The market awaits Powell's speech as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.5%

The Zhitong Finance APP noted that U.S. Treasury prices fell as traders expect Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to reiterate the maintenance of unchanged monetary policy in his speech later on Tuesday.

The yield on U.S. long-term bonds rose slightly by 3 basis points, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at approximately 4.52%. The U.S. dollar index remained stable after rising for two consecutive days.

Last month, the Federal Reserve hinted at extending the rate hike timeline, and the market will focus on Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for policy clues. U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen in recent trading days due to the economic outlook being overshadowed by trade tariffs from President Donald Trump, and Powell may be asked about the potential impact of these tariffs on economic growth and inflation.

Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar stated, "Powell may acknowledge the strength of the U.S. economy but will also recognize the risks of inflation." He expects a repeat of the situation from the last Federal Reserve press conference. "We maintain our view on the range of interest rates."

The money market expects the Federal Reserve to ease rates by about 36 basis points by the end of the year. Following a strong employment report in January, the inflation data released on Wednesday may provide further evidence of economic prosperity.

Bond traders will also pay attention to U.S. Treasury auctions, starting Tuesday with the auction of $58 billion in three-year Treasury bonds, followed by the auction of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds over the next two days. Analysts expect yields to remain high until the economic outlook becomes clearer.

Standard Bank G-10 strategist Stephen Barrow stated, "Given the uncertainty of the new government's policies, which are likely to change, it is unrealistic to expect the Federal Reserve to establish a clear path forward."