Goldman Sachs: In the era of intelligent driving, each car in China will be equipped with 5 cameras this year, and 10 cameras in 5 years

BYD recently announced that vehicles equipped with the "Tianyan" intelligent driving solution will be configured with 11-12 cameras, a significant increase compared to the current mainstream models (which have 4 cameras each).

On February 17, Goldman Sachs analysts Allen Chang, Verena Jeng, and others released a report stating that ADAS/AD (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems/Autonomous Driving) is expected to drive rapid growth in the shipment volume of vehicle cameras in China.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the shipment volume of vehicle cameras in China will reach 126 million by 2025 and increase to 343 million by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 22%.

In addition to the increase in quantity, Goldman Sachs also expects the trend of intelligent driving to drive upgrades in vehicle camera specifications, with cameras of 8MP (8 million pixels) and above accounting for 14% and 59% of total shipments in 2025 and 2030, respectively.

Intelligent Driving Drives Rapid Growth in Vehicle Camera Shipments

Goldman Sachs stated that the rapid growth in the shipment volume of vehicle cameras in China is mainly driven by the trend of intelligent driving, as intelligent driving technology is expected to enhance driving safety, reduce driver burden, and provide product differentiation to attract consumer purchases.

According to Goldman Sachs' analysis, the proportion of vehicles in China at levels L0, L1/L2, L2+/L3, and L4/L5 will be 23%, 57%, 20%, and 0% respectively in 2025, and by 2030, this proportion will change to 4%, 26%, 62%, and 8%.

As the proportion of higher-level autonomous vehicles increases, the average number of cameras per vehicle will rise from 5 in 2025 to 10 in 2030. Specifically:

L0 level: Vehicles will still have only 1 camera, mainly used for rearview parking;

L1/L2 level: The number of cameras in vehicles will increase from an average of 3 to 4 between 2025 and 2030, mainly driven by the popularity of 360-degree surround camera systems;

L2+/L3 level: The number of cameras in vehicles will increase from 11 to 13 between 2025 and 2030, mainly driven by the increase in the number of forward-facing cameras and the popularity of 360-degree surround camera systems;

L4/L5 level: The number of cameras in vehicles will show a downward trend, decreasing from an average of 12 to 11, which is related to software improvements.

Intelligent Driving Drives Upgrades in Vehicle Camera Specifications

In addition to quantity, Goldman Sachs also expects intelligent driving to drive upgrades in vehicle camera specifications, with the penetration rate of 8MP cameras expected to significantly increase in the future, accounting for 14% and 59% of total shipments in 2025 and 2030, respectively.

In the past, 8MP cameras were mainly used in models priced around 200,000 RMB, such as the XPeng G9, while Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2025, 8MP cameras will be equipped in models priced at around 80,000 RMB and above, such as the BYD DiPilot 100 The management of Weishi Semiconductor, which produces image sensors, also stated that the automotive camera market will gradually transition from 1.3MP to 3MP/8MP this year.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects vehicle camera specifications to exceed 8MP to provide better image quality and more detailed information to support ADAS/AD algorithms.

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