The demand outlook for shingles and hepatitis B vaccines is unclear, Goldman Sachs is bearish on Dynavax Tech

Zhitong
2025.02.12 03:54
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Goldman Sachs downgraded Dynavax Tech's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell," lowering the target price from $15 to $12 due to the uncertain demand outlook for its shingles and hepatitis B vaccines. Analyst Paul Choi noted that increased competition in the shingles vaccine market could impact the potential value of the Z-1018 project. Dynavax Tech expects net product revenue for HEPLISAV-B to be $268 million in 2024, a 26% increase. As of Tuesday's market close, Dynavax Tech fell 3.79%, closing at $12.70

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs has downgraded Dynavax Tech (DVAX.US) from "Neutral" to "Sell," and reduced the target price from $15 to $12 due to the unclear demand outlook for its shingles vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine.

Goldman Sachs analyst Paul Choi stated that the competition in the shingles vaccine market is intensifying, which may reduce the potential value of Dynavax Tech's Z-1018 project and increase the uncertainty of its long-term revenue.

It is understood that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US) is expected to enhance the convenience of vaccination with its shingles vaccine Shingrix pre-filled syringe, which has had its market application accepted by the U.S. FDA and the European Medicines Agency (EMA). A decision is expected in the U.S. on June 20.

Dynavax Tech is conducting a Phase 1/2 trial to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of Z-1018 compared to Shingrix. This trial is being conducted on 441 healthy adults aged 50 to 69.

Choi also mentioned that there is uncertainty regarding the demand for repeat hepatitis B vaccinations in the 2030s, which may affect the prospects of Heplisav-B.

Last month, Dynavax Tech estimated that the net product revenue for HEPLISAV-B in 2024 would be $268 million, a year-on-year increase of 26%.

The net product revenue for HEPLISAV-B in the fourth quarter of 2024 reached $71 million, a growth of 39%.

In May 2024, the FDA issued a complete response letter stating that the company did not provide sufficient data to adequately assess the efficacy or safety of the HEPLISAV-B four-dose regimen.

Dynavax Tech is expected to announce its fourth-quarter financial report on February 20. The market expects the company's adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be $0.04, with sales of $72.92 million.

Analysts predict sales of $278 million for 2024, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.12.

As of Tuesday's market close, Dynavax Tech fell 3.79%, closing at $12.70

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