Key Three Questions of Tech Growth: Is AI trading overheated? Is it a case of speculative valuation or systematic revaluation? How will it unfold in the future?

The Chinese stock market has recently been swept by a strong wave of technology. Driven by Alibaba's better-than-expected capital expenditures, technology stocks have surged. Small and mid-cap stocks have performed impressively, with industries related to AI and robotics, such as computers, seeing astonishing gains.

Faced with such a booming market, investors can't help but ask: Has this round of AI trading become overheated? Is it merely a valuation speculation, or a systematic re-evaluation at the industrial level? In the future, how will this wave of technology unfold?

In a report on February 24, Guosen Securities analyst Chen Kaichang stated, the current trading heat in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has only just broken historical highs for the first time, and there has not yet been a systematic rise in the heat center, so it is too early to assert that it is "overheated."

More importantly, this round of trading is not simply about "pulling valuations," but rather a "major re-evaluation" brought about by AI + robotics at the industrial level. The emergence of the DeepSeek model marks the realization of computational power equality for domestic large models, driving explosive growth in downstream applications. This is not only a technological advancement but also a transformation in production methods.

Is it overheated? The data speaks

The performance of the A-share market in the past week can be described as "fire and ice." On one hand, traditional blue-chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have performed mediocrely; on the other hand, technology stocks represented by the STAR 50 have soared, with a weekly increase of up to 7.07%.

Behind this is the joint performance of the two major concepts of AI and robotics. Driven by industrial trends and core catalysts, leading companies in related industries have driven marginal assets, achieving an overall rise.

In response to market concerns about "overheating," Guosen Securities analysts believe it is too early to discuss this.

First, from the perspective of thematic capacity, AI and robotics belong to large-capacity themes, which have diffusion and echelon effects, so the increase in trading volume and turnover rate does not necessarily mean that sentiment is overheated.

For AI and robotics, the current core targets have not shown signs of sentiment cooling, and the thematic capacity is larger, allowing for diffusion and a relatively complete echelon.

Second, from the perspective of the sentiment cycle, indicators such as the number of stocks hitting the daily limit and the promotion rate show that the technology market has not ended. Observing the thematic itself using the limit-up rate, promotion rate, and overall market conditions, the current reserves of stocks in the AI and robotics sectors that have achieved consecutive limit-ups are relatively sufficient. The consecutive limit-up as a central hub for trading sentiment supports the theme reaching new highs, indicating that the technology market has not ended.

Finally, compared to historical "Mao" and "Ning" markets, the current trading heat in the TMT sector has only just broken historical highs for the first time, and there has not yet been a systematic rise in the heat center.

Referring to history, the double peak in trading volume proportion in August 2021 was the sign of overheating in the Ning combination. Throughout the process, the Ning combination experienced two systematic rises in trading heat after breaking new highs, creating excess returns.

"Great Revaluation" Era: How AI Changes the Game Rules?

Guoxin Securities believes that the core driving force of this market is the "great revaluation" brought by AI + robots at the industrial level.

The emergence of the DeepSeek model has broken the monopoly of foreign large models and achieved equal access to computing power. This not only lowers the threshold for AI applications but also promotes explosive growth in downstream applications.

From the perspective of the DCF model (Discounted Cash Flow model), large models can optimize the short-term cash flow structure of enterprises, enhance customer retention rates, and reduce product iteration costs, thereby increasing enterprise value.

From the perspective of production functions, AI technology has brought about the fission of technological multipliers, the evolution of capital forms, and the reconstruction of labor value, fundamentally changing traditional production methods.

Regarding future investment strategies, Guoxin Securities believes that one should "select stars monthly and stick to the leaders."

Analysts state that in industries with high barriers to entry and where leading enterprises occupy stable market shares, one should buy in when valuations are reasonable and hold long-term.

Analysts also emphasize the importance of policies such as "deepening central enterprise AI+", "computing power foundation unveiling", and "humanoid robot special projects", and suggest that investors pay attention to beneficiaries such as operators, IDC service providers, complete vehicle manufacturers, parts manufacturers, and the computing power industry chain.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk