
Options traders invested 10 million yuan, betting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 5% in the next five weeks, setting a new high since 2023
Options traders are making large bets that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury will jump to 5% within the next five weeks. This latest bet means that if the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises by about 0.5 percentage points before the options expire, the bettors could earn returns of up to $10 million, nearly 10 times the premium paid. Similar bets (set to expire in a week) were made before Wednesday's CPI data showed a surge in U.S. inflation for January. While the size of the trade pales in comparison to last week's bets of over 100,000 contracts, the target yield for this options bet on U.S. Treasuries is significantly higher