Breakfast | Tesla and Bitcoin continue to decline, NVIDIA's performance exceeds expectations

Market Overview

Tariff shocks hit the market, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling during the session, and the S&P and Nasdaq ended a four-day decline at the close. NVIDIA's stock dropped after its earnings report. Apple fell nearly 3%. Super Micro Computer, which avoided delisting by submitting its financial report, rose 12%. AppLovin, targeted by short sellers, fell 12%.

Chinese concept stocks rebounded strongly, with Alibaba rising nearly 4%. The pan-European stock index rose for two consecutive days to a record high.

After Trump mentioned tariffs, U.S. Treasury yields hit a new high for the year; the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar, and euro turned to gains and refreshed daily highs, while the dollar index turned to decline.

Bitcoin fell over $7,000 during the session, dropping below $83,000, hitting a three-month low. Crude oil continued to hit new lows for the year, but the decline slowed. Gold turned to rise after approaching a one-week low.

NVIDIA's Earnings Exceed Expectations, Rising 3.5% After Hours

The company's Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2025 grew 78% year-on-year to $39.3 billion, exceeding market expectations of around $38 billion, compared to $22.1 billion in the same period last year; Q4 data center revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $35.6 billion, above the market expectation of $33.594 billion, compared to $18.4 billion in the same period last year; Q4 net profit for fiscal year 2025 grew 80% to $22.091 billion, surpassing market expectations of $19.611 billion, compared to $12.285 billion in the same period last year.

The company's outlook for the current quarter also exceeded expectations. NVIDIA stated that it expects Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be $43 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $42 billion. This outlook comes amid turbulence in the artificial intelligence industry, with investors concerned about whether data center operators will slow their spending. Derren Nathan from Hargreaves Lansdown said, "NVIDIA has alleviated concerns about its Blackwell chip production and the threat of a slowdown in demand for computing power; both revenue and profit for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, and the guidance for the current quarter exceeded expectations."

NVIDIA generated $11 billion in revenue from Blackwell in Q4, which the company referred to as its "fastest product growth" in history. This indicates that despite a production hiccup last year, both demand and production are healthy.

NVIDIA's Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress stated in a statement, "Large cloud service providers dominated Blackwell sales, accounting for about 50% of our data center revenue."

AppLovin Targeted by Short Sellers, Dropping 23% at One Point

Fuzzy Panda and Culper released short reports on AppLovin, while just a few days ago, The Bear Cave also issued a cautious assessment of the company.

These reports essentially accuse AppLovin of exaggerating the benefits of its AI advertising platform, claiming that the company is actually boosting revenue by "forcing" app installations onto users' phones rather than relying on genuinely effective AI technology advantagesIn the past 12 months, AppLovin's stock price has soared over 500%. The surge in AppLovin's stock last year was concentrated in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by investor enthusiasm for the company's so-called groundbreaking "AI" technology AXON 2.0, as noted by Culper.

This increase coincided with a rotation of funds from semiconductor stocks to AI-related software companies. At the same time, AppLovin's financial report performance exceeded analysts' expectations and replaced Dollar Tree in the Nasdaq 100 index, further driving up the stock price.

AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi criticized recent short reports as "full of inaccuracies and false statements," claiming these reports aim to undermine the company's success and manipulate the stock price. He defended the company's AI advertising model and denied allegations regarding tracking children's data or financial misconduct.

Trump's First Cabinet Meeting of His Second Term: Tariffs, Ukraine, Layoffs, and Oil Trade Discussed

According to CCTV News, Trump stated that most tariffs will continue to be implemented. The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and non-energy goods imported from Canada starting April 2. The U.S. has decided to impose a 25% tariff on the European Union, which will be announced "soon." U.S. stocks retraced early gains, the euro and European ETFs listed in the U.S. rose and then fell back, and oil prices declined.

Trump stated that the U.S. "will cooperate with Ukraine on rare earths," hoping to recover the $350 billion allocated to Ukraine through a mineral agreement. The U.S. will not provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but Europe will.

Trump ordered the termination of oil trade with Venezuela. He stated that he is revoking the "concessions" in the "oil trade agreement dated November 26, 2022."

Is Canada being expelled by the U.S.? According to Global Times, media reports citing an intelligence officer from the "Five Eyes Alliance" stated that U.S. White House trade advisor Navarro is attempting to pressure Canada by kicking it out of the "Five Eyes Alliance" to compel Canada to accept U.S. conditions on trade issues.

"Trump Trade" Leaders Bitcoin and Tesla Continue to Plummet

Tesla fell nearly 4%, and Bitcoin dropped below $83,000.

Analysts pointed out that this marks a shift in market sentiment from the risk appetite following Trump's election victory to a complete reversal of the situation now. Investors are increasingly worried that the tariff threats from the Trump administration will weaken the economy and drive up inflation.

U.S. stocks and digital currencies have suffered consecutive heavy losses, with retail investors significantly withdrawing funds, exacerbating the negative feedback loop for hedge funds. JP Morgan believes this round of correction has not yet stopped, with the current adjustment only completing about one-third or half.

DOGE Erupts in Infighting, 1/3 of Employees Resign Collectively: "Will No Longer Help Musk"

The 21 resigning employees were former members of the U.S. Digital Services Agency, which was subsequently restructured and renamed the U.S. Government Efficiency Department. They stated they refuse to use their skills to help Musk "undermine critical public services" and emphasized that Musk only cares about seizing power to enrich himself further

Rising Inflation Expectations May Force the Federal Reserve to Accelerate Tightening

Recently, American consumers' inflation expectations for the next 12 months have risen to the highest level in a year. If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt more aggressive tightening policies.

Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on the EU

On the 26th, Trump stated that the U.S. has decided to impose a 25% tariff on the EU and will "announce soon," applicable to automobiles and various other goods. Trump also claimed that the EU "takes advantage of the U.S." by refusing to accept American cars and agricultural products for various reasons, resulting in a trade deficit of about "$300 billion" between the U.S. and the EU. When asked whether he would continue to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to progress on border control, Trump said he would not stop the tariffs from taking effect, and the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated at the meeting that the overall tariff actions against various countries will be implemented on April 2