U.S. Stock Outlook | Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan support U.S. stocks, NVIDIA's earnings report may open the "Pandora's Box"

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of February 24 (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.74%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.48%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.12%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.09%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.07%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.14%, priced at $70.50 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.16%, priced at $74.17 per barrel.

Market News

Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan support U.S. stocks, believing that although the S&P 500 index will underperform its international peers in 2025, the strong earnings outlook and trend of capital outflows from the U.S. stock market will not last. Morgan Stanley's view: Strategist Michael Wilson believes the S&P 500 index is the "highest quality index" with the "best earnings growth prospects." He expects capital to flow back into U.S. stocks, stating that the current trend of capital outflows is unsustainable. JP Morgan's view: Strategist Mislav Matejka believes that despite the gloomy outlook for large tech stocks, the earnings gap between the U.S. and other countries remains significant, and he does not recommend reducing holdings in U.S. stocks.

This week's market focus: Can Nvidia (NVDA.US) earnings revive the "AI faith" in U.S. stocks? The January PCE data is expected to ease inflation concerns. Due to a series of economic data raising concerns about U.S. economic growth falling short of expectations and persistent inflation, U.S. stocks performed poorly over the past week. The S&P 500 index fell approximately 1.7% last week, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones indices saw declines of about 2% and nearly 3%, respectively. In the coming week, Nvidia's earnings report is expected to make headlines. Earnings reports from Home Depot (HD.US), Lowe's (LOW.US), and Salesforce (CRM.US) will also be in focus. In terms of economic data, investors will closely watch the U.S. January PCE price index data to be released on Friday, as this inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will reveal the inflation situation. Meanwhile, the revised annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the fourth quarter, to be released on Thursday, will also attract market attention.

Countdown to a major shock in U.S. stocks? Nvidia's (NVDA.US) earnings report may open the "Pandora's box," and traders are hedging risks in advance. Last Friday, U.S. stocks experienced the largest sell-off in two months, breaking the surface calm of the market Last week, the ratio of open VIX call options to put options approached the highest level since September 2023, with over 1 million call options changing hands on Tuesday. Investors are starting to increase their bets on a resurgence of volatility, as the earnings report from NVIDIA, set to be released after U.S. market hours on Wednesday, may just be the beginning of a series of fluctuations. While U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his tariff comments have not yet caused panic among traders, warnings from analysts, ranging from Charlie McElligott at Nomura Holdings to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs, are growing louder.

U.S. stock market "animal spirits" go global! European and Asian stocks rise strongly, experts predict: the carnival has just begun. The "animal spirits" that have driven the U.S. stock market surge over the past two years are now spreading globally—some market professionals suggest that this trend may just be beginning. After a cumulative surge of over 50% in 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 index has remained basically flat since Donald Trump took office. Hot trading is now shifting overseas, with investors flocking to European and Asian stock markets, ignoring threats from tariffs, trade wars, and military conflicts. Since Trump took office, the STOXX Europe 600 index has risen by 5.8%, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index has soared by 18%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has only increased by 0.3% during the same period, with a single-day drop of 1.7% last Friday further dragging down its performance.

Bank of America warns: the "turnaround" of U.S. defensive stocks signals that the good times for the U.S. economy may not last long. Bank of America stated last Friday that the recent performance of defensive consumer staples and healthcare stocks has outperformed other sectors of the U.S. stock market, which is a warning signal for the U.S. economy. Data shows that the S&P 500 index fell by 0.6% over the past month, while consumer staples (XLP) and healthcare (XLV) sectors rose by 6.8% and 2.6%, respectively, during the same period. These two categories of stocks have been the best performers in the S&P 500 index over the past month. Bank of America noted that the strong performance of defensive and bond-sensitive stocks is beginning to indicate a slowdown in economic activity, and this economic shift could trigger a "disruption" in the stock market bull run. The bank's strategists pointed out risks such as "unexpected slowdown in real estate growth, weakening wealth effect and job growth, inflation impacting consumer confidence, and the U.S. government falling into recession."

U.S. consumer inflation expectations surge, but Federal Reserve's Goolsbee downplays its impact. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was unimpressed by a report released last week showing that consumer inflation expectations for the future have risen. On Sunday, Goolsbee said in an interview that the number "is not a very ideal number." He stated, "But this is just one month of data. You need at least two or three months of data to make it count."

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) Robotaxi's first battle in Austin, competing alongside Waymo and Uber (UBER.US). Tesla will launch its first autonomous Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. The city is currently home to the company's headquarters and is seen as an ideal choice for Tesla, as autonomous vehicles in Texas only need to be registered and insured to operate on public roads No special license is required. Tesla's autonomous taxi service is characterized by the use of the company's "driverless supervision" fully autonomous driving technology (FSD) to control the vehicles. Initially, the autonomous taxi fleet will consist of Tesla's own vehicles, likely the Model 3 and Model Y. Passengers will book autonomous driving services through a mobile application. The booked autonomous taxis will be able to stop in designated areas for passenger pick-up.

Private equity giant KKR (KKR.US) spends $400 million to acquire a majority stake in Indian cancer care provider HCG. Private equity giant KKR (KKR.US) will acquire a majority stake in India's Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd. (referred to as HCG) from CVC Capital Partners for $400 million, becoming the largest shareholder and sole operator of this Indian cancer care provider. HCG stated in a statement to the exchange last Sunday evening that KKR will acquire up to 54% of the company's shares from CVC at a price of 445 rupees per share. According to the statement, KKR will also publicly purchase more shares from public shareholders. The statement added that this transaction could allow KKR to hold up to 77% of HCG shares, thereby granting this private equity firm full control over HCG's operations in India.

Signs of a cooling AI boom? Microsoft's (MSFT.US) sudden cancellation of data center leases raises market concerns. Investment bank TD Cowen stated that Microsoft has begun canceling leases for a large number of data centers in the United States, a move that may reflect its concerns about whether long-term AI computing demand exceeds its construction capacity. TD Cowen reported that OpenAI's largest supporter has canceled leases totaling "hundreds of megawatts" of capacity, based on channel checks or inquiries with supply chain providers. TD Cowen noted that Microsoft has also stopped so-called qualification statement conversions, which are agreements that typically convert into formal leases. TD Cowen wrote that this is a strategy previously employed by competitors like Meta Platforms (META.US) when deciding to cut capital expenditures.

Apple (AAPL.US) plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years and hire 20,000 employees. Apple announced plans to spend and invest over $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. The tech company also plans to hire approximately 20,000 employees over the next four years, with the vast majority focused on research and development, silicon engineering, software development, and artificial intelligence and machine learning. As part of this plan, the iPhone manufacturer and its partners will open a new advanced manufacturing facility in Houston to produce servers supporting Apple Intelligence. Apple stated that this $500 billion commitment includes collaborations with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states, direct employment, Apple Intelligence infrastructure and data centers, corporate facilities, and Apple TV+ productions in 20 states The company will also double its U.S. advanced manufacturing fund from $5 billion to $10 billion, establish a college in Michigan to train the next generation of American manufacturers, and increase investment in R&D in the U.S. A few weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump had just imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Many of Apple's products are assembled in China.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:30: U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index change.

Beijing time 23:30: U.S. February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: Zoom (ZM.US), Agora (API.US)

Tuesday pre-market: Home Depot (HD.US), Yuchai International (CYD.US)