Next week's heavy schedule: The National Two Sessions kick off, Trump's congressional speech... A week packed with significant events!

From March 3 to March 9, key financial events overview, all times are in Beijing time:

Key focus for the week: In terms of major events, the third session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the third session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 4 and 5, respectively. Trump will deliver a speech in the U.S. Congress, host a White House cryptocurrency summit, and implement tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

In terms of economic data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for February, China's February CPI, Caixin PMI, import and export data, the European Central Bank interest rate decision, as well as speeches from Powell and other Federal Reserve officials, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions.

In terms of geopolitical issues, the European Union will hold an emergency summit on March 6 to discuss the next steps regarding Ukraine and European security; Egypt will hold an emergency Arab summit to discuss the Palestinian situation.

National Two Sessions

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decided that the third session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2025. The main agenda of the meeting is to listen to and review the work report of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the report on the proposal work since the second session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference; attend the third session of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China to listen to and discuss the government work report and other relevant reports.

According to the decision, the third session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2025. The agenda for the third session of the 14th National People's Congress is proposed to include: reviewing the government work report; examining the report on the implementation of the 2024 national economic and social development plan and the draft of the 2025 national economic and social development plan; examining the report on the implementation of the 2024 central and local budgets and the draft of the 2025 central and local budgets; reviewing the proposal submitted by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress regarding the "Draft Amendment to the Law on the Election of Representatives of the National People's Congress and Local People's Congresses of the People's Republic of China"; reviewing the work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; reviewing the work report of the Supreme People's Court; reviewing the work report of the Supreme People's Procuratorate.

Implementation of Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Trump's Two Major Speeches

According to CCTV News, on February 27 local time, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that the tariff measures on Mexico and Canada will still be implemented on March 4. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products. On February 3, Trump announced a 30-day delay in the implementation of the tariff measures on the two countries.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated that Canada does not wish to engage in a trade war with the U.S., but if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will respond extremely strongly immediately."On the same day, Trump will deliver a speech at a joint session of Congress and may introduce other significant policies.

According to media reports, House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that this is an opportunity to share his "America First vision" to plan the future of national legislation when formally inviting Trump. Trump's speech is expected to focus on his policy priorities, economic plans, and foreign affairs agenda.

What is known so far is that Trump will speak at 9 PM Eastern Time at the joint session of Congress, following the traditional practice of newly elected presidents. Media expects his speech to outline key legislative goals and set the tone for his second term. Although Trump's speech may cover economic, national security, and foreign policy issues, specific policy statements remain uncertain.

On Friday (March 7), Trump will host the White House's first cryptocurrency summit, further establishing his support for the crypto industry. Notably, Bitcoin has plummeted 28% since its peak on inauguration day.

The White House stated in a release on Friday (February 28) that Trump will speak at the conference, "Participants will include well-known founders, CEOs, and investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the President's Digital Asset Working Group."

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

On Friday, the U.S. February non-farm payroll report will be released, and amid federal government layoffs and slowing consumer spending, the pace of job growth in the U.S. may be relatively moderate.

According to the median forecast from media, employment is expected to increase by 160,000 in February, slightly improving from the previous month's 143,000, but below the growth seen in the last few months of 2024. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%.

Friday's report will provide the Federal Reserve with the latest information on the labor market, which has been a major support for household spending and the economy. However, the rapid policy changes of the Trump administration, including the government efficiency department led by Musk pushing for a reduction in the size of the federal government and cuts in spending, may exacerbate uncertainty in the outlook.

The February employment report may also reflect the initial impacts of the federal government's hiring freeze, although the layoffs of thousands of civil servants occurred too late to have a substantial impact this time. Although federal government jobs account for only a small portion of overall employment, funding cuts may affect the private sector that supports government-funded projects.

Bloomberg economists warn:

Softening sentiment, reduced spending, and downward revisions to first-quarter GDP growth expectations have raised market concerns about economic growth over the past week, challenging the notion of American economic "exceptionalism." Data and events in the coming week may turn these sparks of concern into real flames.

China's February CPI, Caixin PMI, Import and Export Data

• March 9, Sunday: China's February CPI

The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the CPI and PPI data for February. Previous data showed that in January, the national consumer price index rose by 0.5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. Previous data also indicated that in January, the national industrial producer price and purchase price both fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate the same as the previous month; both fell by 0.2% month-on-monthHuachuang Securities expects that the CPI in February may drop to around -0.6% year-on-year. In the short term, the main considerations are: 1) Post-holiday agricultural product prices may significantly decline. 2) Due to the timing of the Spring Festival, the core CPI may temporarily drop to around 0% year-on-year. 3) International oil prices are falling, and refined oil prices are likely to see a round of adjustments in the middle of this month.

