U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The market welcomes a significant week, with cryptocurrency concept stocks rising broadly in pre-market trading

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of March 3rd (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.17%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.49%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.65%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.94%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.74%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.10%, priced at $69.83 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.22%, priced at $72.97 per barrel.

Market News

The market welcomes a significant week! Trump's speech and February non-farm payrolls are highly anticipated. In the first trading week of March, a series of major events and important economic data are on the horizon. Trump's speech at the joint session of Congress on Tuesday is crucial, as it relates to whether U.S. tariff policies will escalate further, whether there will be new actions regarding budget cuts from DOGE (Department of Efficiency of the U.S. Government) led by Musk, and when economic policies aimed at domestic tax cuts and growth will arrive. Additionally, the White House will host its first cryptocurrency summit on March 7th, which Trump will preside over; this meeting is very important for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which have been experiencing a continuous decline recently. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. If the Beige Book shows signs of a "soft landing" for the economy, it may support the strength of U.S. stocks and the dollar index, but could weaken market bets on a rate cut in March. Furthermore, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release February non-farm employment data on Friday local time. Recently, several U.S. economic data points have weakened, including consumer confidence, business activity, and retail sales. Market forecasts suggest that February employment is expected to increase by 133,000 jobs, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4%. Non-farm employment data has always been an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. If the number of new non-farm jobs decreases for two consecutive months, it indicates a reduced willingness of companies to expand, weakening economic growth momentum, which will greatly increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm: the S&P 500's short-term upward trend faces "roadblocks," and any rebound may be short-lived. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin pointed out in a report that last week, as the benchmark index briefly erased its gains since 2025, investors' risk exposure decreased, but the current level of exposure is still not low enough to indicate "tactical upside potential due to low holdings." Costan stated, "To completely reverse the recent weakness in the U.S. stock market, the outlook for U.S. economic growth must improve." At the same time, he lowered his full-year earnings growth forecast from 11% to 9%. Scott Rubner, Managing Director and Tactical Expert at Goldman Sachs Global Markets, also expressed that he believes market demand is insufficient to support a sustained rally. Rubner turned bearish last month, citing a gradual decrease in fund inflows from retail and other buyers. He pointed out that the market is in the final stage of position adjustment.

The "two-year leading cycle" of the seven giants of the U.S. stock market has sounded the alarm for its end, with put demand from options traders sharply rising. Due to growing investor concerns about the U.S.'s dominance in artificial intelligence and the overall economy, the so-called "seven giants" of the U.S. stock market have underperformed the broader market, prompting investors to seek more protection. In the latter half of February, the option costs for most of the "seven giants" have been rising. For example, Apple's three-month implied volatility reached its highest level since September of last year last week, with its skew reaching the highest level since August of last year—when the unwinding of yen carry trades shocked global financial markets and stimulated demand for protection. Another unsettling sign is the increasing positions in put options for stocks like Nvidia.

"Bubble hunter" Grantham warns again: U.S. stocks are in a "super bubble," ranking third in history. Legendary market strategist Jeremy Grantham recently issued a warning that the U.S. stock market is currently in a "super bubble," which ranks third in size historically, only behind the Japanese bubble of 1989 and the real estate bubble of the same period. Grantham clearly stated in an interview, "I have always believed that the longer a bubble lasts, the larger it becomes, and the higher it reaches, the more exciting it is, while also being more dangerous, and the current U.S. stock market has risen to the level of a super bubble." However, he also pointed out that there is still a certain gap between the current U.S. stock bubble and the 1989 Japanese bubble and the real estate bubble at that time. In fact, this is not the first time Grantham has predicted a crash in the U.S. stock market. He previously warned investors to avoid U.S. stocks in 2024 and predicted that U.S. stocks would fall by 50% in 2023; however, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 23% in both years.

