Goldman Sachs executive: This is my last bullish email on US stocks for this quarter

According to Goldman Sachs strategist and Global Markets Managing Director Scott Rubner, the U.S. stock market is about to face a wave of short-selling attacks. In his latest report, he stated that this is the "last bullish email" he will send out for the first quarter of this year. Rubner holds a bullish view on U.S. stocks as we approach 2025, but current predictions indicate an impending negative turn, leading to a downward trend.

Rubner pointed out that the U.S. stock market is becoming increasingly crowded, and the momentum for buying on dips is weakening. "Market participants are everywhere, including retail traders, 401k fund inflows, year-start allocation funds, and corporations. The dynamics of capital flow demand are changing rapidly, and we are approaching negative seasonal factors."

The S&P 500 index has risen 3% since the beginning of the year. Even though this has been a sideways trade since December, the market has actually shown remarkable resilience. Neither the concerns from DeepSeek nor the tariffs from U.S. President Trump have triggered widespread market corrections. The higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Wednesday is a recent example, showing that despite the negative news, the U.S. stock market can still quickly rebound from intraday lows.

Rubner stated, "One thing I am most certain of is that the ability to achieve excess returns through large-scale buying on dips is beginning to fade." He listed a series of signs indicating weakened demand, including trend traders asymmetrically leaning towards market downturns. He expects that if the market declines, these CTAs will sell approximately $61 billion in U.S. stocks over the next month; whereas in a rising market scenario, there will only be about $10 billion in buying.

Corporate stock buybacks remain a significant support for the market, but their operational window will close on March 16. Meanwhile, Rubner noted that hedge funds have reintroduced a large amount of risk exposure to the market, with net buying in global stocks reaching the highest level in two months last week.

The emergence of retail buying power over the past 22 trading days remains a mystery. These traders have quickly bought on dips, leading to "huge" trading volumes, including a record three days of retail trading imbalances. These year-start capital flows often gradually fade as March approaches.

Rubner suggests paying attention to some tactical bearish trading strategies, including double binary options and put spread options on the S&P 500 index, so-called retrospective put hedges, or trading combinations of the Euro Stoxx 50 index and the euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate