Breakfast | The "Pinduoduo" of the milk tea industry, MIXUE Ice City, is going public, and the 14th meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress is being held

Market Overview Last Friday

Last Friday, U.S. data ignited market concerns about the economy, with all three major U.S. stock indices posting their largest declines in two months, the Nasdaq falling over 2%, and the Dow erasing its gains since Trump took office. Nvidia dropped over 4%. Walmart's stock fell nearly 9% in the two days following its earnings report.

The China concept index rose for six consecutive weeks, with Alibaba up nearly 6% and a cumulative increase of 14% in the two days after its earnings report. The pan-European stock index rose for nine consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly gain in nearly a year.

Following the U.S. PMI data, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, reaching a two-week low; the U.S. dollar index approached a two-month low. The Japanese yen hit a two-month high for two consecutive days, surging 2% this week. The offshore yuan fell over 200 points during the day, breaching 7.25. Bitcoin briefly approached the $100,000 mark before dropping over $4,000.

Crude oil plummeted nearly 3%, marking the largest daily decline in three months, with U.S. oil falling for five consecutive weeks. Gold fell from record highs but has risen for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly gain in over four years.

In the Asian session, AH technology stocks surged, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 6%, and Alibaba soaring over 14%, driving computing power.

The Most Severe Theft in Cryptocurrency History

Hackers stole nearly $1.5 billion from Bybit. The hackers gained control of an offline Ethereum wallet belonging to Bybit, and the funds were transferred to a new address through suspicious transactions and sold. The stolen Ethereum from the Bybit platform accounted for about 9% of its total assets. As a result, both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell.

Warren Buffett's Shareholder Letter: Cash Hits Record High

In his latest annual letter to shareholders, Buffett paused his usual optimistic tone and patriotic rhetoric, instead warning that the American journey is not always beautiful, and that "con artists and salesmen" will "exploit those who mistakenly trust them."

Buffett wrote:

"If 'fiscal foolishness' prevails, the value of paper money will evaporate... In some countries, this reckless behavior has become a habit; in the brief history of our country, the U.S. has also come close to this edge, and fixed coupon bonds cannot prevent currency from spiraling out of control."

Four years ago, in his letter to shareholders, Buffett famously said: Never bet against America.

Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway released its fourth-quarter earnings report, with insurance profits soaring, driving operating profits up 71%. While continuing to reduce stock holdings, cash reserves reached a record $334.2 billion, nearly double that of the same period last year, accounting for 53% of the company's net assets.

Cash reserves also exceeded Berkshire's current investments in tradable stocks, which stand at $270 billion. Berkshire has sold stocks for nine consecutive quarters, and a year ago, Berkshire's stock holdings were nearly twice that of U.S. Treasury securities.

Notably, as Buffett exits the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market has reached historical highs and valuations. According to the so-called "Buffett Indicator," which compares the value of the U.S. stock market to the size of the U.S. annual GDP, stocks have never been as expensive as they are now

NVIDIA Earnings Report Coming This Wednesday

The AI industry is facing another critical moment as NVIDIA's earnings report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Over the past few years, NVIDIA's earnings reports have been a focal point for the market. Will this report shake the market again?

On February 26, after the U.S. stock market closes, NVIDIA will announce its fourth-quarter earnings. Morgan Stanley expects quarterly revenue to be $41 billion, slightly below the market consensus and buy-side expectations of $42 billion. The market generally anticipates a significant slowdown in revenue growth to 73%.

This growth rate is a noticeable decline compared to the rapid growth in 2023 and 2024. NVIDIA experienced explosive growth for the first time in 2023 due to the AI boom, with revenue continuously rising and consistently exceeding market expectations. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, its sales growth rate peaked at 265%.

Key points of focus for this earnings report include: the growth of AI data center revenue, delays in the Blackwell GB200, the transition of NVIDIA chips, and perspectives on AI application deployment.

Although NVIDIA is no longer "the sole leader," it still occupies a core position in the AI field, and its earnings report will have a significant impact on the entire AI industry. Morgan Stanley predicts that if NVIDIA's revenue exceeds expectations, prices could rise by 3-15%, while bearish scenarios imply a 5-10% downside risk.

