U.S. Stock Outlook | NVIDIA's Earnings Report is Coming After Hours

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.58%, the French CAC40 index rose by 1.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.16%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.06%, priced at $68.85 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.01%, priced at $72.38 per barrel.

Market News

Bank of America warns: S&P 500 shows signs of weakness as it struggles to rise, Trump may initiate market intervention. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated that as European and Chinese stock markets perform well, investors are increasingly "skeptical" about the potential for further gains in the S&P 500 index. "The longer it takes for the S&P index to reach new highs, the harder it becomes, and people's doubts increase accordingly," Hartnett said in an interview. "Europe is working, China is working, and even U.S. bonds are starting to work." The strategist has recommended international stocks over U.S. stocks this year, as he expects volatility in the so-called "seven tech stocks" that have driven the U.S. stock market up since the beginning of 2023. Although he stated that investors are not pessimistic about large tech stocks, these stocks could easily fall if trading "cannot continue to work."

Trump launches $5 million immigration "gold card," funds may be used to reduce deficit. Trump announced that he will initiate a program to provide residency and a pathway to citizenship for foreigners who invest $5 million. While he is cracking down on illegal immigration, this provides a new avenue for legal immigration. Trump stated that the program, referred to as the "gold card," will launch in two weeks, and he believes the U.S. government does not need congressional approval. The full scope of the plan and how it will be implemented remains unclear. Trump said on Tuesday, accompanied by Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, "We will price this card at around $5 million, and it will have green card benefits." Lutnick indicated that this move could replace the existing EB-5 visa, which he dismissed as "utter nonsense."

Trump considers tariffs on copper, New York copper prices surge. Following President Trump's signing of an executive order directing the U.S. Department of Commerce to review potential tariffs on copper, U.S. copper futures prices surged. This move is the latest in a series of measures aimed at imposing tariffs on specific industries to reshape global supply chains. Significant misalignment in copper price differentials has occurred this year due to potential gaps between U.S. and global prices. Comex copper futures rose by as much as 2.4%, marking the largest intraday gain since February 12. Following the news, shares of copper mining companies listed in the U.S. also rose, with the investigation to be conducted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which grants the U.S. president broad powers to impose trade restrictions on grounds of national security Trump also used this power to impose a 25% tariff on two other industrial metals—steel and aluminum—effective in March.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Barr: Monetary policy and financial stability are inseparable. Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, stated in a speech on Tuesday that monetary policy and financial stability are "inseparable." Barr will step down from his role as Vice Chair for Supervision this Friday while continuing to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor. In his final days as Vice Chair for Supervision, he emphasized the importance of strong regulation and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Before Barr's speech on Tuesday, President Trump recently issued an executive order seeking to tighten control over independent agencies, including the Federal Reserve's banking supervision and regulatory work. Although this executive order will not directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, it requires agencies to submit draft regulations for White House review before publication and to consult with the government on priorities and strategies. Barr stated that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has brought "tremendous benefits" to American families.

Has gold peaked? Experts sound the alarm using Buffett's investment principles. Gold prices have soared over the past year. However, experts advise investors to be cautious. One advisor suggested considering Warren Buffett's principle: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Experts say that gold should only make up a small portion of an investment portfolio, possibly only 1% or 2%, or even less, in a diversified portfolio. As of Tuesday, the SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD), which tracks gold prices, has risen about 11% in 2025. The return over the past year has increased by about 42%. Year-to-date, gold futures prices have also risen about 10%, currently up 36% compared to the same period last year. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has risen about 1.5% in 2025 and 17% over the past year.

Individual Stock News

Countdown to a major shakeup in US stocks? NVIDIA (NVDA.US) earnings report may open the "Pandora's box," traders hedge risks in advance. Last week, the ratio of open VIX call options to put options approached the highest level since September 2023, with over 1 million call options traded on Tuesday. Investors are starting to increase bets that volatility will return, as NVIDIA's earnings report, set to be released after US market hours on Wednesday, may just be the beginning of a series of fluctuations. While President Donald Trump's return to the White House and his tariff comments have not yet caused panic among traders, warnings from analysts, from Charlie McElligott at Nomura Holdings to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs, are becoming increasingly loud. The options platform SpotGamma stated, "NVIDIA has the potential to impact the entire stock market. There are many catalysts for volatility to soar in the coming weeks, including tariffs and the deadline for a US government shutdown."

Lowe's (LOW.US) Q4 revenue of $18.6 billion, net profit of $1.1 billion. Lowe's reported Q4 revenue of $18.6 billion, with comparable sales achieving a 0.2% increase. The company's Q4 net profit reached $1.1 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.99, an increase from $1.77 in the fourth quarter of 2023 As of January 31, 2025, Lowe's operates 1,748 stores with a retail space of 195 million square feet. Looking ahead, Lowe's expects earnings per share for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $12.15 and $12.40, while analysts expect $12.48. For the first quarter of 2026, Lowe's anticipates revenue to be between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, while analysts expect $84.77 billion.

