U.S. Stock Outlook | Tonight, the Federal Reserve's "preferred inflation indicator" — the PCE price index is coming

1. As of February 28 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.30%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.32%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.27%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.39%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.45%, priced at $69.33 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.26%, priced at $72.64 per barrel.

Market News

US inflation is out of control again! The "preferred indicator" of the Federal Reserve released tonight is not optimistic. The core PCE price index in the US for the fourth quarter increased by 2.7% year-on-year, higher than the initially reported 2.5%. The core PCE for January, to be released on Friday, is expected to increase by 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.7%; the overall PCE for January is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.2%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Prices for a range of indicators, from housing to a box of eggs, have risen again. This is largely related to the supply and demand factors and labor market pressures that led to the initial surge in inflation during the pandemic, while tariffs proposed by President Trump have heightened concerns about further price increases. A series of reports show that price pressures are rising again—from input costs to wage growth to inflation expectations—highlighting the Federal Reserve's intention to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being.

Top global wealthy families rarely collectively reduce holdings, cashing out $7 billion amid market turmoil. Some of the world's richest families have cashed out recent gains through rare sales of publicly traded stocks, totaling about $7 billion. The Italian billionaire Agnelli family disclosed on Wednesday plans to sell approximately €3 billion ($3.1 billion) worth of their shares in Ferrari, partly to help expand their investments beyond the supercar manufacturer. On the same day, a fund manager from the mysterious Lehman family announced the sale of shares in Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., valued at about $2.5 billion. The founding family of Lego applied on Tuesday to sell shares in the office services company ISS A/S worth 1.5 billion Danish kroner ($209 million), and last month, the Rupert family from South Africa took similar actions, cashing out about $1.4 billion The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that the total net worth of these four families is $75 billion.

Federal Reserve officials call for "patience," Harker states that interest rates have not reached "substantial constraint" levels. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that current interest rates have not reached the level of "substantial constraint," and officials should maintain stable rates for a period of time, waiting for evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target level. Mester's message aligns with the views of several other Federal Reserve officials who spoke on Thursday. Although their levels of caution regarding the economic outlook vary, none suggested any intention to cut rates in the near term. Mester also noted that monitoring inflation expectations and other indicators is crucial for assessing whether the financial environment aligns with the Fed's efforts to curb rising prices. Mester stated on Thursday, "I believe there is room for monetary policy to be patient in assessing the future path. This likely means maintaining the federal funds rate stable for a period of time."

Doomsayer Grantham warns of AI bubble: the frenzy will ultimately replay the "railroad tragedy." While artificial intelligence technology is driving humanity toward a more efficient future, long-time doomsayer on Wall Street and co-founder of Boston's GMO, Jeremy Grantham, holds a different view. He believes that, like all world-changing technologies, artificial intelligence will ultimately lead to a collapse and harm investors' interests. In the latest Merryn Talks Money podcast, Grantham compared the current booming AI technology to the railway expansion in 19th century Britain, calling it "one of the most striking failures," despite the influx of capital into this network that has boosted GDP and productivity, "every truly important new technology has a bubble." The 86-year-old Grantham is known for making pessimistic predictions before stock market crashes, but his recent forecasts have missed the mark.

Federal Reserve survey: American workers report productivity gains from using AI. A study conducted jointly by the St. Louis Fed, Vanderbilt University, and Harvard University shows that American workers report saving significant amounts of work time through the use of generative artificial intelligence. The paper found that "after using generative AI, workers' average productivity per hour increased by 33%." Researchers measured the impact of generative AI on work efficiency based on what they believe is the first nationally representative survey of generative AI adoption in the U.S., assessing the extent and intensity of workers' use of the technology. Among respondents who used generative AI last week, 21% reported saving 4 hours or more that week, 20% reported saving 3 hours, 26% reported saving 2 hours, and 33% reported saving 1 hour or less.

Trump's tariffs "boomerang" stir the forex market, dollar index posts largest single-day gain in three weeks. Following U.S. President Trump's confirmation that he will impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico next week, forex traders rushed to buy dollars. This caused the Bloomberg Dollar Index to record its largest gain in three weeks on Thursday, while both the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar fell after Trump announced the news According to reports, on February 27 local time, Trump announced that the United States will proceed with its plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada as scheduled, specifically a 25% tariff on both countries starting March 4. This marks the first significant tariff action during Trump's second presidential term, which could disrupt global supply chains, reignite inflation, and slow economic growth.

Individual Stock News

Dell Technologies (DELL.US) Q4 results mixed, AI server demand outlook remains strong. Dell Technologies reported a 7.2% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $23.9 billion, which fell short of market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.68, better than market expectations. The infrastructure segment's revenue for the fourth quarter was $11.4 billion, below the expected $11.8 billion. Of this, $2.1 billion came from artificial intelligence (AI) servers, while Wall Street's expectation was $2.77 billion. The computer segment's revenue grew 1% to $11.9 billion, with consumer PC sales down 12%, while commercial PC sales increased 5% to $10 billion. Looking ahead, Dell expects adjusted earnings per share of about $9.30 for the fiscal year ending January 2026, with revenue between $101 billion and $105 billion. The market expects earnings per share of $9.24 and revenue of $103 billion.