• March 7th, Friday: China's January-February Import and Export Data

On March 7th, Wednesday, the General Administration of Customs will release China's January-February import and export data, as well as foreign exchange reserve conditions, focusing on export situations under tariff uncertainties.

Shenwan Hongyuan previously stated that the unexpected rebound in December exports was significantly driven by the dual effect of "export grabbing." The main line is reflected in the "export grabbing" towards the United States, more concentrated in the intermediate and capital goods sectors rather than consumer goods. The second main line is reflected in the collaborative supply exports to emerging countries, in line with China's accelerated overseas supply chain restructuring to prevent potential tariff-related issues.

• Caixin PMI

On Monday and Wednesday, the Caixin manufacturing and services PMI data will be released. The previously released official manufacturing PMI for China in February was 50.2, returning to the expansion zone.

The Minsheng Macro Tao Chuan team stated that on one hand, the significant rebound in February PMI is indeed due to seasonal factors from the Spring Festival; on the other hand, the better-than-seasonal PMI production index and PMI new orders index indicate that the resumption of work and production and demand recovery after the New Year is actually stronger than in previous years, which has also driven the rebound in price indicators. However, amid increasing external uncertainties, enterprises remain in a wait-and-see mood, and the pace and space for fiscal efforts in the second quarter are key.

ECB Interest Rate Decision, EU to Hold Emergency Summit Again

This week, the European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision and hold a monetary policy press conference. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in March, which would be the sixth rate cut since last June.

Market attention will shift to changes in the bank's "restrictive" language regarding monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers are increasingly uncertain about how far they should go, and the new economic forecasts released alongside the interest rate decision may provide some clarity, although the threat of U.S. tariffs casts a shadow over the outlook.

This week, the Eurozone will release the latest inflation data. Following mixed signals from Germany and France, inflation data may slow to 2.6%. Although the inflation rate remains significantly above the ECB's 2% target, a slowdown in inflation will provide some relief to the ECB.

The EU will hold another emergency summit on March 6th to discuss the next steps regarding Ukraine and European security. European leaders will meet to discuss how to respond to the Ukraine issue and how to address the U.S. government's shift in stance on this matter. At the same time, the EU's proposed increase in defense spending has not yet reached a consensus among member states.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• Speeches by Powell and other Federal Reserve officials, Federal Reserve Economic Conditions Beige Book

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will attend the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business to speak on the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting on March 18-19, with the market expecting to maintain interest rates unchanged to assess labor market and inflation trends as well as recent government policy changesIn addition, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will also speak, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will make an appearance. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

• Egypt holds an emergency Arab summit to discuss the Palestinian situation

According to China News Service citing Egypt's Al-Ahram newspaper, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced on the 18th that Egypt will host an emergency summit of Arab countries in Cairo on March 4 to discuss developments regarding the Palestinian issue.

Egypt calls for a unified Arab position to counter U.S. President Trump's recent remarks about future plans for the Gaza Strip at the summit. Reports indicate that several Arab countries, including Egypt and Jordan, reiterated that implementing the "two-state solution" remains the only fair solution to the Palestinian issue.

• The 2025 Mobile World Congress will be held in Barcelona, Spain

The 2025 Mobile World Congress (MWC 2025) will officially take place from March 3 to 6 in Barcelona, Spain. This year's exhibition is themed "Converge. Connect. Create." and focuses on several key areas, including 5G technology, the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), as well as cybersecurity and data privacy, showcasing a range of digital products and breakthroughs in communication technology. Several manufacturers, including Huawei, Xiaomi, and Honor, have announced their participation in MWC 2025.

New IPO Opportunities

During the week (March 3-7), there will be 2 new stocks listed, namely YuTian GuanJia and MiXue Group. MiXue Group will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market on March 3. According to the prospectus, as of September 30, 2024, MiXue Group has over 45,000 stores covering China and 11 other countries overseas. Based on the terminal retail sales in 2023, the company is the largest fresh beverage enterprise in China and the fourth largest globally, with market shares of 11.3% in China and 2.2% globally.

Additionally, there will be 2 other new stocks available for subscription during the week, namely Hongjing Optoelectronics and Hengxin Life.

A total of 44 new funds (combined statistics of Class A and Class C) will be issued during the week.

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