JP Morgan: Three Surprises of BYD's Intelligent Driving

BYD's intelligent driving system brings three major surprises, overturning market expectations and leading industry transformation.

At yesterday's press conference, BYD Chairman and Founder Wang Chuanfu announced that 21 BYD models will be equipped with this system, covering all models priced over 100,000 yuan, as well as some models priced below 100,000 yuan.

JP Morgan stated that the intelligent driving system released by BYD brought three positive surprises, overturning the general market expectations:

1. Significant decrease in starting price for configurations: New models equipped with the highway NOA solution have starting prices as low as 69,800-79,800 yuan, far below the previously expected 90,000-100,000 yuan. This pricing strategy is expected to accelerate the popularization of autonomous driving technology in the mass market.

2. Prices remain almost unchanged: Contrary to market expectations, BYD's model prices remain almost unchanged after adding the NOA feature, likely benefiting from economies of scale and supplier price reductions (about 15-20%).

3. Wide coverage of models: BYD announced that it will upgrade or equip 21 models with the NOA solution, and it is expected that by the end of this year, about 80-85% of the vehicles sold domestically each month will be equipped with this feature.

JP Morgan emphasized that the standard high-level intelligent driving feature in most of the 21 models is a major highlight, expected to drive rapid increases in the industry's autonomous driving penetration rate:

BYD will equip the highway NOA feature for 21 models in the Dynasty and Ocean series with starting prices as low as 70,000 yuan, without raising prices. We previously expected that only models with starting prices around 90,000-100,000 yuan would be equipped with this feature.

This move is expected to drive rapid increases in the industry's autonomous driving penetration rate and strengthen BYD's product competitiveness in the mass market. The penetration rate of autonomous driving features in BYD's domestically sold vehicles is expected to reach about 40%-50% for the entire year of 2025, and by the end of the year, the penetration rate in monthly sold vehicles will reach 80-85%, which is expected to be higher than most peers.

Overall, JP Morgan believes:

BYD will continue to expand its market share with highly competitive model reserves and promote the penetration rate of autonomous driving features in the automotive industry through extensive distribution channels and coverage of different price ranges (compared to peers like Huawei or XPeng).

JP Morgan's analysis predicts that BYD's global delivery volume is expected to reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with about 1.5 million units in overseas markets. This means that BYD's share in the global light vehicle market will expand from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026. Meanwhile, its share in the new energy vehicle market is expected to remain around 22%. JP Morgan also expects that after the performance period ends in March, the consensus market expectations for its 2025 earnings are likely to be raised.