Stellantis (STLA.US) reports a significant decline in performance! 2024 profits plummet by 70%, with setbacks in both North American and European markets. European automotive giant Stellantis announced on Wednesday that its profits for 2024 have significantly declined and expects little improvement this year. The automaker is currently working to revive sluggish sales while searching for a new CEO. The multinational group, which owns well-known brands such as Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, Chrysler, and Peugeot, reported a net profit of only €5.5 billion (approximately $5.77 billion) for the entire year of 2024, a staggering 70% drop from €18.6 billion in 2023, and also below analysts' expectations of €6.4 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 5.5%, at the lower end of the company's guidance range, significantly down from 12.8% in the same period last year. Looking ahead, Stellantis expects the adjusted operating profit margin to reach the mid-single digits in 2025.

Recovery in the U.S. market boosts Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD.US) Q4 profits, up 10.1%, exceeding expectations. Anheuser-Busch InBev's organic EBITDA for the fourth quarter grew by 10.1% year-on-year, surpassing the average analyst expectation of 7.95%. Its annual growth of 8.2% also exceeded market expectations and the company's own guidance range. In the U.S. market, thanks to strong sales performances from the two major brands Michelob Ultra and Busch Light, Anheuser-Busch InBev gained market share, with revenue increasing by 0.8%. The company's non-alcoholic beer, Michelob Ultra Zero, launched in January this year, also received a positive market response. However, due to continued weak consumption in the Chinese and Argentine markets, Anheuser-Busch InBev's fourth-quarter sales fell by 1.9%, a decline greater than analysts expected, with an annual decrease of 1.4%. Looking ahead, Anheuser-Busch InBev forecasts that its organic EBITDA growth rate will remain between 4% and 8% by 2025.

Gaotu (GOTU.US) Q4 revenue grows by 82.5% year-on-year, with a net loss of 136 million yuan. Gaotu's Q4 revenue was 1.389 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 82.5% year-on-year; the net loss was 136 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 120 million yuan in the same period last year. Cash revenue was 2.16 billion yuan, up 69.0% year-on-year. The net operating cash inflow was 784 million yuan, an increase of 59.4% year-on-year. For the full year, the company's revenue was 4.554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.8%; the net loss was 1.049 billion yuan, compared to a net loss of 7.3 million yuan in the same period last year. Looking ahead The company expects its revenue for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year to be between 1.408 billion yuan and 1.428 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.7% to 50.8%.

Apple (AAPL.US) faces court scrutiny over 27% "external link tax": price hike or compliance operation? An Apple executive stated in court that the impact on Apple's profits was a key factor in its decision to charge developers a 27% fee to direct customers to make payments outside the App Store, despite the possibility that this move could violate a court order. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers is determining whether Apple has complied with her 2021 order requiring the company to provide more choices for consumers. This lawsuit concludes a long-standing battle over Epic Games Inc.'s allegations that Apple attempted to monopolize the lucrative mobile app market. During hearings that began last year, the judge repeatedly expressed doubts about whether Apple had taken sufficient measures to promote competition.

"Data center surplus" does not exist! Meta (META.US) reportedly preparing a $200 billion mega data center. According to The Information, citing informed sources on Tuesday, Meta Platforms (META.US) is discussing the construction of a new data center campus for its artificial intelligence projects, with potential costs exceeding $200 billion. Reports indicate that Meta executives have informed data center developers that the company is considering building data centers in states such as Louisiana, Wyoming, or Texas, and senior leaders visited potential sites this month. Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, companies across various industries have been striving to incorporate artificial intelligence into their products and services, leading to a surge in AI investments. Meta did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Last month, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated that the company plans to invest $65 billion this year to expand its AI infrastructure.

Despite a "cliff-like" drop in European sales, Tesla (TSLA.US) acquires part of the assets of a bankrupt German parts manufacturer. Despite facing "troubles" in Germany, the American automaker Tesla announced on Tuesday that it will acquire part of the assets of the bankrupt German high-tech parts manufacturer Manz AG, including its factory in Reutlingen, Germany, equipment, and over 300 employees. Manz AG stated that its bankruptcy administrator signed a purchase agreement with Tesla subsidiary Tesla Automation GmbH on Monday. Both parties agreed not to disclose the purchase price, and the completion of the transaction is subject to merger control laws. Manz AG added that approximately 100 employees will lose their jobs and will not be transferred to Tesla Automation GmbH. This transaction marks an expansion of Tesla's operations in Germany, where the company has been operating a Gigafactory near Berlin.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:00: US January building permit month-on-month revision value (%).

Beijing time 23:00: US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending February 21 (10,000 barrels), US January seasonally adjusted new home sales annual total (10,000 units).

Beijing time 23:10: US corporate bond market distress index - overall market average for the four weeks ending February 21.

Beijing time 23:30: US EIA natural gas inventory change for the week ending February 21 (billion cubic feet).

Beijing time 21:30: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech titled "The Past and Present of Inflation."

Next day Beijing time 01:00: 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on economic outlook and the housing market.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Salesforce (CRM.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US), eBay (EBAY.US), C3.ai (AI.US)

Thursday pre-market: Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.US), Zai Lab (ZLAB.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US)