Interpretation of the Government Work Report: This year's macro policy focuses more on "investing in people"

Core Viewpoints

This year's government work report sets a high growth target, reflecting a policy orientation of "facing challenges and striving for progress." With a 5% economic growth target, the requirements for macro policies have significantly increased. How to achieve the growth target? This year's policies focus more on "investing in people," with increased emphasis on residents' employment, income, consumption, pension, and childbirth in macro policies. Through "special actions to boost consumption," the aim is to stimulate domestic demand growth to counter the impacts of external environmental changes, which is a significant departure from previous years. On the other hand, this year's report shows a noticeable increase in attention to technology and private enterprises, which is consistent with the spirit of the 217 private enterprise symposium. Technological innovation and private enterprises, the former directly enhance total factor productivity, while the latter stabilize confidence and expectations, are important components for the steady and long-term development of the Chinese economy. Overall, the government work report fully supports stable growth in economic policy, focuses on technological innovation and private enterprises in industrial policy, and promotes the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market in financial policy. A series of policy combinations will help stabilize capital market expectations and confidence.

Specifically, the focus is on the following 10 areas:

(1) GDP Growth Target: This year's government work report sets the economic growth target at around 5%, which is within market expectations, but domestic demand still faces certain pressures, and achieving the target requires increased policy efforts. Unexpectedly, the implied nominal GDP growth rate has been rarely adjusted down to 4.9%. This year's 4% deficit rate and 5.66 trillion fiscal deficit imply a nominal GDP scale of 141.5 trillion, compared to last year's 134.9 trillion, implying a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.9%. This adjustment does not represent a relaxation of price requirements; rather, it is more about easing the contradiction between the fiscal deficit rate and the scale of the deficit. In previous years, the implied deflation index was set too high, making it difficult to balance both the deficit rate and the deficit scale.

(2) Price Target: The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, which does not indicate a reduced requirement for price recovery; on the contrary, it raises the requirements. For a long time, China's 3% CPI target was aimed at preventing excessive price increases leading to inflation, which is clearly no longer applicable in the current environment. Lowering it to 2% signifies a shift in the direction of the price target, from preventing inflation to promoting price increases. After the adjustment, the constraint of the CPI target is strengthened, and the weight of prices in the policy system is also rising, indicating that macro policies are expected to focus more on promoting price recovery.

(3) Fiscal Policy: In terms of total volume, this year's incremental fiscal funds will reach 2.9 trillion, second only to 3.6 trillion in 2020. The deficit of 5.66 trillion + special bonds of 4.4 trillion + ultra-long-term special government bonds of 1.8 trillion = 11.86 trillion, which is 2.9 trillion more than last year (8.96 trillion). Even after excluding the 500 billion injected into banks, the incremental funds directly used for economic construction are still 2.4 trillion more than last year In addition to the total amount, the structure of fiscal policy is also very important. This year's two changes are the direction of special bonds and funds to promote consumption. The report points out that special bonds are focused on four directions: "investment construction, land reserve and acquisition of existing commercial housing, and digesting local government arrears to enterprises"; in terms of promoting consumption, the central funds for "trade-in" currently amount to about 380 billion.

Additionally, this year's government work report emphasizes "debt reduction through development." The report states, "dynamically adjust the list of high-risk debt areas and support the opening of new investment spaces."

(4) In terms of monetary policy, a moderately loose monetary policy remains the logic for the whole year of 2025, with "timely cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates," but the specific timing may depend more on discretion, considering multiple factors such as domestic economy, exchange rates, prices, bank net interest margins, and Federal Reserve policies. In terms of structural monetary policy, the real estate market, stock market, private enterprises, and technology are key areas mentioned, with some policies already being implemented. For example, on February 28, the central bank and five departments jointly held a symposium on financial support for the high-quality development of private enterprises, making policy deployments to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for private enterprises.

