Overnight U.S. Stocks | The three major indices fell this week, with the S&P 500 recording its largest weekly decline since September last year

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Friday, the three major indices closed higher, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stating that he would wait for a "clearer" understanding of Trump's policies before deciding on the next interest rate action.

【U.S. Stocks】 At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 222.64 points, an increase of 0.52%, closing at 42,801.72 points; the Nasdaq rose 126.97 points, an increase of 0.70%, closing at 18,196.22 points; the S&P 500 index rose 31.68 points, an increase of 0.55%, closing at 5,770.20 points. As of Friday's close, the Dow fell 2.37% this week, the Nasdaq fell 3.45%. The S&P 500 index fell 3.10%, recording the largest weekly decline since September 2024. The S&P 500 index recorded the largest weekly decline since September 2024.

【European Stocks】 The German DAX 30 index fell 444.31 points, a decrease of 1.89%, closing at 23,003.28 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 4.31 points, a decrease of 0.05%, closing at 8,678.53 points; the French CAC 40 index fell 76.87 points, a decrease of 0.94%, closing at 8,120.80 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 41.70 points, a decrease of 0.76%, closing at 5,465.15 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose 1.15 points, an increase of 0.01%, closing at 13,248.95 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 176.67 points, a decrease of 0.46%, closing at 38,603.00 points.

【Asia-Pacific Stock Markets】 The Nikkei 225 index fell over 2%, the South Korean KOSPI index fell 0.49%, and the Indonesian Composite Index rose 0.27%.

【Foreign Exchange】 The dollar rose 0.04% against the yen, trading at 148.04 yen, down 1.72% for the week, with a trading range of 151.30-146.95 yen. The euro rose 0.49% against the yen, trading at 160.38 yen, up 2.70% for the week; the pound rose 0.34% against the yen, trading at 191.289 yen, up 1.00% for the week.

【Cryptocurrency】 Bitcoin's decline widened to 4%, falling back below 86,000 yuan. On the news front, a senior White House official stated before today's cryptocurrency summit that the first step after establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve and other digital asset reserves in the U.S. would be to audit the amount of cryptocurrency held by the government. The official mentioned that after the closure of the cryptocurrency exchange "Silk Road," the U.S. once held about 400,000 bitcoins, of which about half have been sold. According to research firm Arkham, the U.S. currently holds about $17.5 billion in Bitcoin and approximately $400 million in several other tokens in its known digital wallets.

【Gold】 COMEX gold futures fell 0.26%, trading at $2,919.00 per ounce, up 1.77% for the week, with a trading range of $2,866.30-$2,941.30. COMEX silver futures fell 1.25%, trading at $32.920 per ounce, up 4.55% for the week [Crude Oil] U.S. WTI crude oil closed higher on Friday. U.S. President Trump threatened that if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine, the U.S. may impose new sanctions on Russia. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery rose by $0.68, an increase of over 1.02%, closing at $67.04 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of about 3.90% for the week.

[Macroeconomic News]

First Non-Farm Payroll Report During Trump's Term Released: February Job Growth Accelerates, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.1%. Job growth in the U.S. accelerated in February, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.1%. However, increased uncertainty regarding trade policies and significant layoffs by the U.S. federal government may weaken the resilience of the labor market in the coming months. The employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, with January's non-farm payrolls revised down to an increase of 125,000. This is the first report during President Trump's term. Economists stated that the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration make it difficult for businesses to plan ahead. Since January, business and consumer confidence has plummeted, erasing all gains made after Trump's election victory in November last year, while the stock market has also faced sell-offs. Intermittent government funding freezes have led to unemployment for some contractors and employees receiving federal grants. As most of the recently added jobs are concentrated in low-wage sectors such as leisure and hospitality, this may exacerbate what some economists call a "white-collar recession." Currently, the labor market is supporting the economy, which continues to expand, albeit at a very slow pace.

Trump: The U.S. Will Impose New Tariffs on Canadian Lumber and Dairy Products. On March 7, local time, just one day after granting Canada a one-month tariff grace period, President Trump stated that new tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products would be imposed as early as the same day, with potential tariffs on dairy products reaching 250%. During a speech in the Oval Office, Trump said, "For many years, Canada has been exploiting us on lumber and dairy products," mentioning that Canada imposes about 250% tariffs on U.S. dairy products and "extremely high tariffs" on lumber. Trump stated that the U.S. would impose equivalent tariffs, which could take effect as early as the 7th or possibly on the 10th or 11th.

