against the dollar, reported at 1.0919. The pound rose 0.56% against the dollar. The dollar rose 0.20% against the Swiss franc. The Australian dollar rose 0.32% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.30% against the dollar, and the dollar fell 0.04% against the Canadian dollar.

Yen: At the New York close, the dollar rose 0.34% against the yen, reported at 147.77 yen, with an intraday trading range of 146.54-148.11 yen.

Cryptocurrency:

• At the New York close, the largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose 5.25%, reported at $83,170.00, fluctuating upward throughout the day.
• The second-largest Ethereum rose 3.90% at the close, reported at $1,946.00.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintains its forecast for Brent crude oil prices this year and raises next year's forecast by $2. Market risk sentiment has slightly improved, and oil prices ultimately rose slightly:

U.S. Oil: WTI April crude oil futures closed up $0.22, an increase of over 0.33%, reported at $66.25 per barrel.

Brent Oil: Brent May crude oil futures closed up $0.28, an increase of over 0.40%, reported at $69.56 per barrel.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. April natural gas futures closed down over 0.84%, reported at $4.4530 per million British thermal units.
• TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 5.90%, reported at €43.550 per megawatt-hour.
• ICE UK natural gas futures rose 6.06%, reported at 107.020 pence per kilocalorie

The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about economic growth support safe-haven gold rising, with spot gold up over 0.9%, briefly surpassing $2920:

Gold:

• COMEX gold futures rose 0.82%, reported at $2923.30 per ounce. Spot gold closed up 0.93%, reported at $2915.67 per ounce, continuing to oscillate upward throughout the day.

Silver:

• COMEX silver futures rose 2.61%, reported at $33.380 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 2.62%, reported at $32.9502 per ounce.

Most London industrial metals rose:

• London copper closed up $134. COMEX copper futures rose 2.71%, reported at $4.7930 per pound.
• London aluminum closed up $9. London zinc closed up $56. London lead closed up $4. London nickel closed down $58. London tin closed up $498. London cobalt closed up $1460.
• Jeff Currie, an analyst at Carlyle Group, warned that due to the implementation of tariff policies, countries must pay higher costs to ensure stable supplies of their metals (such as copper), resulting in a new "safety premium" added to metal prices