(5) There are three aspects of consumption policy deployment. First, consumption subsidies, with 300 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds used for trade-ins, doubling the scale from last year. Second, income subsidies, such as social security and maternity, with the report stating, "the minimum standard for basic pensions for urban and rural residents will be increased by 20 yuan, and the basic pensions for retirees will be appropriately raised," and "formulate policies to promote childbirth and provide childcare subsidies." Third, institutional construction, such as creating a good consumption environment and improving the normal growth mechanism of labor wages.

(6) In terms of real estate, three policy areas are of concern. First, the regular cancellation of purchase and sale restrictions and the reduction of mortgage rates. The report states, "implement policies based on local conditions to reduce restrictive measures." However, the continued reduction of mortgage rates may be constrained by provident fund rates to avoid the issue of inverted mortgage and provident fund rates, and it is likely that we will first see a reduction in provident fund rates before further reductions in mortgage rates.

Second, attention is paid to whether the scale of monetary compensation will expand. The report states, "intensify the implementation of the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses." Last October, the central government proposed to add 1 million sets of urban village transformation and dilapidated house transformation through monetary compensation. If there is to be an intensified push this year, whether monetary compensation will continue to expand is a concern.

Third, attention is paid to the progress of land reserve. Since last October, special bonds have expanded to the fields of land reserve and existing housing, with the two reserves progressing at different speeds. The special bonds for land reserves have recently begun to be implemented, while the reserve of existing housing has not yet been realized. Currently, the special bonds for land reserves have formed a closed loop of "issuance - reserve - development - revenue," while the reserve of existing housing still needs to address issues of property rights integration and long-term operating cost sharing, with the involvement of special bonds being relatively slow.

(7) Regarding industrial policy, will there be a new round of capacity reduction? Recently, there has been increased discussion in the market about a new round of capacity reduction, and the government work report emphasizes "comprehensive rectification of 'involutionary' competition." We believe that even if capacity reduction reoccurs, it will be a mild capacity reduction policy, primarily guided by market-oriented clearing, and the intensity will not be as great as in the previous two rounds. First, the current capacity pressure is mostly in emerging industries, which still belong to encouraged development areas, with relatively minor social issues such as environmental protection, differing significantly from the previous two rounds; second, the current employment pressure is considerable, with no strong demand-side policies like in the previous two rounds to offset the employment impact of capacity reduction; third, from the perspective of the demand for price recovery, the pressure on service prices is much greater than in the previous two rounds, and industrial capacity reduction cannot lead to a recovery in service prices.

(8) Technology and Private Enterprises: Since January 2025, domestic industrial policies have focused on two areas: one is AI and technological development, and the other is the private economy, such as the high-level symposium for private enterprises. In this regard, this year's government work report has two changes: first, it emphasizes "institutional guarantees for enterprises to participate in national technological innovation decision-making and undertake major technological projects," which is a new change after enterprises have made significant breakthroughs in the technology field. It is expected that relevant systems will be introduced in 2025 to ensure the level of enterprise participation in major national technological projects. Second, there is a greater determination to resolve the issue of payment arrears for private enterprises. The report points out "to intensify efforts to clear overdue payments to enterprises, strengthen source governance and punishment for dishonesty, and implement a long-term mechanism to resolve the issue of overdue payments to enterprises," and will utilize special local government bonds to accelerate the clearing process. The issue of overdue payments now has a clear source of funding, and governance efficiency will significantly improve.

(9) Energy Consumption Policy: Under the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the energy consumption target has been raised from 2.5% to 3%, and the energy consumption policy requirements are expected to be stronger than in previous years. The report states, "The energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to decrease by about 3%, and the ecological environment quality continues to improve." Last year's goal during the Two Sessions was to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2.5%, and the actual reduction was 3.8%, exceeding the annual target. From the requirements of the five-year plan, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, energy consumption per unit of GDP must be reduced by 13.5% compared to 2020, and there is still a certain gap. If we want to get as close to the target as possible, we need to make a strong push in 2025, and the requirements for energy consumption policy are expected to be strengthened compared to previous years.