Concerns about stagflation return to Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve may face a dilemma. Recently, concerns about the U.S. economy potentially falling into stagflation have been gradually rising. Several top analysts have indicated that the U.S. may face a situation of high inflation and low economic growth simultaneously. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, stated that he believes the elements of stagflation may have already emerged. He pointed out that global trade is becoming more fragmented, global immigration is increasing, and industrial policies in other countries are limiting competition, all of which could lead to rising prices. BCA Research Chief Strategist Daval Joshi believes that the U.S. could fall into "mini-stagflation" as early as the second quarter of this year. Joshi noted that inflation appears to be "stuck" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Higher prices will make the Federal Reserve reluctant to cut interest rates further this year, which could exacerbate the slowdown in economic growth. He added, "I think this could happen very soon." Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel, stated that he expects the U.S. to enter a mild stagflation scenario in the second half of 2025, and believes this situation could lead to a 10% decline in U.S. stocks

Individual Stock News

Intel (INTC.US) 18A process chips attract attention: Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Broadcom (AVGO.US) are conducting production tests, while AMD (AMD.US) is in the evaluation stage. Two insiders stated that Nvidia and Broadcom are collaborating with Intel on production tests, showing initial confidence in Intel's advanced manufacturing technology. The tests utilize Intel's 18A process, a series of technologies and methods developed over several years capable of producing advanced artificial intelligence processors and other complex chips. These tests indicate that the two companies are close to deciding whether to award Intel a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars for foundry services. This decision could bring unexpected revenue to Intel and endorse its foundry business. AMD is also evaluating whether Intel's 18A manufacturing process meets its needs, but it is currently unclear if AMD has sent test chips to Intel's factory. As of the time of writing, in pre-market trading on Monday, Intel rose nearly 6%, Broadcom increased over 2%, AMD gained over 1%, and Nvidia fell nearly 1%.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks surge! In pre-market trading on Monday, as of the time of writing, Bit Origin (BTOG.US) soared over 480%, Argo Blockchain (ARBK.US) rose nearly 23%, Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US) increased nearly 14%, Strategy (MSTR.US) surged over 12%, MARA Holdings (MARA.US), Riot (RIOT.US), and Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) rose over 10%, and Coinbase (COIN.US) increased over 9%. On the news front, Trump stated on social media that his executive order in January will create a cryptocurrency reserve, which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, SOL, and ADA. Additionally, Trump will host the first White House cryptocurrency summit on March 7, further establishing his support for the cryptocurrency industry.

Musk sparks public outrage! Protests erupt in multiple U.S. cities, calling for "Tesla (TSLA.US) to be delisted." According to reports, numerous protesters gathered outside Tesla stores in various U.S. cities on March 1, local time, protesting against Tesla CEO Musk for leading the government's efficiency department to push for federal spending cuts at the request of President Trump. Reports indicate that these protests calling for "Tesla to be delisted" are part of a growing backlash in North America and Europe against Musk's chaotic role in Washington. Critics of Trump and Musk hope to stigmatize the purchase of Tesla vehicles through boycotts. It is reported that the "Tesla delisting" protest website lists over 50 events, with more demonstrations planned for later in March across the U.S., as well as in the UK, Spain, and Portugal. As of the time of writing, Tesla rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Is the automotive chip market undergoing a dramatic change? Automotive CIS giant ON Semiconductor (ON.US) seeks to acquire sensor leader Allegro (ALGM.US). According to insiders, Allegro Microsystems, a supplier of sensor integrated circuits for the automotive and industrial sectors, is attracting acquisition interest from industry giant ON Semiconductor Media reports indicate that ON Semiconductor has recently hired a professional consulting team to advance the acquisition process of Allegro, and sources suggest that other bidders may have emerged, while Allegro has not indicated whether it is willing to accept ON Semiconductor's potential acquisition offer. As of the time of publication, Allegro surged over 10% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:45 US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final

Beijing time 23:00 US February ISM Manufacturing PMI

Beijing time the next day 00:35 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: Sea (SE.US), Target (TGT.US), Best Buy (BBY.US)