Powell: No Urgency to Cut Rates Until the Impact of Trump's Policies Becomes Clearer. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Friday that there would be no rush to cut interest rates until the impact of the new Trump administration's policies on the economy becomes clearer. Powell said, "The new administration is implementing significant policy changes in four different areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The uncertainty surrounding these changes and their potential impacts remains very high. Our focus is on distinguishing signals from noise as the outlook changes. We don't have to rush; we are fully capable of waiting for a clearer outlook." Powell's remarks came during a turbulent period when both the stock market and bond yields were declining, following Trump's announcement of high import tariffs on major trading partners Mexico and Canada, which he later postponed. Although Powell stated that the economy "continues to be in good shape," data also indicates that consumer spending may slow, and businesses and corporations are facing "increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook." Powell added that key indicators remain robust, and while the progress in inflation and employment continues to increase, it is uneven.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: The neutral interest rate has risen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the neutral level of the central bank's policy interest rate may have increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. Bowman noted that several factors, such as low borrowing costs and supportive fiscal policies, immediately took precedence after the outbreak, allowing the U.S. economy to maintain a fundamentally solid foundation even after the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes in 2021 and 2022. The same factors may have contributed to the rise of the so-called neutral interest rate. Economists also refer to this level as R-star (R*), which is the policy level at which the Federal Reserve neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. Bowman stated, "In the recent tightening cycle, one way to describe the elasticity of actual economic activity to rising interest rates is to say that some of the factors mentioned earlier have led to an increase in R*."

Reports say Putin responds positively to Trump's ceasefire call, willing to agree to a ceasefire conditionally. Sources revealed that Russia is willing to discuss a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, provided that progress is made towards a final peace resolution. This is the first sign of a positive response from Russian President Putin to U.S. President Trump's ceasefire call, according to the sources, who stated that Russian and U.S. senior officials conveyed this proposal during talks in Saudi Arabia last month. Two sources indicated that both sides must have a clear understanding of the framework principles for a final peace agreement to agree to halt hostilities. Another source noted that Russia will particularly insist on determining the parameters of the final peacekeeping mission, including which countries will participate in the agreement. The U.S. and Ukraine plan to hold talks in Saudi Arabia next week, marking the first direct talks since Trump clashed with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office last week. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated that the meeting aims to reach "a framework for a peace agreement and preliminary ceasefire."

U.S. Secretary of Commerce urges India to lower tariff barriers and consider a "grand" bilateral trade agreement. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo stated on Friday to India Today TV that India should lower the high tariffs imposed on the U.S., as the U.S. intends to pursue "significant achievements" in a bilateral trade agreement between the two countries. Raimondo mentioned in an interview that India's tariffs are among the highest in the world and need to be reconsidered in light of the "special relationship" with the U.S. Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on trade partners, including India, starting in early April, which has raised concerns among exporters across various sectors from automotive to agriculture. Raimondo stated, "We want to focus on bilateral dialogue between India and the U.S. to lower India's tariff levels while protecting certain sectors in India." She noted that for sensitive areas like agriculture, India has long protected the interests of its small farmers and could establish an agreement with certain quotas and restrictions, but India must open up this sector.

[Individual Stock News]

Tesla (TSLA.US) suffers a setback as Musk's political involvement and core business decline hit stock prices. In the weeks following Trump's election victory, investors injected over $700 billion into Tesla stock, betting that Musk's relationship with Trump and his increasingly prominent political status would yield returns for the company But just four months later, this bet has turned into one of the biggest failures in the stock market, as Tesla today erased its post-election gains and is heading towards a record seven-week losing streak. Investors have overlooked a key reality: Tesla's core electric vehicle business, which is the source of its current cash flow, is experiencing a downturn. Republican opposition to electric vehicles will not help either. Meanwhile, Musk's focus on politics seems to only make matters worse. David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said, "After the election, there was a lot of irrational exuberance in the stock price, which seems to have backfired. Many investors rode the coattails of Musk's relationship with Trump instead of focusing on the company's fundamentals."

Microsoft (MSFT.US) AI team develops AI inference model that rivals OpenAI. According to foreign media reports, insiders say that a team led by Carl Kaman Simonian, a deputy to Microsoft's AI chief, has recently completed training a series of Microsoft models, internally referred to as MAI, which perform nearly as well as the leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic in recognized benchmark tests. The team is also training an inference model that uses chain-of-thought techniques to think through problems before solving them, which can directly compete with OpenAI. The insider stated that the team has begun to experiment with replacing OpenAI's models in Microsoft's Copilot with MAI models (which are much larger than the earlier Microsoft Phi models). This plan will put Microsoft's models in direct competition with similar API products from OpenAI and other AI labs. Additionally, according to insiders, Microsoft has tested alternative models for Copilot, including models from Anthropic and Musk's xAI, as well as open-source models from DeepSeek and Meta Platforms.

【Major Ratings】

Morgan Stanley: Raises target price for United States Steel (X.US) from $39.00 to $43.00; raises target price for Broadcom (AVGO.US) from $246.00 to $260.00