(10) Capital Market: The report states, "Deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, vigorously promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, and strengthen the construction of strategic force reserves and market stabilization mechanisms. Reform and optimize the stock issuance and listing and merger and acquisition systems. Accelerate the development of a multi-level bond market." It is expected that this year's policy focus will be on balancing the investment and financing functions of the capital market, addressing the current market issue of "heavy financing and light investment," and promoting the formation of a virtuous cycle of investment and financing ecology.

Main Text

1. Growth Target: "Around 5%" target, policies focus more on "investing in people"

Within expectations: This year's government work report sets the economic growth target at around 5%, which is within market expectations, but domestic demand still faces certain pressures, and achieving the target requires stronger policy efforts. Although economic growth reached 5% in 2024, among the "three drivers," final consumption and capital formation contributed a total of only 3.5 points, while net exports contributed 1.5 points, indicating that domestic demand remains weak. The uncertainty of the external environment in 2025 is expected to reduce the pull of net exports on the economy For example, during the last tariff period, net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth in 2017, and after the tariffs were implemented in 2018, this figure dropped to -0.6 percentage points. Therefore, to achieve the 5% target in 2025, relying on current consumption and investment is under pressure, and policies need to work harder.

Under the 5% target, the requirements for macro policies have significantly increased, and this year's policies focus more on "investing in people," with increased emphasis on areas such as employment, income, consumption, pension, and childbirth in macro policies. The report points out that "more financial resources should be directed towards 'investing in people,' serving people's livelihoods, supporting job expansion, promoting income growth and reducing burdens for residents, and strengthening consumption incentives to form a virtuous cycle of economic development and improvement of people's livelihoods."

Unexpected: Implied nominal GDP growth rate is rarely adjusted down to 4.9%. This year's 4% deficit rate and 5.66 trillion yuan fiscal deficit imply a nominal GDP scale of 141.5 trillion yuan, compared to last year's 134.9 trillion yuan, resulting in an implied nominal GDP growth rate of 4.9%, corresponding to a GDP deflator index of about -0.1%. In contrast, in previous years, the implied nominal GDP growth rate from deficits was mostly around 7%. For example, last year's 3% deficit rate and 4.06 trillion yuan deficit implied a nominal GDP of 135.3 trillion yuan, compared to 126 trillion yuan in 2023 (before adjustment), with a nominal growth rate of 7.4% and an implied GDP deflator index of 2.4%.

This adjustment does not indicate a relaxation of price requirements; rather, it alleviates the contradiction between the fiscal deficit rate and the scale of the deficit. In previous years, the implied deflator index was set too high, making it difficult to balance both the deficit rate and the deficit scale. For instance, if GDP reaches 134.9 trillion yuan in 2024, under a 3% deficit rate, the deficit scale should not exceed 4.047 trillion yuan (if the nominal GDP were not raised after the fifth national census, the deficit limit would be lower), which is difficult to reconcile with the 4.06 trillion yuan deficit scale at the beginning of the year.

More importantly, the price requirement is that the CPI target has been lowered to 2%, increasing the emphasis on prices.

2. Prices: CPI target lowered to 2%

This year's government work report sets the CPI target at around 2%, marking the first time in many years that it has been lowered below 3%. In comparison, the CPI growth rate has been 0.2% for the past two years, and the last time it reached 2% was in 2022 The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, which does not mean a reduction in the requirement for price increases; on the contrary, it raises the expectations. For a long time, our country's CPI target of 3% was aimed at preventing excessive price increases that could lead to inflation. In the current environment, this is clearly no longer applicable. Lowering it to 2% signifies a shift in the price target from preventing inflation to promoting price increases. After the adjustment, the binding nature of the CPI target has strengthened, and the weight of prices in the policy system is also increasing. It is expected that macro policies will focus more on promoting price recovery.

It can be seen that this year's government work report places a significantly higher emphasis on the CPI target. The report states: "The increase in consumer prices is around 2%, aimed at improving the supply-demand relationship through various policies and reforms, keeping the overall price level within a reasonable range. Achieving these goals is not easy and requires hard work."

