Behind Trump's tariffs: Lowering U.S. Treasury yields is the primary task, and the decline in U.S. stocks is just a "cost"?
Wall Street strategists point out that Trump's top priority is to lower U.S. bond yields, even if it leads to a decline in the S&P 500 index. Although tariff policies have impacted U.S. stocks, strategists believe that the decline in bond yields is the key indicator of the success of Trump's policies. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has fallen to 4.28%. The Treasury Secretary stated that the White House's focus in the short term is not on the stock market, but rather on small businesses and consumers. The market predicts that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth
According to Zhitong Finance APP, despite the severe impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy on U.S. stocks in recent weeks, an increasing number of Wall Street strategists point out that Trump's top priority may be to lower U.S. bond yields, even at the cost of a decline in the S&P 500 index.
The S&P 500 index fell 1.78% on Thursday, down 2.43% year-to-date.
Jason Draho, Head of Americas Asset Allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated earlier this week: "There is reason to believe that the index must fall further for Trump to consider it a concerning signal."
He added, "We speculate that Trump's current relevant countermeasure is aimed at U.S. Treasuries, with declining yields being the best market indicator of the success of Trump 2.0 policies, rather than rising stock prices."
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is a benchmark for borrowing costs. A decline in bond yields means lower costs for debt refinancing. On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.28%, down from over 4.6% when Trump took office.
On Tuesday, Trump stated in Congress: "Tariffs are meant to make America rich again, to make America great again. This is happening, and it will happen soon. There will be a little disruption, but we can accept it. It won't have a big impact."
When asked about the impact of tariffs on falling stock prices, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet also stated that the White House's short-term priority is not the stock market.
Bencet said earlier this week: "In the medium term, our focus is on the general public. Wall Street is doing well, and it can continue to do well, but our focus is on small businesses and consumers, so we will rebalance the economy."
Market predictions suggest that if the U.S. economy slows to a certain extent, the Federal Reserve will step in to lower interest rates, while tax cuts and deregulation will stimulate economic growth. Draho stated: "Trump may not view an economic slowdown as a policy mistake, but rather as a necessary prerequisite for future economic growth acceleration."
He added: "Investors lack patience, and if this approach is combined with future growth-promoting policies (such as tax cuts and deregulation), they will be more tolerant. These policies may be introduced later this year, which is an important factor that investors should not forget when assessing current economic growth."
Charlie McElligott, Managing Director at Nomura, stated on Wednesday that the Trump administration is "actively acknowledging the 'negative wealth effect' to rebalance the U.S. economic system, as it attempts to shift growth from reliance on excessive government spending to more private sector-driven growth."
"Undoubtedly, this is very dangerous," McElligott said. "Everything has a cost; for example, if the speed or intensity of market shocks increases, he will absolutely be forced to try to use a more moderate and conciliatory tone."
These concessions began on Wednesday when the Trump administration temporarily exempted the three major automakers after imposing a 25% tariff on trade partners Canada and Mexico.
On Thursday, Trump announced that he would suspend tariffs on certain Mexican goods, and the White House subsequently stated that the suspended tariffs would also include goods from Canada