DeepSeek Hosts "Open Source Week": Achieving True Open Source with Open Source Code

DeepSeek announced that over the next week, it will successively open source five code repositories, unlocking new content daily to further share new progress. DeepSeek also stated that the modules for current online services have been tested and are fully deployed, ready for production environments.

Investment Banks' Views on U.S. Stocks and Bonds

Hedge fund mogul Cohen: Trump's tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and DOGE spending cuts will harm the U.S. economy, and U.S. stocks may correct. He expects U.S. economic growth to slow from 2.5% to 1.5% in the second half of this year, stating, "We have already passed the best earnings phase, so a significant market adjustment would not surprise me."

Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the current rise in U.S. interest rates, overvalued market conditions, and massive government debt could trigger a major crisis, suggesting that U.S. Treasury bonds may need restructuring and advising investors to focus on physical assets. Historical cyclical crises are inevitable, occurring every three to four generations, and we are in a period that may undergo significant changes.

Fourteenth Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Fourteenth National People's Congress

According to People’s Daily, the 38th Chairman Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Fourteenth National People's Congress was held on the afternoon of the 17th at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Chairman Zhao Leji presided over the meeting. The meeting decided that the Fourteenth National People's Congress Standing Committee's Fourteenth Meeting will be held in Beijing from February 24 to 25An important task of the 14th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress is to prepare for the upcoming 3rd session of the 14th National People's Congress. The Chairman's meeting suggested that the 14th meeting of the Standing Committee review the draft work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, review the proposal from the Chairman's meeting regarding the agenda draft for the 3rd session of the 14th National People's Congress, the proposal regarding the draft list of the presidium and secretary-general for the 3rd session of the 14th National People's Congress, and the proposal regarding the draft list of attendees for the 3rd session of the 14th National People's Congress.

The agenda suggested by the Chairman's meeting for the 14th meeting of the Standing Committee also includes: reviewing the draft law on promoting the private economy, reviewing the proposal from the State Council regarding the draft amendment to the Civil Aviation Law, reviewing the report from the Qualification Review Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress regarding the qualifications of individual representatives and related appointment and dismissal proposals, etc.

Historical Performance Patterns of Hang Seng Technology After a Single-Day Increase of 6%+

On February 21, the Hong Kong stock market opened high and rose further, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology closing up 3.99% and 6.53%, respectively. Prior to this, there had been a total of 26 instances in history where Hang Seng Technology rose more than 6% in a single day, of which 20 occurred during a declining market as a rebound or at the initial stage of a market bottom (more frequently after 2022), and 6 occurred during an accelerating phase in an upward market. Based on historical experience, after a surge of more than 6% in an accelerating phase, the probability of a decline in the following 1-2 weeks is higher, while there is no obvious pattern in the performance over a one-month period.

"Pinduoduo" of the Milk Tea Industry, MIXUE GROUP (02097) is in the IPO Process

MIXUE Ice City is currently in the process of going public and will be listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 3. This news has hit the tea beverage market like a bombshell, igniting excitement among investors.

According to official disclosures from MIXUE Ice City, this IPO plans to issue 17,059,900 shares, with an offering price of HKD 202.5 per share. Based on this pricing, the estimated total market capitalization of MIXUE Ice City after listing will exceed HKD 76.3 billion. This figure not only far exceeds the combined market capitalization of previously listed Nayuki, Cha Bai Dao, and Gu Ming, but it is also likely to become the largest listing case in the domestic tea beverage industry.

As a leader in the tea beverage sector, the listing of MIXUE Ice City will undoubtedly attract widespread attention. To ensure a smooth listing, MIXUE Ice City has also put in significant effort. Its lineup of "cornerstone investors" is strong, with Hillhouse Capital, Sequoia China, Boyu Capital, M&G, and Meituan Longzhu collectively subscribing approximately HKD 1.558 billion, providing solid support for MIXUE Ice City's path to listing