Is Dan Bin bearish on NVIDIA?
Dan Bin shared the views of his colleague Huang Haiping in his social circle, believing that NVIDIA's products are essentially "capital goods" or "durable consumer goods," leading to significant demand fluctuations. Huang Haiping pointed out that computing power is a reusable resource, and although the demand for computing power is rising, the demand for AI chips may decline. He mentioned that NVIDIA's revenue volatility is extremely high, raising market speculation about Dan Bin's bearish outlook on NVIDIA
Recently, Dan Bin shared a thought from his colleague Huang Haiping in his social circle, pointing directly at NVIDIA's "vital point"—not its "2B" or "non-platform" attributes, but its essence as a "capital good"/"durable consumer good."
Huang Haiping stated that if a company's product is a "fast-moving consumer good," the demand will be relatively stable, such as in food and beverages, online games, and coal. However, if a company's product is a "capital good" or "durable consumer good," because it can be reused, the downstream demand usually experiences significant fluctuations.
Huang Haiping also mentioned that there is an error in the application of the Jevons Paradox in computing power: computing power is a reusable resource. In other words, even if the total demand for computing power rises significantly each year, the demand for AI chips that produce computing power may actually decline.
He also referred to the theories of "second-order derivatives" and "third-order derivatives," but simply put, NVIDIA's revenue and revenue growth are highly volatile, like a roller coaster.
However, Dan Bin himself did not comment much on this, merely sharing this statement quietly in his social circle. Once this was said, it immediately sparked heated discussions in the market. Could it be that Dan Bin is also "turning against" and becoming bearish on NVIDIA?