Due to tariff policies, HP (HPQ.US) Q2 profit guidance falls short of expectations, plans to lay off over a thousand employees. HP reported its first-quarter results. For the first fiscal quarter ending January 31, revenue grew 2.4% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, with commercial PC sales increasing 10%, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $13.4 billion. By business segment, HP's personal systems division saw a 5% year-over-year sales increase to $9.2 billion. However, the printing business declined 2% year-over-year to $4.3 billion. Due to rising component costs and the impact of tariffs on Chinese goods, the company's profit outlook fell below expectations. The company stated in a release on Thursday that adjusted earnings per share for the period ending in April will be between $0.75 and $0.85, while analysts' average estimate was $0.85.

Chemical giant BASF (BASFY.US) expects slight profit increase this year, plans to cut costs by €2.1 billion. BASF expects a slight increase in profits this year, as growth in its agriculture and nutrition sectors helps offset weak demand for chemicals and coatings from the struggling automotive industry. In its earnings report released on Friday, the company stated that its EBITDA profit, excluding special items, is expected to be between €8 billion and €8.4 billion this year, compared to €7.9 billion in 2024. Despite an overall sales increase in North America in the fourth quarter, the company's global sales still saw a slight decline, primarily due to weak economic growth in regions like Europe. BASF expects all sectors, except for chemicals, to contribute to this growth. Meanwhile, its petrochemical business will be affected by rising fixed costs from a new plant scheduled to start production in China in 2030 Amazon (AMZN.US) launches new quantum computing chip Ocelot, adding a strong competitor to the Microsoft and Google camp. Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, announced the launch of a new quantum computing chip named "Ocelot." Previously, tech giants Google (GOOGL.US) and Microsoft (MSFT.US) had launched similar products. Amazon Web Services stated in a blog post that the "Ocelot" chip can reduce the cost of implementing quantum error correction by up to 90% compared to current methods. Quantum chips are used to perform computational tasks, and unlike traditional binary bits (which can be either 1 or 0), quantum chips use quantum bits (qubits) that can be in a state of both 1 and 0 simultaneously, significantly increasing speed in complex calculations such as drug development.

Meta (META.US) plans to launch a paid subscription service for its chatbot Meta AI. According to insiders, Meta Platforms plans to test a paid subscription service for its artificial intelligence chatbot Meta AI, similar to the services offered by OpenAI and Microsoft for accessing premium versions of their chatbots. Insiders stated that the testing will begin in the second quarter of this year, but they expect this subscription service to generate substantial revenue no earlier than next year. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is seeking to strengthen the company's competitive position in the artificial intelligence field against Microsoft (MSFT.US)-backed OpenAI and Google (GOOGL.US). Zuckerberg stated in January that the company plans to spend $65 billion this year to expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Tesla (TSLA.US) plans to offer "autonomous driving" ride-hailing services in California, competing with Uber (UBER.US) and others. Tesla is seeking approval to provide ride-hailing services in California, marking an important step for Musk's company to achieve its goal of transporting paying passengers amid sluggish traditional car sales. According to documents, Tesla applied for a "Transportation Network Carrier License" from the California Public Utilities Commission at the end of last year, which would allow Tesla to own and manage its own fleet. This previously unreported application indicates that Tesla is working to launch a promised ride-hailing business in the short term, opening up new revenue sources and competing with companies like Uber, Lyft (LYFT.US), and Waymo. Musk stated that Tesla plans to launch its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin in June and aims to roll it out in California by the end of this year, although he did not provide specific details.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) stock price plummets over 8%! Large options bet: it will drop another 4%. Concerns about the growth prospects of chipmaker NVIDIA, which is at the center of the artificial intelligence spending boom, led to the stock price dropping over 8% on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in three weeks. Traders are betting that a deeper decline is imminent. Reportedly, a trader bought over 300,000 contracts on Thursday afternoon, betting that NVIDIA's stock price will fall to $115 by March 7, which means a drop of over 4% from Thursday's closing price, a level the stock last reached in mid-September of last year Nvidia's performance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Wednesday, still exceeded market expectations, but was not as stunning as in the past, and the guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 was mixed. Therefore, bearish bets against Nvidia are likely to have exacerbated the stock's weakness on Thursday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:30: U.S. January Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year, U.S. January Personal Spending Month-on-Month, U.S. January Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month.

Beijing time 22:45: U.S. February Chicago PMI.

Next day Beijing time 02:00: U.S. Total Oil Rig Count for the week ending February 28