Goldman Sachs Robot Deep Research (1): Is the Market Too Optimistic?

Source: Hard AI

Author: Zhu Xueying

As the market revels in the unexpected progress of humanoid robots, Goldman Sachs has poured cold water on the situation, warning that the current market performance may have already overdrawn the growth potential for the next few years.

Humanoid Robot Stocks Surge 48% This Year, But Market Expectations Are "Five Years Ahead" of Goldman Sachs' Model

In a research report released on February 20, Goldman Sachs stated that the market is extremely optimistic about the humanoid robot industry, with the humanoid robot supply chain stocks they cover averaging a 48% increase so far this year. Goldman Sachs believes this is based on the market potentially pricing the stock of related supply chain companies according to a shipment volume of 500,000 units by 2027 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times.

However, according to Goldman Sachs' model, the global shipment volume of humanoid robots is expected to be 76,000 units by 2027, far below the market's general expectation of 500,000 units by 2027. Goldman Sachs believes that the global shipment volume of humanoid robots may not reach 502,000 units until 2032.

The market believes that given the enormous potential of humanoid robots in manufacturing, services, and elderly care, as long as the functions and costs meet market demands, the global shipment volume will ultimately reach 1 million units.

However, Goldman Sachs expects that the timeline for achieving 1 million units will be later. In the baseline scenario, it is expected to be achieved between 2034-2035, in the optimistic scenario it will be by 2030-2031, and in the most optimistic scenario, it will be by 2028-2029.

The "Dual Path" of Humanoid Robot Company Valuation

Goldman Sachs believes that the current valuation method for humanoid robot supply chain stocks in the market is "core business valuation + humanoid robot valuation."

The core business valuation refers to the company's existing business opportunities, market share, and profit margins. The other part includes the additional growth that the company may achieve through robot products, which depends on several factors, such as assumptions about global humanoid robot shipment volumes, the company's market share, product net profit margins, and forward price-to-earnings ratios.

However, these potential value-added opportunities also carry risks. If the technological progress of humanoid robots does not meet expectations, these value-added expectations may fall through. For example, the foundational models and hardware bottlenecks of humanoid robots will directly affect the market's expectations for these companies, thereby impacting stock valuations. Looking back at the early explosive phase of technologies like electric vehicles, some stocks had price-to-earnings ratios as high as 120 times