U.S. Stock Outlook | This Week's U.S. CPI and PPI Are Coming

1. As of March 10 (Monday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 1.11%, S&P 500 futures are down 1.28%, and Nasdaq futures are down 1.49%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.60%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.52%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 1.01%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.55%, priced at $67.41 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.51%, priced at $70.72 per barrel.

Market News

Starting March 9, the U.S. enters Daylight Saving Time, and U.S. stock trading hours are moved up by one hour. Starting from March 9, Beijing time, the U.S. will enter Daylight Saving Time. Therefore, from March 10, the U.S. stock market will open and close one hour earlier, with pre-market trading hours from 16:00 to 21:30 Beijing time; intraday trading hours from 21:30 to 04:00 the next day; and after-hours trading hours from 04:00 to 08:00.

This week, the U.S. CPI and PPI are set to be released, with inflation becoming a market focus under the shadow of tariffs. Last week, due to the lack of clarity in President Donald Trump's tariff plans and the potential impact of these plans on the overall economy, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines. In the coming week, key updates on inflation data are highly anticipated, including the latest readings of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), as investors seek clues on how tariffs may affect future price trends. Data related to inflation expectations and consumer confidence will also be released. In a relatively quiet week for corporate earnings reports, the earnings reports of Oracle (ORCL.US) and Adobe (ADBE.US) will be in the spotlight.

The U.S. is "one step away from economic recession"! Bank of America recommends buying long-term U.S. Treasuries and is optimistic about Chinese and European stocks. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett recently commented on the current economic situation in the U.S., stating that after five years of fiscal expansion, the U.S. economy is beginning to fall into a "government recession." He recommends that investors buy 30-year U.S. Treasuries and sell bonds from the UK, EU, and Japan. As the "American exceptionalism" trade cools down, the strategist is also optimistic about international stocks, particularly those from China and Europe. Hartnett pointed out several indicators suggesting economic downturn, including weak employment growth in government and quasi-government sectors, and an increase in U.S. household savings rates due to diminished confidence in fiscal reliefGovernment and quasi-government employment growth accounts for a large portion of the job growth in the United States in January 2025.

Trump speaks again: The U.S. economy is facing a "transitional period," downplaying recession risks. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. economy is facing "a transitional period" and is trying to downplay market concerns about an economic slowdown. Previously, his tariffs and federal government layoffs had caused market turmoil. When asked if the country would fall into a recession this year, Trump replied, "I am reluctant to predict such things. We are in a transitional period because what we are doing is significant." Although Trump declined to answer the question, his response is generally consistent with his remarks in Congress last week and recent comments from senior officials like U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset. The core argument of Trump's team is that the prospects for future tax cuts and tariff revenues will stimulate the economy.

From frenzy to caution! Trump's policies disrupt the bull market script, Wall Street urgently reassesses U.S. stock expectations. Over the past two years, stock market forecasters have continuously raised their expectations for the S&P 500 index to keep pace with the market's sustained rise. However, in less than three months into this year, sell-side strategists from companies including JP Morgan and RBC Capital Markets have begun to adopt a cautious stance on bullish expectations for 2025. The reason is that President Trump's tariff policies have raised concerns about an economic slowdown and led to turmoil in the U.S. stock market. Although no forecasters have explicitly downgraded their expectations yet, this shift in sentiment shows an increasing uncertainty among Wall Street forecasters, just weeks after the S&P 500 index hit a historic high. According to analysis from Piper Sandler & Co., historically, the consensus targets of strategists typically lag behind actual market trends by about 60 days.

Individual Stock News

Pre-market stock price plummets, Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) new generation weight loss drug underperforms for diabetes patients. Novo Nordisk announced on Monday that its experimental new generation drug CagriSema helped overweight or obese type 2 diabetes patients lose 15.7% of their weight after 68 weeks. As of the time of writing, Novo Nordisk's pre-market shares fell 6.40% to $81.56. Kepler Cheuvreux analyst David Evans stated that investors had originally expected this figure to be close to 20%. This is the second disappointing large study for CagriSema; last December, the drug's trial results in a non-diabetic population also showed weight loss effects below expectations.

Ford (F.US) injects $4.8 billion into German operations to revitalize the European market. American automaker Ford announced on Monday that it will inject up to €4.4 billion (approximately $4.76 billion) into its struggling German operations to revitalize its European business. Ford stated that its German subsidiary Ford-Werke will continue to advance its strategic transformation plan, focusing on cost reduction and improving competitiveness. Ford Vice Chairman John Lawler stated, "By restructuring the capital of our German operations, we are supporting the transformation of our European business and enhancing our competitiveness with a brand new product portfolio.""In order to establish a sustainable business in Europe, we also need to continue simplifying our governance structure, reducing costs, and improving efficiency."

TSMC (TSM.US) saw accelerated revenue growth in the first two months, highlighting strong demand for AI chips. Data released on Monday showed that TSMC's revenue in February was approximately NT$260.009 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 11.3% but a year-on-year increase of 43.1%. The total revenue for the first two months was NT$553.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%. In contrast, the growth rate for the entire year of 2024 is projected to be 34%, with analysts expecting an average growth rate of around 41% for this quarter. As the manufacturer of most AI chips globally, TSMC's sales serve as a barometer for the industry. The accelerated growth of TSMC seems to indicate that the market demand for chips used in AI development is resilient. Wall Street and Silicon Valley are currently debating the sustainability of an AI boom that has made NVIDIA (NVDA.US) the world's most valuable company, especially after China's DeepSeek appears to challenge the view of large-scale investments in computing power.

ServiceNow (NOW.US) is close to finalizing a deal to acquire AI assistant manufacturer Moveworks. According to insiders, ServiceNow is nearing a deal to acquire the AI company Moveworks, which would be its largest acquisition to date. Insiders stated that the software company is finalizing the acquisition of Moveworks, headquartered in Mountain View, California, and the announcement could come as early as the next few days. They indicated that the valuation for Moveworks in this acquisition could be close to $3 billion. Insiders also mentioned that despite significant progress in negotiations, there is still a possibility of delays or failure. A representative for ServiceNow declined to comment, and Moveworks' spokesperson could not be reached for immediate comment.

A U.S. district judge ruled that Boeing (BA.US) must face a shareholder class action lawsuit. Last Friday, a U.S. federal judge ruled that Boeing must face a shareholder class action lawsuit that accuses the company of exaggerating its commitment to manufacturing safe airplanes and deceiving investors. It is reported that U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, allowed shareholders led by the Rhode Island treasurer to sue Boeing as a group for damages. These shareholders held Boeing stock between January 7, 2021, and January 8, 2024. On January 5, 2024, an incident occurred involving an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, where an embedded emergency door fell off the side of the cabin. This incident led the Federal Aviation Administration to restrict the production of Boeing's best-selling aircraft and review the company's safety measures.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 23:00 Beijing time: U.S. February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (%).

The next day at 02:00 Beijing time: U.S. President Trump meets with American tech leaders, including CEOs from HP, Intel, IBM, and QualcommThe next day at 03:00 Beijing time: U.S. President Trump signed an executive order.

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: Oracle (ORCL.US), Yalla Technology (YALA.US)

Tuesday pre-market: 36Kr (KRKR.US), Kohl's (KSS.US)