IEA Monthly Report: Global Oil Supply Surplus Reduced, Demand Growth Strong
The IEA has cut its forecast for global oil supply surplus in 2025 by about 50% to 450,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 104.5 million barrels, while global oil demand is expected to reach a record daily average of 104 million barrels this year
On the 13th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for oil supply surplus in 2025 in its latest monthly report, mainly due to strong demand growth in Asia and the impact of U.S. sanctions on OPEC+ countries.
The IEA has cut its global oil supply surplus expectation for 2025 by about 50%, to 450,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day to 104.5 million barrels. Due to cold weather, global oil supply decreased by 950,000 barrels per day in January.
The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day, nearly 100,000 barrels higher than the prediction made two months ago. The report indicates that global oil demand is expected to reach a record average of 104 million barrels per day this year, and 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024.
China remains the largest driver of demand growth, with oil demand in China expected to increase by about 210,000 barrels per day in 2025. India and other Asian countries will account for an increasingly larger share of demand growth.
In January, Brent crude oil futures briefly surpassed $80 per barrel but then fell back below $75. The IEA stated:
"The oil market has repeatedly demonstrated its adaptability in the face of significant challenges, and this time is unlikely to be an exception."
The IEA expects oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day this year. Meanwhile, it has lowered its 2025 production expectations for OPEC+:
- OPEC+ production expectations have been cut by 170,000 barrels per day.
- Despite Western energy sanctions, Russia's oil production forecast for this year has only been slightly adjusted downward. The IEA expects Russia's average production forecast for 2025 to be revised down from 10.76 million barrels per day to 10.61 million barrels per day. The daily production is expected to reach 9.25 million barrels, a downward revision of 150,000 barrels from last month's forecast.
- The IEA expects the OPEC+ alliance to cancel its production increase plans, despite Trump's call for the organization to "lower oil prices."