Policy fog shrouds Wall Street! Morgan Stanley warns that US stocks may face difficulties in March
JPMorgan Chase warned that due to weak economic data, the U.S. stock market may face difficulties in early March, but is expected to rebound later in the spring. Analyst Ilan Benhamou pointed out that policy uncertainty and layoff news will increase macro pressures, making it difficult for the market to break through in the short term. Despite the challenges, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise at the end of March and early April, driven by improved liquidity and corporate resilience
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Ilan Benhamou of JPMorgan Chase stated that due to weak economic data, the U.S. stock market will struggle in early March and then rebound again later in the spring.
The performance of the S&P 500 index has lagged behind international markets this year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, immigration, and layoff policies, as well as federal government policies under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk.
Benhamou, who is engaged in equity derivatives sales, wrote in a report to clients this week: "In the short term, the situation is too chaotic for the stock market to break through; I believe the market is stuck."
Recent news of layoffs from earnings calls and the chain reaction of measures taken by the DOGE team will put more pressure on the macro situation, while consumer survey results are expected to decline, and inflation issues persist.
Benhamou stated that stocks need to reach a level where "technically they appear to be washed out and oversold." "Retail will be exhausted, and CTAs will also be exhausted."
He indicated that the S&P 500 index will then rise again at the end of March and early April. "Liquidity improves, macro excess issues are resolved, earnings continue to show the resilience of U.S. companies, losses stop, and retail returns to the buying ranks."
Currently, Nvidia's earnings have not been harmed, but they have not received significant support either. Tariff risks and chaos still exist, suppressing overall risk sentiment. The seasonal weakness in March makes the stock market outlook challenging in the coming weeks.
Benhamou stated: "In the medium term, I believe the S&P 500 index trend is upward, and U.S. Treasury yields will decline."