Federal Reserve officials release policy signals: will not hastily adjust interest rates and will continue to monitor AI risks

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials stated that the central bank will not hastily adjust interest rates until there is a clear downward trend in inflation, choosing instead to maintain existing policies to address potential economic risks in the future. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's increased focus on regulating AI technology suggests that financial markets may face stricter compliance requirements in the future.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, stated that although progress toward the 2% inflation target is slow and even difficult to perceive, there is no need to be discouraged. The U.S. central bank should continue to maintain its current tightening monetary policy until the downward trend in inflation becomes more evident.

Daly, speaking at the American Bankers Association Community Bank Conference in Phoenix, Arizona, said, "Policy needs to remain restrictive until... I see that we are indeed making sustained progress on inflation."

She pointed out that the U.S. economy and job market remain robust, so caution must be exercised before making the next adjustment to ensure sufficient downward pressure on inflation. "We need to carefully assess the situation before taking the next step to avoid making decisions too early."

At last month's meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and is expected to maintain this level in the coming meetings while observing changes in economic data and assessing the impact of a series of policies from the Trump administration (including tariffs, immigration, taxes, etc.) on inflation and employment.

Daly emphasized that these policies could either promote or suppress economic growth, labor supply, and inflation, with the specific impact depending on the "scope, scale, and timing" of the policies. However, there is currently insufficient information, and the Federal Reserve needs time to evaluate. "We must remain patient," she stated, believing that the current monetary policy environment is "in a very favorable position" to take strong measures when necessary.

According to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—the inflation rate at the end of 2023 is projected to be 2.6%, with some analysts expecting it to have dropped to 2.4% last month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the U.S. in January was 4%, below the long-term sustainable level perceived by most Federal Reserve officials.

Daly's views align with those of one of the most hawkish Federal Reserve officials, Governor Michelle Bowman. Bowman stated at the same event on Monday that she hopes to "gain greater confidence" before considering interest rate cuts, ensuring that inflation will continue to decline.

Daly also noted that a series of executive orders and policy statements from the Trump administration are creating significant uncertainty. "Ultimately, we need more information to determine the policy direction." She emphasized that the Federal Reserve needs to "remain vigilant and cautiously assess" to avoid making hasty decisions that may lead to regret.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr warned in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations that while the efficiency and automation characteristics of artificial intelligence (AI) present tremendous opportunities, they may also trigger new financial risks on a larger scale.

Financial regulators have long believed that emerging technologies like AI can significantly enhance productivity. However, Barr pointed out that the widespread application of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) could "lead to converging market behavior and risk concentration, thereby amplifying market volatility." "As GenAI agents are guided to maximize profits, they may converge on certain strategies, achieving profit maximization through coordinated market manipulation, which could fuel asset bubbles and trigger market crashes." He also pointed out that non-bank institutions may be more flexible and adventurous in adopting AI, which could lead to financial activities flowing more into the less regulated "gray areas." "We need to closely monitor the impact of GenAI on economic and political institutions," Barr stated, "There is a risk that AI could concentrate economic and political power, allowing benefits to be gained by only a few, while the majority are left behind."

He mentioned that the Federal Reserve has begun to adopt AI internally and has established a strict governance framework. Currently, the technology is being used for code testing and has improved work efficiency.

Barr is an official appointed by the Biden administration and announced last month that he would resign as Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve on February 28 or earlier to avoid controversy surrounding the position. However, he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board. Therefore, President Trump may need to appoint a successor from the existing board members.

Currently, the next vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board is not expected to arise until 2026, unless a member resigns early. Market analysts believe that Bowman is one of the potential successors, as she has previously publicly criticized some of Barr's regulatory policies.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at last week's congressional hearing that even without a Vice Chair for Supervision, the Federal Reserve can still advance its financial regulatory work. He pointed out that since the position was established, the policy fluctuations have been too large, "which is not a good thing for regulated institutions."