Federal Reserve: Short-term inflation expectations in the U.S. rose in February, while medium- and long-term inflation expectations remained stable, with increasing concerns about financial conditions

On Monday, according to the latest monthly survey report released by the New York Federal Reserve, American consumers expect a slight rise in inflation in the short term, while maintaining stable expectations for medium- to long-term inflation. However, consumer pessimism has intensified, and they feel increasingly negative about their personal financial situation.

Specifically, in February, consumers' median expectation for the inflation rate over the next year rose slightly from 3% in January to 3.1% in February, while expectations for inflation over the next three and five years remained at 3%.

Previously, another important inflation expectation survey indicator—the University of Michigan Consumer Survey—showed that the final value of the five-year inflation expectation in February soared to 3.5%, the highest since 1995, while the final value of the one-year inflation expectation was 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. Currently, there is a significant gap between the inflation expectations of the New York Federal Reserve survey and the University of Michigan survey.

In light of the significant differences between the two surveys, even the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" has spoken out:

The University of Michigan survey shows a sharp rise in inflation expectations? It was not recorded in the New York Federal Reserve's February consumer survey.

The stability of medium- to long-term inflation expectations may be a positive signal for Federal Reserve policymakers who closely monitor this indicator. Inflation expectations are crucial because policies from the Trump administration, such as cracking down on immigration and imposing tariffs on major trading partners, could lead to a slowdown in economic growth and exacerbate inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve officials have indicated that if consumers' long-term inflation expectations remain stable, they may choose to overlook price increases caused by tariffs.

In terms of specific categories, Americans expect further increases in the prices of gasoline, food, medical care, and rent:

Expectations for gasoline price increases rose by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7%, the highest level since June of last year.

Expectations for food price increases rose by 0.5 percentage points to 5.1%, the highest level since May of last year.

Expectations for medical costs increased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.2%.

Expectations for college tuition increases rose by 1 percentage point to 6.9%.

Expectations for rent increases rose by 0.7 percentage points to 6.7%.

The median expectation for home price growth increased by 0.1% to 3.3%. This reading has fluctuated narrowly between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023

Poor Financial and Employment Outlook

The latest survey shows that consumers have become more cautious and uneasy about the U.S. economy.

A significant feature of this survey is the rise in consumers' financial pessimism. 27.4% of respondents believe that their financial situation will worsen in the coming year, reaching the highest level in 15 months. Americans' expectation of being unable to make minimum debt payments in the next three months has risen to 14.6%, the highest since April 2020.

The New York Fed stated:

In February, households expressed stronger pessimism about their financial situation in the coming year, with expectations for unemployment, debt defaults, and credit access all significantly worsening.

According to this survey, several indicators related to the labor market have also deteriorated:

• Resignation willingness: The average probability of resigning in the next year has dropped to 17.6%, the lowest in seven months, reflecting a decline in confidence in the job market.
• Reemployment prospects: People expect the probability of finding a job within three months after unemployment to further decline, below the average level of the past 12 months.
• Unemployment rate expectations: The probability that respondents believe the unemployment rate will rise in the coming year has climbed to 39.4%, the highest since September 2023, with this expectation increasing across all age, education, and income groups.

In addition to the job market, consumer confidence in the stock market has also weakened, with the probability of the U.S. stock market rising in the coming year dropping to the lowest level since December 2023