Looking at our past history of low inflation, the recovery of prices is not achieved overnight; three conditions are essential. First, there must be strong stimulus or significant reforms on the demand side. The representative of stimulus policies is the large-scale issuance of construction bonds for several consecutive years after 1998, and the "monetization of shantytown renovations" in 2015. The representative of reform policies includes the housing reform in 1998 and joining the WTO in 2001, which brought growth in real estate and external demand. Second, the supply side often requires policy guidance for capacity clearance. Whether it is the three-year rescue plan focusing on state-owned enterprises in 1998 or the supply-side reform in 2015, eliminating low-end excess capacity has been an important driving force for price recovery. Third, there must be opportunities for price increases in internationally priced commodities, such as the low rebound in oil prices in 2001 and 2016, which provided a favorable environment for our price recovery.

In 2025, CPI recovery will make consumption policies more important than industrial policies. We believe that, given the current price situation, demand-side policies are more important than supply-side policies. This is because the current low inflation is different from the two previous rounds in 1998 and 2015, where the price pressure in the service sector is much greater. Simply relying on capacity reduction in the industrial sector cannot enhance service prices; more importantly, it is necessary to stimulate service consumption demand, which means that consumption policies are key to price recovery, rather than industrial policies.

3. Finance: More proactive in total, but structure is more important.

From a total perspective, this year's incremental fiscal funds will reach 2.9 trillion, second only to 3.6 trillion in 2020. The government work report indicates that this year's deficit ratio has increased to 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year, and the deficit scale has increased by 1.6 trillion from last year. In addition, special bonds have increased to 4.4 trillion (an increase of 500 billion from last year), and the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is 1.3 trillion (last year was 1 trillion), totaling 11.86 trillion Increased by 2.9 trillion compared to last year (8.96 trillion). Compared to the fiscal strength of the past few years, the 2.9 trillion increase in funds is second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020, significantly larger than in other years. Of course, even excluding the 500 billion injected into banks, the incremental funds directly used for economic construction are still 2.4 trillion more than last year.

In addition to the total amount, the structure of fiscal policy is also very important. This year's two changes are in the direction of special bonds and funds to promote consumption.

The report points out that special bonds are focused on four directions: "mainly used for investment construction, land reserve and acquisition of existing commercial housing, and to digest the accounts payable owed by local governments to enterprises," among which land reserve has recently been implemented in some provinces, but the progress of special bonds for the acquisition of existing commercial housing has been slow, and digesting the accounts payable owed by local governments to enterprises is also a new proposal since last year, receiving more attention after this year's 217 private enterprise symposium.

In terms of promoting consumption, the central funds for "trade-in" currently amount to about 380 billion. On one hand, the first batch of 81 billion "trade-in" fiscal subsidy funds was implemented in January, and the scope of subsidies has been expanded to electronic devices; on the other hand, this government's work report pointed out that "arranging 300 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support the trade-in of consumer goods."

Additionally, in terms of debt reduction, this year's government work report emphasizes "debt reduction in development." The report states, "dynamically adjust the list of high-risk debt areas and support the opening of new investment spaces." Debt reduction cannot come at the expense of local development; "debt reduction in development, development in debt reduction," while steadily advancing debt reduction, new investment spaces should be opened without adding hidden debts to promote economic growth. A representative policy is the 10 trillion debt reduction over five years since last year, and more "debt reduction in development" policies can be expected in the future.

4. Monetary Policy: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy Remains the Main Line for the Year

In terms of monetary policy, moderately loose monetary policy will still be the logic for the entire year of 2025. There will definitely be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, but the specific timing may depend more on discretion, based on multiple considerations such as domestic economy, prices, exchange rates, and Federal Reserve policies. The report continues the expression from the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, adjusting the tone of monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose," and requires "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions." In the short term, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions may face constraints from the economic environment. First, the domestic economy is performing well, with economic growth in the fourth quarter rebounding from 4.6% to 5.4%, and strong industrial production driven by trade-in and exports after the Spring Festival, leaving no immediate concerns for the domestic economy; second, the Trump 2.0 policy has raised potential inflation, and the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate cuts will also limit the space for domestic monetary easing Thirdly, the narrowing of banks' net interest margins and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate brought about by tariffs will also affect the implementation of short-term loose monetary policy.

