2025, the year of mass production for humanoid robots

In recent years, humanoid robot technology has rapidly developed, transitioning from concept to real-world applications. Various segments of the humanoid robot industry chain are accelerating collaboration, collectively driving this emerging industry to new heights.

On February 16, analysts Man Zaipeng, Qin Yanan, and Ran Ting from Guojin Securities released a report titled "Humanoid Robots: From Ideals to Reality," stating that humanoid robots have become one of the most certain directions for the future. With the arrival of the AI era and the intensification of population aging, humanoid robots are expected to become a golden track for the future. It is anticipated that the humanoid robot industry in 2025 can be summarized with two key terms: mass production and DeepSeek.

Mass Production Imminent, 2025 as a Key Node

The report points out that 2024 will be the inaugural year for the global release of humanoid robot prototypes, while 2025 is expected to be the inaugural year for mass production of humanoid robots, with a commercial application explosion anticipated by 2026. Several star companies in robot technology have already announced mass production plans:

• Tesla: Plans to produce 10,000 units of Optimus in 2025, starting mass production of 10,000 units per month in mid-2026, and reaching 500,000 units by 2027.

• FigureAI: Plans to mass-produce 100,000 humanoid robots in the next four years.

• 1XTechnologies: Expects to mass-produce thousands of NEO bipedal robots in 2025, scale up production in 2026, and reach a mass production target of millions by 2028.

  

Domestic companies such as UBTECH ROBOTICS and Yushu Technology are also actively promoting mass production. A significant leap from the concept of humanoid robots to real-world applications is about to arrive.

Comprehensive Upgrades in Software and Hardware, Industry Chain Gradually Maturing

With the layout of domestic and foreign tech giants and startups, the humanoid robot industry chain is taking shape. From hardware to software, from "big brains" to "small brains," all segments of the industry are rapidly iterating and upgrading. Policy support and capital favor have injected strong momentum into industry development. With technological advancements and cost reductions, humanoid robots are expected to be widely applied in industrial manufacturing, service industries, and other fields, ushering in a new era of robotics.

• Software: Rapid Progress in "Big Brains," Urgent Breakthroughs Needed for "Small Brains"

The report indicates that the "big brain" of humanoid robots is responsible for perceiving the external environment and simulating human thinking and decision-making, mainly including environmental understanding, intelligent interaction, and cognitive reasoning. Thanks to the development of large model technology, the robot brain is achieving leapfrog development in the industry, with the level of intelligence expected to improve, already preparing for basic human cognitive abilities. Currently, there are four technical routes: LLM+VFM hierarchical large models, VLM, VLA end-to-end large models, and multimodal large models.

The "cerebellum" is responsible for motion control, path planning, and gait balance. It is currently evolving from model-based control methods to learning-based control methods, but still faces challenges in data collection and generalization capabilities. At present, the technological bottleneck for the intelligent cerebellum of robots to be widely applied in general fields is robot motion control, which is the next key focus area for the industry.

• Hardware: The convergence of technical routes, with core capacity being key

The report points out that from the perspective of mass production, capacity is crucial. In recent years, domestic and foreign robot manufacturers have seen a hundred flowers bloom in hardware design solutions, and the overall route has now converged. Humanoid robot hardware is no longer a fundamental constraint; the difficulties mainly lie in large-scale manufacturing and cost reduction capabilities:

Lead Screw: The manufacturing difficulty of lead screws is relatively high, and capacity is also the most scarce, belonging to heavy asset and labor-intensive segments, making rapid short-term expansion challenging. The current lead screw capacity established in China is insufficient to meet the mass production demand for humanoid robots.

Reducer: The reducer is one of the core components of rotating actuators, serving to match speed and transmit torque between the prime mover and the working machine or actuator. Currently, there are technical route issues with harmonic reducers, planetary reducers, and innovative reducers.

Motor: Humanoid robot motors require three key points: high efficiency, high dynamics, and high power density. Hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors are the core motors for humanoid robots. Compared to overseas leaders, domestic frameless torque motors still have performance gaps, but the differences in key parameters with foreign companies are continuously narrowing.

Sensors: Humanoid robots require various types of sensors, primarily visual, tactile, and force sensors, to help perceive and analyze the external environment and respond to their own state, enabling complex interactions and operational tasks. There is an urgent need to cultivate domestic leaders in this area.

Dexterous Hands: The three key elements of structural design are drive, transmission, and perception. A typical dexterous hand consists of a drive system, transmission system, perception system, and control system. The technological iteration direction of dexterous hands is developing towards higher flexibility, soft perception, and intelligence.

Policy and Capital Dual-Drive, Industry Development Accelerates

1. Increased Policy Support

Since 2024, provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hubei, and Anhui have intensively introduced humanoid robot industry policies, providing support in areas such as technological breakthroughs, industrial development, and application demonstrations, with policy goals becoming more specific. Analysis suggests that local governments are placing greater emphasis on and refining the incubation, guidance, and support of the robot industry chain, which is expected to drive the accelerated development of the humanoid robot industry.

1. Capital Favor, Financing Boom Emerges

The year 2024 is set to be a significant year for the humanoid robot industry fund. In terms of scale, multiple industry funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan have been established, including the Shanghai National and Local Jointly Built Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, Shenzhen Artificial Intelligence and Embodied Robot Industry Fund, Wuzhong District Robot Industry Fund, and Xiamen Zhuichuang Robot Industry Venture Capital Fund. The funding gap in the robot industry may be filled in 2025 and 2026.

Domestically, humanoid robot manufacturers led by Yushu Technology and Galaxy General have continuously attracted capital, each securing over 1 billion yuan in financing in 2024. Internationally, established humanoid robot manufacturers like FigureAI and 1XTechnologies have also received investments exceeding 100 million USD. Analysis suggests that with the support of capital, the iteration and commercialization of humanoid robots are expected to accelerate.

Application Scenarios Gradually Expand, Commercialization Accelerates

The report also predicts that humanoid robots will first be applied in industrial manufacturing scenarios for training before ultimately achieving applications in home service scenarios.

In industrial manufacturing scenarios, Tesla's Optimus, UBTECH ROBOTICS' WalkerS, and Leju Kuafu have already been applied in automotive factories, responsible for repetitive tasks such as handling and quality inspection. Commercial fields include catering, fast-moving consumer goods, tourism/exhibitions, education and research, and medical services. Applications have already been implemented in exhibition explanations and research scenarios.

Subsequently, the application will gradually expand to more scenarios, and after optimization and iteration upgrades, it is expected to gradually land in the long term, opening up demand space for the consumer end.

Looking ahead, Guojin Securities believes that with the development of the industrial ecosystem, the industrial chain is expected to shift from vertical to segmented, forming a division of labor focused on robot software or robot hardware, and is optimistic about domestic robot chain original equipment manufacturers or assembly manufacturers.

It is worth noting that in November 2024, Huawei signed strategic cooperation agreements with Hechuan Technology, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and 16 other companies to collaborate in the field of embodied intelligence and jointly build an ecosystem. Analysts believe:

“Companies like Huawei, which possess the capability to develop embodied large models, are actively laying out related core technologies and industrial innovation empowerment, which is expected to provide domestic robot manufacturers with AI capabilities, helping them focus on the development of the body or application scenarios and achieve a leapfrog advantage.”

Note: The authors of the research report "Humanoid Robots: From Ideals to Reality" are Man Zai Peng, Qin Ya Nan, and Ran Ting