Novo Nordisk's U.S. stock pre-market fell nearly 6%, as the experimental data for the company's next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema fell short of expectations

Today, Novo Nordisk announced the results of its pivotal weight loss drug CagriSema's REDEFINE 2 clinical trial. Although the data shows that the drug has "excellent" weight loss effects for obese patients, with an average weight loss of 15.7%, it still falls short of market expectations of nearly 20%, causing the company's stock price to drop by as much as 6.5%.

As a giant in the weight loss drug market, Novo Nordisk is facing fierce competition from other pharmaceutical companies, and market expectations for its new drug are rising. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Shah stated:

"The latest results appear to be roughly comparable to Eli Lilly's sensational Zepbound, which raises concerns among investors that the new drug may not be sufficiently differentiated."

CagriSema Clinical Trial Shows Significant Weight Loss Effects, Average Weight Loss of 15.7%

According to data released by Novo Nordisk, REDEFINE 2 is a 68-week clinical trial conducted on adult patients who are overweight or obese and have type 2 diabetes. A total of 1,206 patients were recruited, with an average baseline weight of 102 kg.

The trial results showed that after 68 weeks of treatment, patients receiving weekly subcutaneous injections of CagriSema experienced an average weight loss of 15.7%, while the placebo group only lost 3.1%. Additionally, 89.7% of patients in the CagriSema group lost more than 5% of their weight, compared to only 30.3% in the placebo group. These data were assessed under the condition that all patients adhered to the treatment. Novo Nordisk plans to submit its first regulatory approval application for CagriSema in the first quarter of 2026.

Martin Holst Lange, Executive Vice President of Development at Novo Nordisk, stated:

"The results of REDEFINE 2 confirm the outstanding efficacy of CagriSema in the overweight or obese population with type 2 diabetes. We look forward to submitting this second pivotal trial to regulatory authorities to help millions of patients in need of such treatment."

It is noteworthy that the trial employed a flexible dosing regimen, allowing patients to adjust their doses during the trial. After 68 weeks, 61.9% of patients receiving CagriSema treatment used the highest dose. In terms of safety, CagriSema demonstrated good safety and tolerability, with the most common adverse reactions being gastrointestinal symptoms, mostly mild to moderate, which tend to diminish over time.

Competition in the Obesity Drug Market Intensifies

Despite the impressive data from CagriSema, investor reaction to Novo Nordisk's stock has been lukewarm, clearly indicating that the results still fell short of market expectations.

Kepler Cheuvreux analyst David Evans stated:

"Investors had originally expected that number to be close to 20%, and this result further undermines the prospects for CagriSema and raises doubts about Novo Nordisk's future candidate drugs." It is worth noting that this is the second time CagriSema has "disappointed the market." An early study conducted at the end of last year regarding the drug left investors disappointed with its weight loss effects, resulting in the company's market value evaporating by nearly $100 billion. The trial showed that volunteers lost an average of 22.7% of their weight, below Novo Nordisk's expected 25%.

As investors begin to question the scale of the weight loss drug market and whether professional pharmaceutical companies are overvalued, Novo Nordisk's stock price has fallen more than 30% in the past six months.

Moreover, Novo Nordisk is facing increasingly fierce competition. According to media reports, several companies are currently developing similar weight loss drugs, and some companies are developing oral GLP-1 drugs that may pose a challenge to Novo Nordisk's current injectable products.

For example, biotechnology company Terns Pharmaceuticals is developing a potential once-daily oral GLP-1 drug, TERN-601, which led to a significant average weight loss of 5.5% over 28 days in a Phase 1 study (4.9% adjusted for placebo). The company also has another candidate drug, TERN-501, aimed at enhancing the efficacy of GLP-1 drugs. Wall Street analysts expect that the company has significant upside potential, possibly skyrocketing about 462% from current levels.