In terms of structural monetary policy, the real estate market, stock market, private enterprises, and technology are key areas mentioned, and policies are already being implemented. Among them, the real estate market includes both demand-side measures to lower mortgage rates and supply-side "white list" mechanisms. Regarding private enterprises, on February 28, the central bank and five other departments jointly held a symposium on financial support for the high-quality development of private enterprises, making policy deployments to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for private enterprises.

5. Consumption: Three Deployments to Promote Consumption

From the government work report, there are three deployments regarding consumption policy. First, consumption subsidies, with a special long-term government bond of 300 billion used for trade-ins, doubling the scale from last year. Second, income subsidies, such as social security and maternity benefits; the report states, "The minimum standard for basic pensions for urban and rural residents will be increased by 20 yuan, and the basic pensions for retirees will be appropriately raised," and "formulate policies to promote childbirth and provide childcare subsidies." Third, institutional construction, such as creating a good consumption environment and improving the normal growth mechanism of labor wages.

Promoting consumption is the primary task for expanding domestic demand, and since the beginning of the year, high-level central meetings have repeatedly deployed consumption policies. After the Spring Festival, the State Council's regular meetings in February and special meetings have discussed and deployed consumption policies multiple times. For example, on February 10, the State Council's regular meeting specifically studied work related to boosting consumption; on February 20, the State Council held its twelfth special study with the theme of "insisting on combining consumption promotion with benefiting people's livelihoods, vigorously boosting consumption, and expanding domestic demand"; on February 21, the State Council's regular meeting again listed service consumption as one of the themes.

6. Real Estate: Focus on the Implementation of Extraordinary Policies

The government work report states, "Continue to exert efforts to stabilize the real estate market." Real estate is an important variable determining this year's economic trend. In the fourth quarter of last year, the added value of the real estate industry turned positive, becoming one of the main drivers of economic recovery. Next, attention needs to be paid to the implementation of three policies.

First, regular policies such as canceling purchase and sale restrictions and lowering mortgage rates. The report states, "Implement policies based on local conditions to reduce restrictive measures." However, the continued reduction of mortgage rates may be constrained by the provident fund rates to avoid the issue of inverted mortgage rates and provident fund rates, so we may first see a reduction in provident fund rates before further reductions in mortgage rates.

Second, pay attention to whether the scale of monetary placement will expand. The report states, "Increase efforts to implement the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses." Last October, the central government proposed to add 1 million sets of urban village renovations and dilapidated house renovations through monetary placement. If efforts are to be increased this year, will monetary placement continue to expand?

Third, focus on the progress of land storage. Since last October, special bonds have been expanded to the fields of land storage and existing housing storage. The two storage processes are progressing at different speeds, with land storage special bonds recently starting to be implemented, while the storage of existing housing has not yet been realized. Currently, the land storage special bonds have formed a closed loop of "issuance - reserve - development - revenue," while the storage of existing housing still needs to address issues of property integration and long-term operating cost sharing, with the involvement of special bonds relatively slow 7. Industrial Policy: Will Capacity Reduction Reappear?

Will there be a new round of capacity reduction? Recently, discussions in the market regarding a new round of capacity reduction have increased, and the government work report emphasizes "comprehensive rectification of 'involutionary' competition." This is a continuation of policies since July last year. The Politburo meeting in July 2024 proposed "strengthening industry self-discipline to prevent 'involutionary' vicious competition," and the economic work conference in December further emphasized "comprehensive rectification of 'involutionary' competition." On February 10, the State Council meeting pointed out that "we must insist on addressing issues from both supply and demand sides, and comprehensively resolve structural contradictions in key industries."

