Macroeconomic pressure on the micro! Goldman Sachs: For U.S. tech stocks, the "recession storm" is more important than "earnings reports."

In the past two weeks, U.S. tech stocks have experienced volatile corrections. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs stated that macro fundamentals have become more influential.

The Nasdaq 100 Index has fallen more than 3% for two consecutive weeks, marking its worst performance since September 2022, and has declined about 4% year-to-date. Additionally, the performance of hedge fund VIP long positions in tech stocks has lagged the Nasdaq 100 Index by approximately 460 basis points, marking the worst five-day performance in nearly five years.

On March 10, Peter Callahan, an expert from Goldman Sachs' tech stock division, stated that for current U.S. tech stocks, whether the U.S. economy is in recession is more important than the performance of tech companies' earnings reports. In the coming weeks, U.S. macro data and changes in the Trump administration's policies will largely shape market sentiment. Goldman Sachs predicts:

If the data is weak/policy visibility is low (meaning the market finds it difficult to predict or timely understand the direction of the Trump administration's policies): it may affect earnings expectations for the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year;

If the data is stable/policy uncertainty decreases: it may drive a market recovery in the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year.

Although U.S. tech stocks have seen sharp corrections in the past two weeks, Goldman Sachs believes that there is still a bull market logic for U.S. tech stocks (TMT):

First, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to about 25-26 times, which is roughly in line with the average level of the past five years, making valuations more attractive.

Second, the AI sector continues to advance, and the policy uncertainty of the Trump administration may ease. The second half of this year will also see several important product cycles, such as iPhone, PC, public cloud expansion, improvements in automotive/industrial trends, stabilization of software spending, and growth in AI applications and usage, all of which will benefit U.S. tech stocks.

The U.S. stock market is not in a complete collapse, but rather a valuation adjustment of leading tech stocks

Goldman Sachs stated that despite the economic pain in the U.S. stock market, there are currently no signs of a widespread change in views or trading strategies among market participants—the overall sentiment in the U.S. stock market remains "gritting teeth to get through," rather than a complete shift to a "2022-style sell-off."

The reason for this, according to Goldman Sachs, is that the interest rate environment remains stable, the revenue and profit expectations brought by generative AI remain strong, corporate fundamentals are still robust, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may provide policy support, factors that did not exist in 2022.

It is important to note that Goldman Sachs warns that the current decline in U.S. tech stocks is primarily concentrated in large leading tech companies. In fact, about 60% of the components of the Nasdaq 100 Index have performed flat or risen this year, indicating that the U.S. stock market is not in a complete collapse, but rather a valuation adjustment of leading tech stocks.