This week's key agenda: NVIDIA earnings report, second round of talks between Russia and the U.S., and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicators

From February 24 to March 2, a summary of major financial events for the week, all in Beijing time:

Key focus for the week: The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 14th meeting, NVIDIA's earnings report is coming, pay attention to the growth of AI data center revenue, the second round of talks between Russia and the United States is imminent, and monitor the situation of the talks. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, core PCE, is expected to cool to a 7-month low.

In addition, China's February PMI, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held, Xiaomi's smartphone launch event, DeepSeek's "Open Source Week" event, and Apple's 2025 shareholder meeting will take place.

The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 14th Meeting

According to People's Daily, the 38th Chairman's meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee was held on the afternoon of the 17th at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Chairman Zhao Leji presided over the meeting. The meeting decided that the 14th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee would be held in Beijing from February 24 to 25.

An important task of the 14th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee is to prepare for the upcoming third meeting of the 14th National People's Congress. The Chairman's meeting suggested that the Standing Committee's 14th meeting review the draft work report of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, review the proposal for the agenda of the third meeting of the 14th National People's Congress, the proposal for the list of the presidium and secretary-general of the third meeting of the 14th National People's Congress, and the proposal for the list of attendees at the third meeting of the 14th National People's Congress.

The agenda suggested by the Chairman's meeting for the Standing Committee's 14th meeting also includes: reviewing the draft law on promoting the private economy, reviewing the proposal from the State Council to revise the Civil Aviation Law, and reviewing the report on the qualifications of individual representatives from the National People's Congress Standing Committee's Qualification Review Committee and related appointment and removal proposals.

NVIDIA Earnings Report

The AI industry is entering another critical moment, with NVIDIA's earnings report set to be released after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. NVIDIA's earnings reports have been a focal point for the market over the past few years; will this report once again shake the market?

After the U.S. stock market closes on February 26, NVIDIA will announce its fourth-quarter earnings, and Morgan Stanley expects quarterly revenue to be $41 billion, slightly below the market consensus and buy-side expectations of $42 billion. The market generally expects the revenue growth rate to slow significantly to 73%.

This growth rate is a noticeable decline compared to the rapid growth in 2023 and 2024. NVIDIA experienced explosive growth for the first time in 2023 due to the AI boom, with revenue continuously rising and consistently exceeding market expectations, reaching a peak sales growth rate of 265% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.

Key points of this earnings report include: growth of AI data center revenue, delays in Blackwell GB200, the transition of NVIDIA chips, and views on AI application deployment.

Although NVIDIA is no longer "the sole leader," it still occupies a core position in the AI field, and its earnings report will have a significant impact on the entire AI industry. Morgan Stanley predicts that if NVIDIA's revenue exceeds expectations, prices could rise by 3-15%, while bearish scenarios imply a 5-10% downside risk

Second Round of Talks Between Russia and the United States

Recently, the game between the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine has become the focus of the market. The second round of talks between Russian and American representatives will be held in Riyadh, with media reports indicating it will take place on Tuesday.

The first phase of US-Russia negotiations has concluded. According to previous reports from Xinhua News Agency, Russian presidential assistant Ushakov stated after the meeting that the talks were going "well," and both sides engaged in serious dialogue on all topics.

It is said that the US-Russia peace plan consists of three phases, which may include: a ceasefire agreement, new elections in Ukraine, and the signing of a peace agreement. The US side stated that the consensus reached includes: both sides agreeing to establish a bilateral relationship consultation mechanism aimed at normalizing the operation of diplomatic missions; appointing their respective senior teams to work towards ending the Ukraine conflict as soon as possible; agreeing to lay the foundation for cooperation on geopolitical interests, economics, and investment after the conflict ends; and committing to maintaining contact to advance the negotiation process.

CCTV News reported on Sunday that on the 22nd local time, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated that President Trump and his team are focused on continuing negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Trump is confident that negotiations can be completed this week.

In addition, the Ukrainian side has received the new version of the mineral resources agreement text proposed by the US. A Ukrainian government expert group will be launched next week to work towards reaching a mineral agreement with the US in exchange for support from the US side.