Currently, capacity pressure has accelerated from traditional manufacturing to strategic emerging industries such as new energy. Emerging fields like photovoltaics and lithium batteries have formed an unexpectedly rapid capacity expansion in the short term under policy incentives and capital influx, leading to a sharp increase in supply-demand imbalance pressure, with the photovoltaic price index dropping nearly 90% compared to ten years ago. This phenomenon has a chain reaction on macroeconomic operations: on one hand, the oversupply of industrial products exacerbates low inflation risks through price transmission mechanisms; since 2022, the PPI index has continued to operate at low levels, confirming the suppressive effect of overcapacity on the price system, and the GDP deflator index has recorded negative growth for seven consecutive quarters, setting a historical record; on the other hand, excessive competition has led enterprises to generally fall into the dilemma of "increased volume but decreased prices," with the profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size declining for three consecutive years since 2022. Many industrial enterprises have encountered the paradox of "increased revenue but no profit," severely restricting the industry's sustainable development capacity and investment in technological innovation.

We believe that even if capacity reduction reappears, it will be a mild capacity reduction policy, primarily focusing on market-oriented capacity clearing, and the intensity will not be as great as in the previous two rounds. First, the current capacity pressure is mostly in emerging industries, which still belong to encouraged development areas, with fewer social issues such as environmental protection, differing significantly from the previous two rounds; second, current employment pressure is significant, and there are no strong demand-side policies like in the previous two rounds to offset the employment impact brought by capacity reduction; third, from the perspective of the demand for price recovery, the pressure on service prices is much greater than in the previous two rounds, and industrial capacity reduction cannot lead to a recovery in service prices.

One policy example is the reduction of export tax rebates for certain industrial products last November, indicating that the policy is more focused on guiding capacity rather than implementing a one-size-fits-all capacity reduction like in the previous two rounds.

8. Technology and Private Enterprises: Focus on Two Issues

Since January 2025, domestic industrial policy has focused on two areas: one is AI and technological development, and the other is the private economy, such as the high-level symposium for private enterprises held in 217. This year's government work report has two changes regarding this: First, emphasize "institutional guarantees for enterprises to participate in national scientific and technological innovation decision-making and undertake major scientific and technological projects." This is a new change after enterprises have made significant breakthroughs in the field of science and technology. It is expected that relevant systems will be introduced by 2025 to ensure the level of enterprise participation in national major scientific and technological projects.

Second, there is a greater determination to solve the problem of payment arrears for private enterprises. The report points out "to intensify efforts to clear overdue payments to enterprises, strengthen source governance and credit punishment, and implement a long-term mechanism to solve the problem of overdue payments to enterprises." It will also utilize special local government bonds to accelerate the clearing process, providing a clear funding source for the overdue payment issue, which will significantly improve governance efficiency.

9. Energy Consumption: Does the increase in energy consumption targets mean stronger policy requirements?

Under the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the energy consumption target has been raised from 2.5% to 3%, and energy consumption policy requirements are expected to be stronger than in previous years. The report states, "The energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to decrease by about 3%, and the ecological environment quality continues to improve." Last year's goal during the Two Sessions was to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2.5%, but the actual reduction was 3.8%, exceeding the annual target. According to the five-year planning requirements, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, energy consumption per unit of GDP must be reduced by 13.5% compared to 2020. There is still a certain gap, and to get as close to the target as possible, efforts must be made in 2025. The requirements for energy consumption policies are expected to be strengthened compared to previous years.

10. Capital Market: Strengthen the construction of strategic force reserves and market stabilization mechanisms.

The report points out "to deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, vigorously promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, and strengthen the construction of strategic force reserves and market stabilization mechanisms. Reform and optimize the stock issuance and listing and merger and acquisition systems. Accelerate the development of a multi-level bond market." It is expected that this year's policy focus will be on balancing the investment and financing functions of the capital market, addressing the current market issue of "heavy financing and light investment," and promoting the formation of a virtuous cycle of investment and financing ecology. Additionally, the "construction of strategic force reserves and market stabilization mechanisms" is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to whether other related policies will be introduced besides the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market.

This article is authored by Lu Zhe and Zhan Shuo, sourced from Macro Fans Zhe, original title: "【Dongxing Lu Zhe】Macro Policy Should 'Invest in People'—Learning from the Work Report Spirit"

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