U.S. Stock Outlook | Philips Plummets After Earnings, Federal Reserve Minutes to be Released Soon

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of February 19 (Wednesday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures are mixed. At the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.03%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.87%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.40%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.73%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.65%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.88%, priced at $72.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.79%, priced at $76.44 per barrel.

Market News

How is the Federal Reserve preparing to "counter" Trump? Tonight's meeting minutes may reveal! Investors are eagerly hoping to understand the Federal Reserve's views on Trump's tariff policies and their inflation impacts. The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, may provide more clues. Senior officials of the Federal Reserve have publicly acknowledged that they are closely monitoring proposals from the White House. However, they also emphasize that inflation forecasts or interest rate decisions must be based on the current economic conditions, rather than on actions Trump may take. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes may reveal the extent to which policymakers discussed tariffs and potential responses, but it is unlikely to go beyond their public statements.

Not just steel and aluminum! Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on the automotive, chip, and pharmaceutical industries. President Trump has stated that he may impose approximately a 25% tariff on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, with an announcement as early as April 2. The new taxes on automobiles will have a comprehensive impact on the industry. About 8 million passenger cars and light trucks entered the U.S. last year, accounting for about half of U.S. auto sales. European automakers like Volkswagen and Asian automakers like Hyundai will be most affected, as a significant portion of their sales in the U.S. are imports.

"Go long on stocks, short everything else!" Institutional investor risk appetite reaches a 15-year high. According to a survey by Bank of America, global stocks have become the most favored asset class among investors, with the largest risk appetite seen in 15 years. The survey shows that fund managers' cash levels have fallen to the lowest since 2010. Meanwhile, 34% of respondents expect global stocks to be the best-performing asset by 2025. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated in a report that investors are "going long on stocks, short everything else." He stated that this optimistic sentiment is based on expectations of strong economic growth this year and a decline in U.S. interest rates. However, surveys show that about 89% of respondents believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest proportion since April 2001, and investors' confidence in the so-called "American exceptionalism" (mainly betting on the U.S. financial market) has also been shaken.

Gold hits a new high! On February 19, influenced by the latest U.S. foreign trade policy statements and a decline in the U.S. dollar index, gold strengthened again. Spot gold broke through $2,946 per ounce during trading, setting a new historical high. However, after reaching a new high, spot gold turned to decline. As of the time of writing, spot gold hovered around $2,933 per ounce. Recently, several major Wall Street banks have raised their gold price targets. Goldman Sachs significantly raised its 2025 year-end gold price forecast from $2,890 per ounce to $3,100; UBS expects the gold peak in 2025 to exceed $3,200 per ounce; the commodity strategy team at Bank of America expects that in the most optimistic scenario, gold prices could reach $3,500. However, Morgan Stanley expects that by the end of this year, gold prices will fall back to $2,700 per ounce, and may even drop to $2,400 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs latest assessment: A ceasefire in Ukraine will not lead to a surge in Russian oil production! Goldman Sachs stated that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the subsequent easing of sanctions against Russia are unlikely to significantly increase Russian oil flows. Goldman Sachs said: "We believe that Russian crude oil production is limited by its OPEC+ target of 9 million barrels per day, rather than current sanctions, which affect the destination of oil exports rather than production." In addition, Goldman Sachs expects that due to Russia and several other OPEC+ oil-producing countries beginning to make up for excess production, and the ongoing uncertainty of U.S. policies, OPEC+ may delay its planned gradual increase in production to July this year, rather than April. If this happens, it will be the fourth delay.

Individual Stock News

Philips (PHG.US) faces a "Waterloo" in China sales, Q4 performance falls short of expectations. Data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2024, Philips' total sales amounted to €5.04 billion (approximately $5.27 billion), while analysts' previous average expectation was €5.07 billion; adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) were €679 million, slightly lower than analysts' expectations of €683 million. Philips' Q4 sales did not meet market expectations, partly due to a double-digit decline in the Chinese market. The company expects comparable sales to grow by 1% to 3% in 2025 and stated that this forecast includes a mid-to-high single-digit percentage decline in sales in the Chinese market, as well as the impact of recently announced tariffs in the U.S. and China. As of the time of writing, Philips' stock fell more than 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) turns from profit to loss in Q4, sells $1.2 billion of upstream assets to repay debt. Due to environmental liabilities and falling oil prices, Occidental Petroleum reported a loss. For the quarter ending December 31, the company reported a loss of $297 million, compared to a profit of $1.03 billion in the same period last year. The company stated that the average realized price for crude oil in the fourth quarter was $69.73 per barrel, down from $78.85 per barrel in the same period last year However, the adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were $0.80, exceeding analysts' average expectation of $0.70, thanks to increased production. Additionally, Occidental Petroleum has completed two transactions this quarter, selling part of its upstream assets to unnamed buyers for a total of $1.2 billion. The company stated that it plans to use the proceeds from these transactions to pay down debt.

Intel (INTC.US) is nearing the sale of its Altera stake, with private equity giant Silver Lake potentially becoming the new owner. According to insiders, the private equity firm Silver Lake is in exclusive negotiations to acquire a majority stake in Intel's programmable chip business, Altera. Intel acquired Altera in 2015 for nearly $17 billion. This deal is expected to provide Intel with much-needed cash support. The chipmaker is currently exploring various options to reduce overall costs, including selling off businesses that can no longer rely on past substantial profits. Last year, Intel indicated it would seek to sell its stake in Altera as part of a broader plan to turn around its business. As of the time of writing, Intel's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose in pre-market trading. As of the time of writing, in pre-market trading on Wednesday, Beike (BEKE.US) and Li Auto (LI.US) rose nearly 5%, Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) and GDS Holdings (GDS.US) rose over 4%, XPeng (XPEV.US) rose nearly 4%, Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US) rose nearly 3%, and iQIYI (IQ.US) rose over 2%.

WeRide (WRD.US) fell in pre-market trading. In pre-market trading on Wednesday, WeRide initially rose before falling, having once increased over 7% before dropping over 9%, and as of the time of writing, it was down nearly 5%. WeRide had surged significantly in the past two trading days, closing up over 28% on Tuesday and over 83% last Friday. NVIDIA's disclosure of its 1.74 million shares in WeRide was a significant reason for the latter's recent stock price increase.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 21:30 U.S. January building permits month-on-month preliminary value

Beijing time 21:30 U.S. January new housing starts annualized month-on-month rate

Beijing time the next day 03:00 Federal Reserve releases January monetary policy meeting minutes

Earnings Forecasts

Thursday morning: Rio Tinto (RIO.US), Vale (VALE.US)

Thursday pre-market: Gold Fields (GFI.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), NetEase (NTES.US), Youdao (DAO.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), Autohome (ATHM.US), Walmart (WMT.US)