Reassessing U.S. growth, have U.S. stocks reached their bottom?
Recently, the reassessment of U.S. economic growth has led to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market. A chart from Goldman Sachs trader Mike Washington compares the trends of cyclical/defensive stocks with consensus expectations for GDP growth over the next four quarters. According to Goldman Sachs and market expectations, the decline in U.S. stocks may have reached its limit, but based on first-quarter GDP tracking data, there is still room for further decline
Recently, as the market reassesses the growth of the U.S. economy, U.S. stocks have experienced significant adjustments.
Goldman Sachs trader Mike Washington provided a chart that compares the trends of cyclical/defensive stocks (excluding commodities) (dark blue line) with the consensus expectations for U.S. GDP growth over the next four quarters (light blue line). The chart also marks Goldman Sachs' expectations for U.S. GDP in 2025 (green dot) and the Q1 GDP tracking data (gray dot).
As shown in the chart, if we follow Goldman Sachs and the market's consensus expectations, the current decline in U.S. stocks has already been priced in. However, according to the Q1 GDP tracking data, there is still room for further decline.