According to CCTV News, on February 23rd local time, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, stated that they are currently reaching an agreement with the US on the text of the mineral agreement document, which may be signed in the near future. Podolyak indicated that the agreement is being widely discussed at various levels and a working group has been established. He also pointed out that Ukraine hopes the agreement will include provisions regarding security guarantees and fair profit distribution.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Indicator

This week, the Fed's most preferred inflation indicator—core PCE data—will be released, with the market expecting it to drop to a seven-month low. However, overall progress in curbing inflationary pressures has been slow, which will keep policymakers cautious about further rate cuts.

The US Department of Commerce will release data on Friday, with the market expecting the year-on-year PCE price index for January to slow by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%, and core PCE to slow by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, both still some distance from the central bank's 2% target. The latest released minutes from the Fed meeting show that officials tend to maintain interest rates unchanged.

Bloomberg economists expect personal consumption data to show a contraction in personal spending for January, while the core PCE inflation rate may slow year-on-year to 2.6%. The "Trump trade" betting on rising inflation may appear increasingly unattractive.

According to Bloomberg Economic Research, the decline may stem from relatively mild categories in separate wholesale inflation data, which will affect personal consumption expenditures (PCE). However, strong growth components in the consumer price index will keep personal consumption expenditures (PCE) above the Fed's 2% target. This is also a significant reason why Fed officials tend to temporarily maintain interest rates unchanged.

Additionally, Fed Vice Chairman Barr is preparing to step down at the end of the month, and that week he will give his last speech as vice chairman, while Richmond Fed President Barkin and Cleveland Fed President Mester will also make comments At the same time as the release of the personal consumption expenditure report, the U.S. Department of Commerce will also announce the latest goods trade balance data. In December, this data expanded to a record level and will become a focus during President Trump's second term. Other data to be released in the coming week includes new home sales, consumer confidence, and the revised report on real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• China's February PMI

On Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release data including the official manufacturing PMI for February. China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1, returning to the contraction zone. The official non-manufacturing PMI for January was 50.2, down from 52.2. The official composite PMI for January was 50.1, down from 52.2.

• G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held in Cape Town, South Africa, from February 26 to 27. This week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that she would be absent from the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Cape Town next week, with a senior Treasury official attending in her place.

• Xiaomi Smartphone Launch Event

On the evening of February 22, Lu Weibing, partner and president of Xiaomi Group, president of the mobile phone division, and general manager of the Xiaomi brand, will start a live stream revealing the Xiaomi 15 Ultra. It is reported that the new product will be officially launched next week, with media revealing the date as February 26.

During the live stream, Lu Weibing stated that "the imaging of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra can be summarized as one emperor and one empress." The "emperor" refers to the 1-inch ultra-large main camera, aiming to achieve the imaging ceiling for 1-inch main cameras; the "empress" refers to the 200-megapixel periscope telephoto lens, which aims to solve the common low-light telephoto imaging problems faced by the industry.

Previously, Xiaomi Group CMO Xu Fei revealed on Weibo that in addition to the highly anticipated smartphone and Xiaomi's first SUV YU7, there will also be central air conditioning, dual-system refrigerators, washing and drying sets, dehumidifiers, Xiao Ai speakers, and two new REDMI products.

Additionally, noteworthy is the Xiaomi AI glasses. Wall Street Journal previously reported that media exposure of the network access information indicates that the Xiaomi glasses are expected to be equipped with a Micro OLED waveguide display, weighing only 80g, making them nearly imperceptible when worn.

Apple's 2025 Shareholders Meeting to be Held

Apple's 2025 shareholders meeting will be held at 8:00 AM (U.S. time) on February 25 (Tuesday). At this meeting, shareholders will vote to re-elect the board of directors, approve executive compensation, and approve Ernst & Young as Apple's public accounting firm, as well as vote on shareholder proposals.

• DeepSeek "Open Source Week" Event

DeepSeek officially announced that it will begin open sourcing, achieving true open source for its source code. In the coming week, an open source week event will be held, during which five code repositories will be gradually opened, with new content unlocked daily to further share new progress. DeepSeek also stated that the modules for the current online services have been tested and are fully deployed, ready for production environment use

New Share Subscription Opportunities

Mixue Group (02097)