Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Breaking the $2,950 Barrier! International Gold Prices Hit New Highs, Multiple Factors Support Continued Rise in Gold Prices (Including Concept Stocks)

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on February 20th, the spot gold price quickly rose after opening in the European trading session, breaking through the $2,950/ounce mark, and as of the time of writing, it was reported at $2,954.94/ounce, setting a new historical high. CITIC Securities analyst Zhou Junzhi analyzed that in the short term, before the clarity of tariffs, the fluctuation of gold futures and spot premiums may not stabilize completely, and cross-market arbitrage may still support gold prices. In the future, gold prices may shift from a favorable period to a volatile period. Related stocks: Zijin Mining (02899), SD-GOLD (01787), LINGBAO GOLD (03330).

Since the beginning of 2025, precious metal prices have shown a significant upward trend, with overall price levels skyrocketing and the short-term volatility of precious metal prices surging, among which gold prices have risen the most significantly. The London spot gold price and New York futures gold price have repeatedly set new historical high records since the beginning of 2025.

Recently, gold has surged again, driven by multiple factors. On the macro front, the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting indicated agreement to keep the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%. They also expressed a desire to see inflation rates decline further before lowering rates. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announced a 25 basis point rate cut, while the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike during this period. The "mismatch" in the frequency of rate cuts by European and American central banks has led to adjustments in the interest rate differentials of direct counterpart currencies, thereby affecting dollar assets and strengthening the overall dollar exchange rate.

The new U.S. government, while promoting a strong dollar through monetary and fiscal policies, is also continuously adjusting expectations for tariff policies towards various foreign economies, constantly "monitoring" the impact of tariff policy expectations and a series of other tariff adjustment policies, further supporting precious metal prices, with the performance of dollar exchange rates and other assets also being extremely strong.

In addition, market concerns about the U.S. potentially imposing tariffs on gold imports have been rising, prompting large-scale arbitrage funds to intervene, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the London spot gold price has consistently been about $20/ounce lower than the New York market, once exceeding $70/ounce at the end of January, far exceeding normal arbitrage costs.

At the same time, COMEX gold inventories have continued to rise since the end of 2024. According to Wind statistics, since November 7, 2024, COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) gold inventories have rapidly increased from about 17.2 million troy ounces in early November 2024 to 34.6 million troy ounces in early February 2025, an increase of over 101% in three months. Due to a large amount of gold being shipped to the U.S., a shortage has occurred in the London gold market, with a surge in demand for gold withdrawals from the Bank of England, leading to extended waiting times for withdrawals.

The global central bank's increase in reserves also provides an "emotional" value impact. According to data released by the World Gold Council, central banks of most major economies have increased their procurement of gold reserves. The total global gold supply for the entire year of 2024 was 4,974.5 tons, while the total global gold demand for the same year was 4,553.7 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately -420.7 tons. The gold purchasing actions of global central banks cannot fundamentally change the structure of supply exceeding demand for gold, but rather serve to "ignite" market sentiment in the short term CITIC Construction Investment Securities Chief Macro Analyst Zhou Junzhi analyzed that in the short term, the fluctuation of gold futures and spot premiums may be difficult to stabilize completely before the clarity of tariffs, and cross-market arbitrage may still support gold prices. Since 2024, the traditional pricing logic of gold has clearly failed, reverting to supply and demand logic for pricing. The continuous strong purchasing of gold by global central banks, along with the significant increase in physical gold investment demand and ETF investment demand in Asia (especially China), are all reasons for the substantial rise in the gold price center. However, these factors are expected to weaken in 2025, so gold prices may transition from a favorable period to a volatile period in the future.

Huazhang Fund stated that the recent surge in gold prices is mainly due to the U.S. tariff policy proposals, which may increase the cost of imported goods in the U.S., leading to re-inflation risks. As an anti-inflation asset, gold is expected to benefit from this. Additionally, the tariff issue has increased economic uncertainty, which has somewhat driven safe-haven funds into gold. Although the variables for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, making it difficult to replicate the significant easing operations of previous rate-cutting cycles, the fact remains that we are in a rate-cutting cycle, and U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue to decline, providing support for gold prices.

Galaxy Securities believes that the three main mid-term logics for the rise in gold prices are: the global gold ETF funds increasing their holdings of gold under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, central bank purchases of gold influenced by geopolitical conflicts, and the credit devaluation hedging trades triggered by U.S. debt issues will continue to unfold, driving up gold prices. Currently, the valuation of the A-share gold sector is at a low point in recent years, and the new highs in gold prices are expected to trigger a valuation recovery for A-share gold stocks.

Related Concept Stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): According to the company's preliminary estimates, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately 32 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of about 10.881 billion yuan compared to 21.119 billion yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of approximately 51.5%. Zijin Mining's gold production last year was 73 tons, an increase of 5 tons compared to 68 tons in 2023, and gold production is expected to further grow to 85 tons in 2025.

SD-GOLD (01787): According to preliminary estimates, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company owners of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 372 million to 872 million yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 15.98% to 37.46%.

LINGBAO GOLD (03330): The company expects its full-year revenue for 2024 to be between approximately 11.587 billion and 11.903 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10% to 13%; net profit is expected to be between approximately 617 million and 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 110% to 140%