U.S. Stock Outlook | Broadcom Rises After Earnings, U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Coming Soon

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of March 7 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.18%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.47%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.49%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.90%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.54%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.57%, priced at $67.40 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.55%, priced at $70.54 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. February Non-Farm Payroll Report is Coming! The U.S. February non-farm employment data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Friday. The market currently expects that the U.S. non-farm payrolls will increase by 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4%. Non-farm employment data has always been an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. Amid rising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, the latest non-farm employment data is expected to provide further insights into the U.S. labor market and economic conditions. If non-farm payrolls decrease for two consecutive months, it indicates a reduced willingness of companies to expand and a weakening momentum of economic growth, which will greatly increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Behind Trump's Tariffs: Lowering U.S. Bond Yields is the Top Priority, and the Decline in U.S. Stocks is Just the "Cost"? Despite the severe impact of President Trump's tariff policies on U.S. stocks in recent weeks, an increasing number of Wall Street strategists point out that Trump's top priority may be to lower U.S. bond yields, even at the cost of a decline in the S&P 500 index. For example, Jason Draho, head of Americas Asset Allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated earlier this week: "There is reason to believe that the index must fall further for Trump to consider it a concerning signal." He added: "We speculate that Trump's current relevant countermeasures are aimed at U.S. Treasuries, and a decline in yields, rather than a rise in stock prices, is the best market indicator of the success of Trump's 2.0 policy."

Is the U.S. Stock Market Completely "Giving Up"? Oppenheimer: The S&P 500 Testing the 200-Day Moving Average is a Good Buying Opportunity. Oppenheimer Asset Management points out that the S&P 500 index has fallen to test its 200-day moving average, which they believe presents a potential buying opportunity for bullish investors seeking quality entry points in the market The company stated: "The S&P 500 index has pulled back to the 200-day moving average support level of 5,725. The lackluster performance at Tuesday's close suggests that there may be some follow-up selling this week. However, we believe there may be a relief rally before further selling later this month." As Oppenheimer pointed out, the index is trading below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages and shows signs of rebounding from its 200-day moving average.

The Federal Reserve is expected to remain steady until late spring! Bostic: The economic situation in the U.S. is still unclear. Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, stated that the impact of President Trump's policies and other factors on the economy may take months to become clear. This suggests that Federal Reserve policymakers may keep interest rates stable at least until late spring. Bostic reiterated that changes in Trump's policies could affect the economy in different ways, increasing economic uncertainty. He stated, "Just this week, we have seen significant fluctuations in policy direction. You have to be patient and not go too far."

Where should investors hide when tariffs hit the market? Economists and strategists generally believe that the risks of Trump's tariff policy outweigh the benefits—high tariffs could trigger a trade war, suppress growth, and push up inflation. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, recently stated, "Such a scale of tariff measures has not been seen in about a century. We are facing an unprecedented policy shift." However, investors do not have to surrender in this tariff-driven sell-off. According to advice from several investment heavyweights, investors can turn to the following areas, including: defensive sectors such as healthcare (healthcare and consumer staples have been the best-performing sectors in U.S. stocks this year); financial stocks (the financial sector is clearly away from commodity production, and banks do not have supply chain issues); quality physical assets (economic uncertainty may increase interest in physical assets like gold); fixed income assets (to hedge against stock market declines and economic slowdowns while diversifying the portfolio).

Individual Stock News

With the assistance of DeepSeek, ASIC demand is heading towards explosive growth, and Broadcom (AVGO.US) shares surged in pre-market trading! The financial report shows that Broadcom's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending February 2025) was $14.92 billion, a 25% increase from the same period last year, exceeding the expected $14.61 billion; non-GAAP net profit was approximately $7.823 billion, a 49% year-on-year increase. The company's two major business segments both showed rapid growth trends. Among them, AI semiconductor revenue was particularly impressive, reaching $4.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 77%; the infrastructure software segment (mainly including VMware) also saw a 47% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching $6.7 billion. The company's CEO Hock Tan pointed out that spending related to artificial intelligence was the key driver of performance growth in the first quarter. Additionally, the company expects second-quarter revenue to be approximately $14.9 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $14.76 billion. The company stated that driven by the continued investment of large technology companies in AI XPU and data center interconnectivity, AI semiconductor revenue is expected to further grow to $4.4 billion in the second quarter As of the time of publication, Broadcom rose nearly 11% in pre-market trading on Friday.

The "double-edged sword effect" of AI servers is emerging! Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US) profit outlook falls far short of expectations, initiating a layoff of 3,000 employees. The financial report shows that Hewlett Packard Enterprise's total revenue for the first fiscal quarter increased by 16% year-on-year to $7.85 billion, slightly exceeding the market's general expectation of $7.81 billion; revenue related to server business reached $4.3 billion, also slightly above market estimates. The adjusted gross margin for the first fiscal quarter decreased by nearly 7 percentage points year-on-year to 29.4%, below the analyst average expectation of 31.3%; the adjusted earnings per share were $0.49, slightly below analyst expectations. In addition, the company expects that for the full fiscal year 2025 ending in October, the adjusted earnings per share will be between $1.70 and $1.90, below the analyst average expectation of $2.12. The company stated that future annual profits will be impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration, weak server sales profit margins, and execution issues. The company also announced it would cut about 3,000 positions in an effort to reduce operating costs and improve profitability. As of the time of publication, Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell over 19% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Consumer confidence cools, Costco (COST.US) Q2 profits fall short of market expectations. The financial report shows that the company's Q2 earnings per share were $4.02, below the average expectation of $4.11; revenue was $63.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, exceeding market expectations. Comparable sales in Q2 grew by 6.8%; comparable sales in the U.S. grew by 8.3%. Membership fee revenue was $1.19 billion, while the market generally expected $1.22 billion. The company stated that it continues to capture market share from retail peers such as Walmart and Target, whether measured by comparable stores or through e-commerce. As of the time of publication, Costco fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Stock price continues to soar! Plus Therapeutics (PSTV.US) lung cancer patient meningeal metastasis drug receives FDA orphan drug designation. Plus Therapeutics announced on Thursday that its treatment drug Rhenium (186Re) Obisbemeda for lung cancer patients with meningeal metastasis has received orphan drug designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The purpose of the FDA granting orphan drug designation is to provide financial incentives for drug developers targeting rare diseases and conditions. In addition to tax credits for clinical trial costs and waivers for marketing application user fees, developers can also gain up to seven years of U.S. market exclusivity. Boosted by this news, Plus Therapeutics surged over 311% on Thursday. As of the time of publication, the stock rose nearly 57% in pre-market trading on Friday.

The century-old pharmacy Walgreens (WBA.US) bids farewell to the stock market! Private equity giant offers $10 billion for privatization. The U.S. chain pharmacy giant Walgreens Boots Alliance, which has been mired in operational difficulties in recent years, announced it will soon go private. The company stated on Thursday that it has reached an agreement with private equity firm Sycamore Partners to exit the U.S. secondary market at an equity value of approximately $10 billion, compared to a market capitalization of about $9.2 billion at the close of trading on Thursday According to the agreement between both parties, Sycamore will acquire Walgreens for $11.45 per share in cash, representing a premium of about 8% over the stock's closing price on Thursday. This acquisition is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. As of the time of publication, Walgreens is up nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:30 U.S. February non-farm payroll data

Beijing time 23:15 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participates in a panel discussion at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business

Beijing time 23:45 FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech

Beijing time the next day 01:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a speech

Beijing time the next day 02:30 U.S. President Trump hosts a cryptocurrency summit at the White House