Goodbye to American exceptionalism! Barclays: Valuations are too high, it's time to go long on European stocks and short on American stocks

As the U.S. stock market faces increasing risks, including economic uncertainty and earnings concentrated in a few companies, Barclays' global equity trading strategist Alexander Altmann stated that now is a good time to turn to other stock markets.

On February 10, media reports indicated that Altmann, in an interview, pointed out that given U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, he recommends at least temporarily "shorting the American exceptionalism." Altmann emphasized:

"This is tactical; I just think this narrative has little upside in the short term."

Notably, over the past two months, Altmann has been optimistic about Europe, considering this strategy a "winter rental" trade. Despite the lingering shadow of potential trade conflicts with the U.S., European stocks' benchmark index remains near historical highs due to the optimism brought by robust corporate earnings.

Data shows that in U.S. dollar terms, the European Stoxx 600 index has had its best historical start this year relative to the S&P 500, partly due to the underperformance of some U.S. tech giants.

In recent years, driven by these large-cap stocks, the U.S. benchmark index has significantly outperformed the European index. Over the past five years, the total return of U.S. stocks has been about twice that of European stocks, rising nearly 100%.

However, market sentiment seems to be shifting towards cheaper European stocks. The political situation in the UK and France is more stable, and policymakers at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England appear increasingly dovish, especially compared to the Federal Reserve. Moreover, U.S. tariff policies are more often seen as a negotiation tool.

Meanwhile, the "Seven Giants" stock index has had a flat start in 2025, and the market is becoming increasingly skeptical of the U.S.'s dominant position in AI technology. A survey by Bank of America last month showed that investors' allocation to European stocks shifted from a 22% underweight to a 1% overweight, marking the second-largest increase in exposure to the European continent in twenty-five years.

Bank of America's strategists share a similar view with Altmann, noting that the influence of U.S. tech giants' stocks is waning and emphasizing that many other global markets have returns exceeding the S&P 500 this year. Altmann believes this indicates:

"Strategies that have worked very well over the past two years may become less effective this year. Investors should look for opportunities outside of U.S. stocks and AI trades... The high long positions held by hedge funds put U.S. stocks in an unstable position."

While being optimistic about European stocks, Altmann also cautioned that stocks in the region may become more volatile ahead of the German elections later this month, although this could create buying opportunities