AI trading reaches a critical moment: Will next week's NVIDIA earnings report shake the market?

The AI industry is 迎来 another critical moment, with NVIDIA's earnings report set to be released after the U.S. stock market closes next Wednesday. Over the past few years, NVIDIA's earnings reports have been a focal point for the market. Will this earnings report once again shake the market?

On February 26th, after the U.S. stock market closes, NVIDIA will announce its fourth-quarter earnings report. Morgan Stanley expects quarterly revenue to be $41 billion, slightly below the market consensus and buy-side expectations of $42 billion. The market generally anticipates a significant slowdown in revenue growth to 73%.

This growth rate is a noticeable decline compared to the rapid growth in 2023 and 2024. NVIDIA experienced explosive growth for the first time in 2023 due to the AI boom, with revenue continuously climbing and consistently exceeding market expectations. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, its sales growth rate peaked at 265%.

Key points of focus for this earnings report include: the growth of AI data center revenue, the delay of the Blackwell GB200, the transition of NVIDIA chips, and perspectives on AI application deployment.

Although NVIDIA is no longer "the only player," it still occupies a core position in the AI field, and its earnings report will have a significant impact on the entire AI industry. Morgan Stanley predicts that if NVIDIA's revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price could rise by 3-15%, while bearish scenarios imply a downside risk of 5-10%.

What to focus on in this earnings report?

Currently, the demand for AI chips remains strong, and NVIDIA's earnings outlook is more complex compared to previous quarters. The key lies in whether market expectations align with NVIDIA's performance guidance.

Analysts believe that even if NVIDIA's performance exceeds expectations, its stock price may not necessarily rise. Previously, due to market concerns about whether NVIDIA's supply could meet demand, its stock price experienced fluctuations after earnings reports. For example, after last quarter's earnings report, NVIDIA's stock price only rose by 0.5%; in the quarter before that, the stock price even fell by 6.3%.

Attention is on the growth of AI data center revenue. NVIDIA has consistently reported performance exceeding expectations and has provided quarterly guidance in advance. NVIDIA's top customers (hyperscale data centers) have raised their spending expectations on AI, indicating that AI revenue will continue to grow.

At the same time, NVIDIA is currently facing a product transition (from Hopper to Blackwell), and issues related to product transition and supply chains may impact NVIDIA's performance, but overall demand and revenue growth remain strong.

Regarding gross margins, analysts expect that with the increased shipment of the Blackwell series, which has higher costs and lower yields, NVIDIA's gross margin may see a slight decline compared to the previous quarter.

Additionally, concerns about the delay of the Blackwell GB200 are also a market focus. Although most investors are informed, the delay will affect the downstream system assembly supply chain. Currently, demand and revenue growth still appear strong.

Will the market be shaken again by NVIDIA?

In the past, NVIDIA has been one of the most important stocks in the S&P 500 index, with its stock performance closely linked to AI trading trends. Since the advent of ChatGPT, AI trading has been the dominant trend in the market, and NVIDIA's strong performance has also driven the rise of the S&P 500 indexBut now, market breadth has finally begun to expand. According to Yahoo Finance analyst Jared Blikre's analysis, NVIDIA's contribution to the S&P 500 index's increase this year is about 5%, far lower than the 20% in 2024.

Despite the changing market landscape, NVIDIA, as the second-largest company by market capitalization globally, will have a significant impact on the entire AI industry, including TSMC, SK Hynix, and others.

Mark Newton from Fundstrat stated:

NVIDIA remains important. We learned from the earnings calls of Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet that they all mentioned NVIDIA, indicating that they are making substantial capital expenditures and that a lot of funds are flowing to NVIDIA. Therefore, the market demand for NVIDIA remains very high, and I believe this company and its stock will not disappear anytime soon